dendrite Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 16 hours ago, frostman said: WRF from PSU shows the cold coming back on Sunday .. GFS is precarious too if you tack off a couple of degrees from 2m. Just keep that QPF down there...I don’t need anymore liquid on top of frozen ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Last night's little patch of snow grew as it moved east - 0.7" in Temple (2 towns to my W), 0.9" here, up to 4" midcoast and Downeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 Lotta rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 We flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Lotta rain. You must be getting close to some type of QPF record since the end of summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Up to 31.6F right now. Looks like I'll miss the qpf by about 25 miles. Maybe a couple tenths. Low to mid 30's over the weekend and very little precip will not affect the pack up here. Winter appeal in full gear. Enjoy the warmth and rain down there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: You must be getting close to some type of QPF record since the end of summer. I’ll have to take a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 picked up 1.8" overnight. Couple sprinkles now. 35.3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: You must be getting close to some type of QPF record since the end of summer. 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I’ll have to take a look Since Sept 1st, 22.17" of precip. Quite a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 Euro upped precip totals a bit from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Steve may have to cut his birthday short to fill a few sandbags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Steve may have to cut his birthday short to fill a few sandbags ? No rain here today awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? No rain here today awt Um, for tomorrow and Monday. 2"+ coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Um, for tomorrow and Monday. 2"+ coming ? Tomorrows not my birthday and meh on the rain, it's winter no one is flooding other than typical poor road drainage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Tomorrows not my birthday and meh on the rain, it's winter no one is flooding other than typical poor road drainage ummm....? Flood Watch National Weather Service Taunton MA 215 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 MAZ017>022-RIZ001>007-110315- /O.NEW.KBOX.FA.A.0003.180211T0300Z-180212T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA- Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA- Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI- Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI- Including the cities of Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, Westerly, and Newport 215 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, including the following areas, in southeastern Massachusetts, Barnstable, Bristol, and Plymouth. In Rhode Island, Bristol, Kent, Newport, Providence, and Washington. * From 10 PM EST this evening through Sunday evening * Periods of rain will be heavy at times tonight into Sunday evening. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are anticipated but localized 2.50 to 3 inch amounts are possible. The greatest risk for these higher amounts will be near the south coast. This will bring the potential for pockets of urban and poor drainage street flooding. * In addition...if the higher rainfall amounts materialize minor flooding would be possible at the Pawtuxet River at Cranston, the Pawcatuck River at Westerly, as well as the Wood River at Hope Valley. Some small streams and creeks may also experience minor flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Frank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Lol minor flooding, means some parking lots along the river. You pinned your rain event in Feb, can't remember anyone pinning a marginal flood event but hey stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol minor flooding, means some parking lots along the river. You pinned your rain event in Feb, can't remember anyone pinning a marginal flood event but hey stay safe Pinning a thread has zero to do with the severity/impact. It's what ever is the most current event. Someone piss on your b-day cheerios? What else is there to discuss other than this rain event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Pinning a thread has zero to do with the severity/impact. It's what ever is the most current event. Someone piss on your b-day cheerios? What else is there to discuss other than this rain event? Stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... * Periods of heavy rain tonight/Sunday near and south of MA Pike * Flood Watch into Sunday evening for RI and SE MA Tonight and Sunday... Periods of rain are on tap for the region tonight through Sunday. The heaviest rain is anticipated south of the MA Turnpike and a Flood Watch has been posted across RI and SE MA. We will break it down a bit more below. 1) Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Concerns: The main idea is that several waves of low pressure will be moving along a cold front as it sags south into southern New England into Sunday. Guidance is showing rounds of strong forcing/frontogenesis across the region. This will be coupled with Pwats 3-4+ standard deviations above normal setting the stage for heavy rainfall. The biggest uncertainty will be where the boundary sets up and interacts with the low level jet. A solid 1 to 2 inches of rain appears to be a good bet for most locations, but our far northern zones may receive a bit less. There is the potential for localized 2.50 to 3 inch amounts near the south coast where forcing/Pwats will be highest. Again, it all depends on where the boundary sets up which will come down to the mesoscale. There is even a low risk for an embedded thunderstorm or two given some marginal elevated instability near the south coast. We opted to issue a Flood Watch for RI and SE based on a few factors. The MMEFS guidance was indicating at least the possibility for some minor flooding at the Pawtuxet River at Cranston, the Pawcatuck River at Westerly, as well as the Wood River at Hope Valley. Some small streams and creeks may also experience minor flooding if higher rainfall amounts are realized. In addition, at least a partially frozen ground may result in an increased risk for some urban and poor drainage street flooding. 2) Temperatures: We derived the temperature forecast from the high resolution model data, which often performs well in these events. It appears that the surface cold front will drop to near the south coast by daybreak Sunday. This will result shallow cool air working south and temperatures falling into the middle 30s to lower 40s away from the south coast and holding relatively steady for most of Sunday. Fortunately, it looks like temperatures will probably remain just above freezing to prevent any icing even in the high terrain. Nonetheless, it will be a raw and rainy Sunday for much of the region. 3) Fog: Areas of fog will impact the region tonight and Sunday. It may become dense at times in any lulls in the rainfall to the north of the boundary. There may also be some dense fog on the Cape/Islands south of the boundary given high dewpoint air moving over the relatively cold ocean. Later shifts may need to consider a dense fog advisory, but periods of heavy rain will likely cause improvement in visibility at times so confidence was not high enough to hoist at this time. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday night... Rain may persist for at least part of Sunday evening especially southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor. The activity should come to an end in most areas after midnight, except it may linger a bit longer across the far southeast New England coast. Milder air will likely briefly mix down at least along the coast plain during the evening, sending temperatures well up into the 40s to near 50 for a time before chillier air works back into the region. There is a low risk for a period of southwest wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph across the southeast New England coast if temperatures get milder than expected given strong LLJ, but soundings indicate a pretty good inversion so played it conservative for now. Lastly, temps should be near or below freezing across the interior by daybreak Monday. This may result in some patchy black ice if we do not dry out in time, something to keep in mind for the Monday morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I would start filling the bags now Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I would start filling the bags now Steve. Stay safe, hopefully being stuck inside with the kids doesn't bother you as much as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Stay safe, hopefully being stuck inside with the kids doesn't bother you as much as you said. We enjoy Spring today. Deep winter rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Shut em down! At least my driveway is melting. My road is a glassy ice sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Stay safe Enjoy the rain, it's the only type of precipitation you'll be experiencing in Moosup for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Enjoy the rain, it's the only type of precipitation you'll be experiencing in Moosup for the next 10 days. Lets do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Enjoy the rain, it's the only type of precipitation you'll be experiencing in Moosup for the next 10 days. Thankfully I will force myself to take some time off and be on snow while you concentrate on watching your grass green up. Enjoy the mud it's the only mud you got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 can we lock this in? verbatim its a solid icing event imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets do this! Poor kids Dad screaming at them all weekend because he couldn't look out the window at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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