February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

[poolz1]

Gefs almost look like they are trying to form a rex block over the N ATL.  IF we are going to pull a hail mary, that is one way to get some anomalous weather.

[frd]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

So the 12z GEFS and GEPS runs at day 15 look remarkably similar to the week 3 CFS. Hot off the presses, here is the 12z CFS for week 4:

 

Hey, hold on,  I know JB hacked that run   

Or possibly Mr Chill , appears vaguely familiar :-) 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

16 minutes ago, frd said:

Hey, hold on,  I know JB hacked that run   

Or possibly Mr Chill , appears vaguely familiar :-) 

Similar result from the farthest back cfs weekly available

[Bob Chill]

44 minutes ago, frd said:

Hey, hold on,  I know JB hacked that run   

Or possibly Mr Chill , appears vaguely familiar :-) 

The most impressive thing about the CFS is that it's been showing the SSW for like a month and it's also been showing the same late Feb/early Mar pattern for 2-3 weeks. Won't know if it's right until it happens but I have a hunch it is and if so, absolutely amazing long lead performance. Weeklies taken out to the woodshed and beat to a pulp.

[Bob Chill]

59 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Gefs almost look like they are trying to form a rex block over the N ATL.  IF we are going to pull a hail mary, that is one way to get some anomalous weather.

I'm even more impressed with d16 closed upper low in the 50/50 location. I don't recall ever seeing that before at 2 week leads. 

 

[Bob Chill]

@psuhoffman

We either have a postcard scene of deep cold smoke for weeks on end or its a disaster. There is no middle ground. Many people complained with the Feb 14 storm because it got warm and mixed during the lull...after getting a foot plus... Getting a foot of snow should be a reason to disrobe 100% of the time imho. 

On the other hand, everybody is entitled to their opinion. It's all subjective. What I think is acceptable is just my opinion and everybody has their own view. We should all be fine with that. One thing Internet forums have in common is some people love to complain about anything and everything.  It goes way beyond weather. My uncle is pathological and habitual complainer. Nothing and I mean NOTHING is good enough. He's the kind of person who could make a bet on an NFL game, win, and then complain all night that he should have bet more money. We all know plenty of those people IRL. I'm just glad I'm not one of them. That's no way to live in my opinion. For some people it's a great way to live and wouldn't have it any other way. 

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

We either have a postcard scene of deep cold smoke for weeks on end or its a disaster. There is no middle ground. Many people complained with the Feb 14 storm because it got warm and mixed during the lull...after getting a foot plus... Getting a foot of snow should be a reason to disrobe 100% of the time imho. 

On the other hand, everybody is entitled to their opinion. It's all subjective. What I think is acceptable is just my opinion and everybody has their own view. We should all be fine with that. One thing Internet forums have in common is some people love to complain about anything and everything.  It goes way beyond weather. My uncle is pathological and habitual complainer. Nothing and I mean NOTHING is good enough. He's the kind of person who could make a bet on an NFL game, win, and then complain all night that he should have bet more money. We all know plenty of those people IRL. I'm just glad I'm not one of them. That's no way to live in my opinion. For some people it's a great way to live and wouldn't have it any other way. 

I don't mind anyone being unhappy about our lack of snow but complaining every day seems crazy.  It also seems like some people don't realize how rare getting the amount of snow they  seem to need and expect is. Their setting themselves up to be unhappy most of the time. 

[Interstate]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't mind anyone being unhappy about our lack of snow but complaining every day seems crazy.  It also seems like some people don't realize how rare getting the amount of snow they  seem to need and expect is. Their setting themselves up to be unhappy most of the time. 

It is more so the length of time without a good snow fall... when was the last time we have even seen a 3-5 incher region wide that has stuck to the road.  Jan 2016?  I know we have butted head on this in the past... but this is why I think models should only go out 5 days to the public.  You would have a lot more sane weather people.  I also know you like the ensembles... but they flip as fast as the OP anymore.

[Interstate]

Now the CMC/ICON is showing more of what our winter has been like this year and the GFS is not buying any for Saturday

[cbmclean]

Is the SSW event already over/currently in process/about to start?  I know it doesn't look like it is going to do much for us (at least in terms of a favorable pattern), but I am curious if it causes any significant impact anywhere.

[Chris78]

Night and day between the gfs and the cmc/icon. GFS has basically no wave along the front and the cmc/icon is trending more amped. World's apart right now. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Interstate said:

It is more so the length of time without a good snow fall... when was the last time we have even seen a 3-5 incher region wide that has stuck to the road.  Jan 2016?  I know we have butted head on this in the past... but this is why I think models should only go out 5 days to the public.  You would have a lot more sane weather people.  I also know you like the ensembles... but they flip as fast as the OP anymore.

We had a 2-5" across the region in December. But "it didn't stick to roads" gets thrown in as a disqualifyer now. We aren't a snowy enough place to be picky like that. And I think maybe some people shouldn't look at them for their own sanity but you cannot force ignorance on everyone just because it would be better for some not to know.  People have rights and free will. We don't need big brother deciding what's best for us all. 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Is the SSW event already over/currently in process/about to start?  I know it doesn't look like it is going to do much for us (at least in terms of a favorable pattern), but I am curious if it causes any significant impact anywhere.

The strat and troposphere don't hold hands when it comes to sensible wx so there is no immediate impact. However, the destruction of the strat pv will have a lagged effect on the hemispheric pattern. Approx 20 days give or take is the typical lag.

The strong ridging showing up in the north atlantic on the ensemble means is almost without question the lagged response with the decimation of the strat pv. That can be a very favorable upper level pattern for storms to track south of our region instead of north and west. Nothing is guaranteed but if the ensemble means have it right, we're no doubt heading towards the best upper level pattern for favorable storm tracks all winter. Could still miss or be too warm for snow but we're going to be a helluva lot better off than we've been for the last 3 months. Nobody can say with any certainty that we get a good storm or continue missing out. It's a waiting game but don't write off the next 2 weeks either. Many of our snow storms look like crap on paper leading in. 

[Chris78]

The differences at h5 are pretty staggering. If we can split the differnce we would be in good shape. 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Night and day between the gfs and the cmc/icon. GFS has basically no wave along the front and the cmc/icon is trending more amped. World's apart right now. 

Still 4-5 days out so large spread is expected. Especially with progressive flow. We'll start seeing convergence towards a similar solution tomorrow and it will prob narrow fairy quickly from there. Just have to hope we're still close by 72 hours out. 

[cbmclean]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The strat and troposphere don't hold hands when it comes to sensible wx so there is no immediate impact.

Yes, I know that there is a significant lag between the two; I was just wondering what the current status is of the actual stratospheric event.  Even if it doesn't give us anything here, I am a hard-core cryophile, so I will be following to see if anywhere in the NH get's a significant cold snap.

By the way, I appreciate your knowledge and analysis.

[Rtd208]

So true

 

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Yes, I know that there is a significant lag between the two; I was just wondering what the current status is of the actual stratospheric event.  Even if it doesn't give us anything here, I am a hard-core cryophile, so I will be following to see if anywhere in the NH get's a significant cold snap.

By the way, I appreciate your knowledge and analysis.

Ah, gotchya.

Current status is the strat pv got punched right in the face, got sunburn, and split into 2 lobes as we speak. 

Strat splits and blocking is much less of a driver of extreme cold in the mid latitudes than things like cross polar flow and a -epo and things like that.  It does promote winter wx in the mid latitudes though on all sides of the globe. Just hope it works for North America this time. 

[Interstate]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We had a 2-5" across the region in December. But "it didn't stick to roads" gets thrown in as a disqualifyer now. We aren't a snowy enough place to be picky like that. And I think maybe some people shouldn't look at them for their own sanity but you cannot force ignorance on everyone just because it would be better for some not to know.  People have rights and free will. We don't need big brother deciding what's best for us all. 

I just viewed the snowfall map for 12/8-10 and it would count as region wide snowfall.

 

But it is big brother that created the weather models correct.  They created an inferior product when it comes to the long range... 5+ days plus (50% of the time 3+ days).  If you owned any product that was wrong 90% of the time, would you keep it out to the public?  I would like to know... what is the accuracy of the models 5+days.  I bet it cannot be that high.

 

How many times this year alone has the ensembles flip within just one run... What happened to the great periods in December and February that ensembles were advertising... just to flip in a couple of runs. 

[Amped]

GFS long range showing the great atlantic low part II. Too far south for snow, but interesting to see a storm that big in the central atlantic.

[cae]

39 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The differences at h5 are pretty staggering. If we can split the differnce we would be in good shape. 

32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Still 4-5 days out so large spread is expected. Especially with progressive flow. We'll start seeing convergence towards a similar solution tomorrow and it will prob narrow fairy quickly from there. Just have to hope we're still close by 72 hours out. 

It's good to see that at least we're still in the spread.  The Ukie looks like it is somewhere in between the GFS and GGEM / ICON, but closer to the GGEM / ICON camp.  The GGEM and ICON spin up a coastal that's NE of Maine at 144.  The Ukie has it as well, but the GFS has nothing.

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=gfs&hh2=144&comp=2&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

[cae]

Euro's back to something similar to what it had on Saturday.  Big shift from 12z.

[Ji]

Yep. Euro is back

[CAPE]

 

6 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm even more impressed with d16 closed upper low in the 50/50 location. I don't recall ever seeing that before at 2 week leads. 

 

And... still there at 0z. Block looking nasty and right where we want it (just like CFS has been advertising). Goodbye SE ridge.

 

[CAPE]

EPS has made some big strides over the past 2 runs. Also has a 50-50-ish low under a big block.

[CAPE]

I counted only 18 EPS members with clearly warm temp anomalies for our region by day 15. Thats way down from a couple runs ago. Many have avg/below avg temps, and a few look really cold. The -NAO doing its work.

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yep. Euro is back

And now the 6z GFS has it.

[Ji]

And now the 6z GFS has it.

Looks like we have something to track till Saturday and then we catch our breath...blowtorch and then hecs haha

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS has made some big strides over the past 2 runs. Also has a 50-50-ish low under a big block.

What a difference a couple of days makes in regards to the EPS. Went from what was probably a shutout pattern for the rest of the winter to one that is interesting to say the least. Besides the blocking now showing what really makes this is the trop pv now showing lobing extending out towards the 50/50 region. With the GEFS, GEPS and the EPS now showing very similar looks it is hard not to get just a little bit excited. ***And yes, to all you complainers it could very well change so please don't post this fact a couple dozen of times***

I could almost guarantee with what is now showing up on the models it would make for some very interesting tracking. Not saying tons of snow because this look isn't a particularly cold look but it would be interesting none the less with quite a bit of high side potential if temps cooperate.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

What a difference a couple of days makes in regards to the EPS. Went from what was probably a shutout pattern for the rest of the winter to one that is interesting to say the least. Besides the blocking now showing what really makes this is the trop pv now showing lobing extending out towards the 50/50 region. With the GEFS, GEPS and the EPS now showing very similar looks it is hard not to get just a little bit excited. ***And yes, to all you complainers it could very well change so please don't post this fact a couple dozen of times***

I could almost guarantee with what is now showing up on the models it would make for some very interesting tracking. Not saying tons of snow because this look isn't a particularly cold look but it would be interesting none the less with quite a bit of high side potential if temps cooperate.

Yeah huge difference. Of course I didn't see yesterday's 12z run because it never completely loaded on crappy WB. So comparing 0z to last 0z its like wow. As is its not a really cold look, but with a little adjustment south in the PV, Pac improves a bit, and we get an even more favorable pattern. And as is, PV will wobble and rotate lobes towards eastern Canada, which should get trapped under the block, because for once, it might actually be a LEGIT BLOCK. My h5 pattern goal is still CFS week 4 lol. Ensembles now seem to moving in that direction. If we can get close to that look, we could be rockin' for a week or 2.