NJwx85 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Guidance is in excellent agreement on a high impact rainfall event this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 meh....need like 4-5'' for impact here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 On 2/9/2018 at 9:46 PM, Dan76 said: meh....need like 4-5'' for impact here Expand 1/2" of rain onto the ice that's on the frozen ground will create a near disaster and we're supposed to get 2". The other day we (I) got 2" of very wet snow then 1" of cold rain on top of frozen ground and it got super soggy then it froze up solid and today it has been snowing (lightly) most of the day. It's going to be a mess if we get 2" of rain unless it comes so hard and fast it runs off before too much of the icepack melts. Unfortunately everyone below my house is going to be very wet and the creeks will flood big time because the beds are frozen solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 If the Euro and Hi Res NAM are onto something, the heaviest may miss south. We spike into the 50's and even 60 Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 00z NAM held serve for the most part. Maybe a slight shift to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Flood Watch in effect here from this evening thru Sunday evening for 2-3" of rain expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 At this rate, I just need it to thaw my driveway. As gravity mentioned above, the infancy of a new glacier is evident all over my property due to the slop storm and hard freeze this past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 3-4 inches of rain Philly into NJ wow....rest of us get 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 What's the real timing on this rain getting in here this morning? It looks like it's getting hung up running into some dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 On 2/10/2018 at 1:01 PM, gravitylover said: What's the real timing on this rain getting in here this morning? It looks like it's getting hung up running into some dry air. Expand I would say anywhere from late morning to mid afternoon depending on location. Heaviest rains probably occur from around midnight thru most of tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Upton has noon here but that seems fast, its still partly sunny at 8:20 and radar shows very little within 300 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 It must be warming up out there pretty quickly now, the fog is setting in and the street is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 Enhanced risk for flooding in NNJ thanks to frozen ground and run off from snow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 You know that there will be some heavy overrunning rains when you see this sharp of a temperature gradient. There will be boundary separating winter from spring. The moisture plume will have near record PWATS for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 On 2/10/2018 at 2:57 PM, bluewave said: You know that there will be some heavy overrunning rains when you see this sharp of a temperature gradient. There will be boundary separating winter from spring. The moisture plume will have near record PWATS for Feb. Expand Monmouth county jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 On 2/10/2018 at 4:56 PM, Paragon said: Monmouth county jackpot? Expand Funny you should say that, the 12z Euro has a jackpot area of 3"+ which runs from near BWI up 95 towards Monmouth and the Southern parts of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 On 2/10/2018 at 6:32 PM, NJwx85 said: Funny you should say that, the 12z Euro has a jackpot area of 3"+ which runs from near BWI up 95 towards Monmouth and the Southern parts of NYC. Expand Oh that's interesting, I was following the line of the greatest thermal gradient, looks like from Monmouth County to Southern SI over to Coney Island and The Rockaways and perhaps over to my area. :-) Too bad we won't see a lot of wind with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 On 2/10/2018 at 6:40 PM, Paragon said: Oh that's interesting, I was following the line of the greatest thermal gradient, looks like from Monmouth County to Southern SI over to Coney Island and The Rockaways and perhaps over to my area. :-) Too bad we won't see a lot of wind with this. Expand It gets quite windy on the Euro but most of it stays just offshore and it's not until Sunday night as the storm is passing. PWAT's approach 2" over Southern areas of this sub-forum. Rainfall looks to be the main concern however convection/thunder is possible. It's possible that Monday could end up being rainy too with the front stalled near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 On 2/10/2018 at 6:45 PM, NJwx85 said: It gets quite windy on the Euro but most of it stays just offshore and it's not until Sunday night as the storm is passing. PWAT's approach 2" over Southern areas of this sub-forum. Rainfall looks to be the main concern however convection/thunder is possible. It's possible that Monday could end up being rainy too with the front stalled near the coast. Expand I was looking at that, this could be one of our biggest long duration precip producers in quite some while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 On 2/10/2018 at 6:48 PM, Paragon said: I was looking at that, this could be one of our biggest long duration precip producers in quite some while. Expand Yeah, interestingly the RGEM is considerable drier. Still 1-2" but not the deluge other models have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 On 2/10/2018 at 6:54 PM, Stormlover74 said: Yeah, interestingly the RGEM is considerable drier. Still 1-2" but not the deluge other models have Expand The RGEM has done very poorly this year. In any event, the convection it shows at the end of the run could end up closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 3k NAM shifted NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 FW extended into NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Picked up 0.56" of rain yesterday, 0.27" so far today. Storm total up to 0.83" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Can confirm, it's raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Spring or summer style heavy downpour just came through here in SW Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Never ending light to moderate rain here in the Bronx. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 It’s even raining here at 3900’ in Vermont. Garbage weather everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Storm total rainfall up to 1.27" here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 heaviest getting ready to move through. maybe some thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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