showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Mentioned yesterday that we shouldn't bale on our weekend chances quite yet because we were seeing the models handle the energy in the southwest differently and the overnight runs seem to be starting to agree. Below is the Sunday 12z run of the EPS. Notice that we have energy ejecting out of the southwest. The problem we have here though is that we have fairly strong High pressure moving almost due south which is essentially crushing this energy into nonexistence. GEFS had very similar solution on past runs as well. What we needed to see happen is that the High pressure take a more easterly track and/or come in weaker. Well below we are seeing exactly that (GEFS is very similar). Not only are we seeing the HIgh come in weaker we are also seeing more easterly move and these changes are allowing an avenue for the energy to move eastward. Below we have the overnight EPS mean snowfall through that period. The mean has increased roughly an inch region wide from the 12z run. Control run (basically lower resolution of the op run) runs a swath of snow through southern MD/central Va. Half the members get 2+ inches of snow through portions of the region (N VA to the PA line). 20% of the members get warning criteria snow through all or portions of the Balt/DC corridor. The overnight GEFS snowfall mean saw roughly a half inch increase from the 12Z run. Looking at the individual members we saw a better look overall as well. Not saying this is happening, we are roughly 5 days out after all, but the models did make a good move towards the possibility. One thing to be aware of though with this current setup is that we may very well be talking marginal temps. The very thing that allows a system to possibly impact our region (changes w/ High pressure) also doesn't allow a great press of cold through our region. So a sizable chunk of the southern portion of the precip field could very well be rain. But that would be something to evaluate a couple/3 days down the road if in fact there is a system to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Interesting solution on the 06Z GFS for the possible weekend snow. Actually much more progressive with the High pressure and we see it out race the SW ejected energy so we see it retreating eastward OTS before we get the energy in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like the 6z Gefs keeps the theme for the weekend...another little bump in the mean qpf and snow Yeah another 1/2 inch increase region wide (eta: actually 1/4-1/2 increase cities and N/W). Not really going to dive into an off run (6Z GEFS) but the timing on the features have seen a change. Now whether this an aberration or whether the model is evolving it is hard to say right now. But I am not sure I like seeing the High retreating OTS (on this run) instead of pressing down from the north (Previous runs) as the energy runs through our region. I can see how that could quickly become an issue (Warm/Rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Overnight timing would help and not having a pesky great lakes low to muck the mids up is nice. The Eps members that hit us mostly keep at least a thin ribbon ( just enough ) of high pressure north of the area thru the storm Yeah even though the High is sliding east, there is nothing to the NW to screw up the low and mid levels. Also the sw takes a perfect pass and the developing surface low is fairly weak and offshore. If it ends up further north/stronger, this could easily be another light to moderate rain event, especially for I-95 S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 10 hours ago, psuhoffman said: 2. If it is over then yes this is one of the worst 2 year stretches ever. But we just came off one of the best 3 years ever. So at the end the last 5 years balances out. Climo is a bunch of anomalies. You can't only look micro. Can't tell you how much I agree with this. Too many people use climo as a forcast and the most likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 42 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: LOL The latest weeklies would likely look a lot different if they were initialized off of the latest EPS cycle. Wonder if he mentions that the run is already obsolete, based on the pretty big changes on the EPS at day 15 on the 2 most recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 8 hours ago, Interstate said: I just viewed the snowfall map for 12/8-10 and it would count as region wide snowfall. But it is big brother that created the weather models correct. They created an inferior product when it comes to the long range... 5+ days plus (50% of the time 3+ days). If you owned any product that was wrong 90% of the time, would you keep it out to the public? I would like to know... what is the accuracy of the models 5+days. I bet it cannot be that high. How many times this year alone has the ensembles flip within just one run... What happened to the great periods in December and February that ensembles were advertising... just to flip in a couple of runs. If you'd like to share your magic weegie board w/ the rest of us, we'll play w/ that for a while and see what we spin up. This year has perfectly proven that ALL models can have a high fail rate. The problem here is many look at a model and follow it off the meteo cliff. and complain when "it doesnt happen". the truth of the matter, is that you need to use them as a tool and also integrate objective analysis based on tellies/indicies/strat etc. when trying to conjure up your best guess as to what can/will happen at any lead time. Many amateurs here (sometimes myself included), do not possess that skill. They see something and run w/ it. "Big brother" has some of the best minds/talent working to create the best product they can, and while I understand the frustration by looking at digital snow (and post once in a while in fun), many of us know better than to just follow the model that gives you what you want. It really IS that simple. Many seem to forget that when gazing at perty colors on digital snow panels in their backyard. The complaining that comes from doing so, has frustrated many of us (and i know a few who have considered or have left the boards because of it. Weather is not instagram/snapchat...and instant gratification is not guaranteed. In truth, its more like an online dating board. Sometimes what you see and what you get are nowhere close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The latest weeklies would likely look a lot different if they were initialized off of the latest EPS cycle. Wonder if he mentions that the run is already obsolete, based on the pretty big changes on the EPS at day 15 on the 2 most recent runs. Probably not because it doesn't support his agenda for an early start to spring and plenty of rain, but the weeklies could still end up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I know its an op run at 384 but it illustrates well how the pattern could look down the road. This looks very similar to the gefs.... Looks like plenty of systems poised to cut under the block and cold enough air around. ETA: yea...1070 high over GL..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 7 hours ago, Interstate said: I just viewed the snowfall map for 12/8-10 and it would count as region wide snowfall. But it is big brother that created the weather models correct. They created an inferior product when it comes to the long range... 5+ days plus (50% of the time 3+ days). If you owned any product that was wrong 90% of the time, would you keep it out to the public? I would like to know... what is the accuracy of the models 5+days. I bet it cannot be that high. How many times this year alone has the ensembles flip within just one run... What happened to the great periods in December and February that ensembles were advertising... just to flip in a couple of runs. No WE created it because we are the government. Our taxes fund it. Our votes determine the leaders of it. Those leaders then hire from our population to run it. There is no big brother just people from among us that do the jobs we need to have society. If they are using public money to fund it then the public has a right to see it. I disagree with your view on their uselessness. They have advertised every major pattern shift well. They are inaccurate to people that don't know what their doing and believe Day 10 snow maps and specific storm details. But they nailed each flip of the epo and ensuing cold. Most of us knew the threat of dry was an issue earlier. And we also said we might end up on the wrong side of the gradient now. I was up in pa Sunday and they have a glacier now. We were close. But the general pattern was as advertised. I'm not complaining because they worked fine for me. So your telling me I can't see them because some others don't know what their doing? And why do you keep bringing up accuracy anyways. I don't care if it's the cras if it's there let people see it. It's up to us to be smart enough. Hiding things from the public to keep them calm like good little sheep sounds kinda Orwellian to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 14 hours ago, Chris78 said: I counted 18 or 19 members from the 12z eps that get snow into part of the forum or all of the forum. Some focused north and some south. Nice increase of members over the 0z run. There are a few big hits in there. There are atleast 26 eps members that get snow to us over the weekend. Some centered for the northern crew. Some are south and some are flush hits for the entire forum. A significant increase over both eps runs from yesterday. Overall pretty positive. The only negative I would take from it is that there are more hits in there for pa north where as yesterday most was centered over us or south of us. But overall a big jump on the amount that snow on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 The GEPS continues to slowly warm up to the weekend threat with its best run yet. Over half of the members in the 00z run give mby at least 1". Northern areas are favored again. Yesterday the 00z GGEM followed the 12z GEPS, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it come in with something similar today. Last week I mentioned that the 21-day control run gave parts of the region 20+" on the 28th. That time period is starting to show up in the normal 16-day ensemble window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: If you'd like to share your magic weegie board w/ the rest of us, we'll play w/ that for a while and see what we spin up. This year has perfectly proven that ALL models can have a high fail rate. I disagree to an extent. Yes, ops have teased and pulled the rug a lot this year but I can't think of a single time they did it under 72 hours. The early December storm backed in under 72 hours but other than that, all opportunities (as meager as they've been) have done well from 72 hours in. Ensemble guidance *in general* has done remarkably well d10+. Especially the CFS. Specific sensible wx is what frustrates people the most but ops d4+ have never been reliable except for rare cases. I don't see how this winter is any different than any other year with mid range stuff. The problem is that the MA has fallen short on almost all ops so it's very memorable and not in a good way. But that doesn't mean models have had a high fail rate. They've done pretty well. It depends on expectations so the grading is subjective. Now that we seem to be headed towards the first real Atlantic block in Jan 2011, ops will probably start doing better in the d4-5+ range but better still includes head fakes and run over run jumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I disagree to an extent. Yes, ops have teased and pulled the rug a lot this year but I can't think of a single time they did it under 72 hours. The early December storm backed in under 72 hours but other than that, all opportunities (as meager as they've been) have done well from 72 hours in. Ensemble guidance *in general* has done remarkably well d10+. Especially the CFS. Specific sensible wx is what frustrates people the most but ops d4+ have never been reliable except for rare cases. I don't see how this winter is any different than any other year with mid range stuff. The problem is that the MA has fallen short on almost all ops so it's very memorable and not in a good way. But that doesn't mean models have had a high fail rate. They've done pretty well. It depends on expectations so the grading is subjective. Now that we seem to be headed towards the first real Atlantic block in Jan 2011, ops will probably start doing better in the d4-5+ range but better still includes head fakes and run over run jumps. Totally agree and basically what I was trying to say but I am not as good with words as you. The general patterns the guidance showed us at day 15 has been remarkably accurate all winter. We knew our issue in Dec and Jan was going to be dry....but with a little luck we easily could have had one decent snowfall. We missed one storm barely east...another 3-5" storm barely north...we did luck out with the one early December system but one more and it wouldn't have been a bad period. Then we knew the thread with this pattern now was to end up on the wrong side of the gradient. We just missed 2 systems...central PA got smoked twice in the last week...and now there is one last wave that will give us a chance this weekend before the pattern breaks down and we torch for a few days while things are in transition. What we are seeing now at day 15 is the first time this year the guidance has hinted at NAO blocking. They have not teased us with that look...and btw the look from last nights guidance is exciting...If we want a March save that is the look we want. Last winter the GEFS teased us several times with blocking so it was fair to doubt it...we did finally get some blocking in March and it almost produced a late save. But this is the first time since January 2016 that I can remember ALL the long range guidance looking this way and agreeing on a 2-3 STD block in a location we want. And before anyone tries, I am NOT saying we get another January 2016, storms like that require blocking AND luck. We might get the blocking but we would still need luck and most of the time those types of things happen in a nino. But we have had plenty of very respectable snowstorms during -NAO nina patterns. The fact that the models have been pretty good with the patterns so far doesn't mean it can't fail but I think it has a chance...and those saying models suck so its wrong aren't following what's really happening. There is a huge difference between ops getting the track of a storm from 12 days wrong and all the ensembles being wrong on the location of major pattern features. I am feeling cautiously optimistic we will be tracking legitimate threats in March this year. Then its up to luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I disagree to an extent. Yes, ops have teased and pulled the rug a lot this year but I can't think of a single time they did it under 72 hours. The early December storm backed in under 72 hours but other than that, all opportunities (as meager as they've been) have done well from 72 hours in. Ensemble guidance *in general* has done remarkably well d10+. Especially the CFS. Specific sensible wx is what frustrates people the most but ops d4+ have never been reliable except for rare cases. I don't see how this winter is any different than any other year with mid range stuff. The problem is that the MA has fallen short on almost all ops so it's very memorable and not in a good way. But that doesn't mean models have had a high fail rate. They've done pretty well. It depends on expectations so the grading is subjective. Now that we seem to be headed towards the first real Atlantic block in Jan 2011, ops will probably start doing better in the d4-5+ range but better still includes head fakes and run over run jumps. Very true. In general, it seems the models locked in by Day 4, no threat really ever made it any farther. LR teased quite a bit, but (especially) GFS was pretty much cash in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 GFS running flat again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 We can score in the first two weeks of March if the right ingredients come together (Plenty of past examples). If we get the advertised blocking it will at least provide some tracking opportunities during that period. Echoing what Bob has said many times in the past, paraphrasing "Even if all the right ingredients come together we still need a healthy dose of luck to score snow around here". I would say that statement is even more prescient when talking about March threats in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: GFS running flat again Probably the best possible outcome. We don't have a lot of room with surface and midlevel temps. If we get under 3 days and need a south trend then we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 what a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Probably the best possible outcome. We don't have a lot of room with surface and midlevel temps. now its become like the GFS we are used too...big time differences between runs 4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 12z GGEM is precip decent... going to have to wait to see what type 2mT support snow... looks like a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Probably the best possible outcome. We don't have a lot of room with surface and midlevel temps. yep...getting zero precip is a great recipe for a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: what a disaster Better than showing a hit North of us. We've seen it before. If it were to show the perfect hit for us right now, we'd be pretty much fooked lol. Better than what the ICON/0z GGEM were showing and even the EPS last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just now, Ji said: now its become like the GFS we are used too...big time differences between runs 4 days out Weak shortwave in progressive flow. They are never modeled well in the med range. Flat and south is a win d4+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: what a disaster Yup, GFS is heading south again. It'll probably keep going back and forth for another 5 runs before the ultimate screwing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just now, Ji said: yep...getting zero precip is a great recipe for a snowstorm When it's raining in Leesburg and snowing in Harrisburg you'll be wishing the GFS was further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 well that op run was a disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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