What are your top favorite fake snowstorms of all time

[Ji]

Not sure what the order is but 

 

March 2001...Modeled to get 25-30 inches of snow...got flurries and showers

Dec 2017--Modeled to get 20-30 inches of snow....

Dec 30,2000 At one point, this was modeled as a HECS with a classic Miller A, because a classic Miller B

A few years ago, the euro had a couple of runs where it gave us 20-25 inches of snow....the storm become a cutter and we got 1 hour of snow before changing to rain

Valentine Day storm of 2007...models had a bunch of snowy solutions 1-2 feet. Wes even though he denies it, said the storm reminded him of February 1983

there was alot more but these stand out for now....

 

 

[Cobalt]

I personally like March 19-20 2016.

Euro had a 6-10" insane paste bomb 72 hours out (1"+/hr rates during the day above 35 degrees with almost 1" of total QPF) , and instead the GFS won (for once), and we got flurries instead.

Feb 8-9 2016 was also an interesting one. Had the potential to be a big Miller B storm, and runs the day before were encouraging. Pretty sure BWI recorded a trace of snow instead of the progged 4-8" plus that the models had that made the NWS put them under a WSW.

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Not sure what the order is but 

 

March 2001...Modeled to get 25-30 inches of snow...got flurries and showers

Dec 2017--Modeled to get 20-30 inches of snow....

Dec 30,2000 At one point, this was modeled as a HECS with a classic Miller A, because a classic Miller B

A few years ago, the euro had a couple of runs where it gave us 20-25 inches of snow....the storm become a cutter and we got 1 hour of snow before changing to rain

Valentine Day storm of 2007...models had a bunch of snowy solutions 1-2 feet. Wes even though he denies it, said the storm reminded him of February 1983

there was alot more but these stand out for now....

 

 

I remember the March 2001 vividly...was in the process of buying a car that week.  I remember runs that had 10-15" around here...specifically the AVN and ETA but I don't remember any 20"plus runs for our area.  There were some crazy stupid totals being shown just north of us for a day.  But maybe there were some bigger runs of models I don't remember.  

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember the March 2001 vividly...was in the process of buying a car that week.  I remember runs that had 10-15" around here...specifically the AVN and ETA but I don't remember any 20"plus runs for our area.  There were some crazy stupid totals being shown just north of us for a day.  But maybe there were some bigger runs of models I don't remember.  

dude--we had some model runs of 20-30 inches. The Forecast for DC area the night before the storm was 20-25 inches. It was suppose to be a true HECS with loopty doop etc

[yoda]

The Storm that Must Not be Named was terrible for me... I went with the forecast of a foot or so of snow and told my classmates that we'd probably get a few days off... woke up the next morning to basically green grass... and that day wasn't exactly the best for me in school lol

[psuhoffman]

This is a hard one without any criteria...does it have to be within 3 days, 5 days...7 days... obviously that matters.  Does it have to be a storm that had universal model support and became an epic bust...or just one that teased a little with a few crazy runs...?  

But there was a storm in early February 2005 where the GFS teased us for a couple runs with some slow moving double barrelled miller A gulf low that was a 20" wet snow paste bomb.  It ended up disappearing completely to not even a wave after a few runs of teasing.  

I remember a tease on the GFS and NAM in 2009 that for a couple runs showed some epic storm but then the surface part evaporated and it ended up just being a good upper low pass and some snow showers but around Philly got 8" from convective bands with the upper low.  

 

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

dude--we had some model runs of 20-30 inches. The Forecast for DC area the night before the storm was 20-25 inches. It was suppose to be a true HECS with loopty doop etc

I'm not saying we didnt, just that I don't remember them.  I remember from 3-4 days out it was south.  The AVN/MRF had the storm down in the carolinas and southern VA but we all expected it to trend north.  Then it did but we were just a one day pit stop until it continued trending north.  During that one day when we expected a HUGE snow I remember the ETA showed about 1.1 qpf as snow with a bit of rain at the very start.  The AVN had a better run with about 1.5 qpf as snow for IAD.  I was living in Herndon VA at the time.  I didn't remember anything better but perhaps the euro was and I didn't have access to it back then.  The very next run was when it all started to go wrong when the ETA came in drier with only about 1" qpf and half rain.  The AVN/MRF cut back to about 1.2 with about .7 being snow but then the next run cut even more...but by then the storm was practically on us and the bust was in progress.  I also remember reading the forecast discussion from the NWS and NCEP that day and they were calling for 1 foot plus for northern VA and DC but 1-2 feet across PA and NJ.  I do remmember the qpf totals just north of us that day across northern MD and PA into NJ were epic like 3" but the stall was just slightly late for our area...we were clearly in the very very heavy snows...with around 1.3-1.5 qpf across all guidance but we werent in the 2" plus qpf areas that day.   Maybe there was a better run just before the one I am thinking of or from a model I didn't look at.  

[87storms]

march 2001 was hilariously bad.  i was out playing basketball in shorts and a tshirt the day before (maybe that saturday).  not the best pre conditions for a legendary blizzard.

we've had some legitimate busts back in the 80s and 90s too, but who's counting...they happen almost every winter here lol.

[MN Transplant]

I can't recall the year, but it was January in the late 00s.  Models were pumping out a monster from 4-5 days out.  I was headed out of town and I was so pissed that I was going to miss my first true Nor'Easter.  Obviously it trended very poorly and I didn't miss anything.  So, that's my favorite.

[Ji]

This is a hard one without any criteria...does it have to be within 3 days, 5 days...7 days... obviously that matters.  Does it have to be a storm that had universal model support and became an epic bust...or just one that teased a little with a few crazy runs...?  
But there was a storm in early February 2005 where the GFS teased us for a couple runs with some slow moving double barrelled miller A gulf low that was a 20" wet snow paste bomb.  It ended up disappearing completely to not even a wave after a few runs of teasing.  
I remember a tease on the GFS and NAM in 2009 that for a couple runs showed some epic storm but then the surface part evaporated and it ended up just being a good upper low pass and some snow showers but around Philly got 8" from convective bands with the upper low.  
 

Not sure. I guess a monster storm that you bought into even if was long distance. Like I thought the dec 17 was really likely. I mean a good stj dosent really disappear...does it Lol? Jan 2005 was also once a Miller a hecs at one point

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

There have been some good ones this year iirc.

[George BM]

I wasn't looking at weather models yet but I remember the Weather Channel hyping up a storm that would hit Groundhog Day 2009. Accuweather showed a bigly swath of 1-2 feet of snow to our west ( along and west of the mountains with heavy windswept rain from the region all the way up eastern seaboard. Some meteorologists on the Weather Channel were calling it "The Mega Storm" lol. It ended up missing us to our east and not being as strong as expected. What did the models show for that storm? BTW we got some brief snow that Sunday night, February 1, 2009 behind a cold front after it had been in the 50s that afternoon. No more than a coating though. Were there any big  runs with that storm?

[paulythegun]

Obviously Snowquester (2014) but don't forget the Great Sandy Blizzard (2012). Euro had it a few runs. 

A good deal of the most disappointing "fake" snowstorms were simply ruined by extended periods of sleet....but that really depends on where you live. Many of those were probably amazing for much of this forum. For me, I don't have to go too far....March 17, 2017. Awful. 

This is my own personal collection of mostly fake (or overblown) snowmaps: https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipOCy8Lxy3_TqpFc3m8k3UaebYXkQLiVeDoqjrER5F4cPf_cfNdReyPyDeqEkIxilg?key=YTJhRDNpT0xPWjlBNFRBWWN0alMzY0dtTlJrVUdR

 

 

[Cobalt]

Nice snowmap page @paulythegun

[HighStakes]

Going back a bit further, I'm pretty sure there was a huge bust in February 1989. Winter storm warning for 6-12 with higher amounts possible turned into mostly cloudy skies. I think eastern shore got it though.

[HighStakes]

The part that still pisses me off the most about march 2001 was watching Paul Kocin on that friday night and his graphic said up to 3ft. Possible right in our area.

[gymengineer]

Big bust in mid-March 1991--It was a 6-10" type forecast. Watch this video of Glenn Brenner roasting Doug Hill over the forecast:

 

April 9, 1996 had an extreme-for-time-of-year forecast-- NWS went with WSWarning and 4-8". It lightly snowed but didn't stick in the lower elevations. I wasn't that disappointed given how epic the rest of the winter was, but it did sting a little to end the snow season on a bust.  Plus those videos of the 8" from the Jersey shore were kind of ugh. 

[gymengineer]

Speaking of fake snowstorms and maps, I can't possibly be the only person on this board to make up fantasy snowstorms, can I?

[Cobalt]

Every single person on this board has probably made a snowstorm map like that on paper. Heck, I learned how to draw the entire Eastern seaboard from memory just by doing stuff like this. 

[Ji]

I remember a few years ago there was suppose to be a monster Ohio valley storm. 1978 redux. All the models had it...and then it started shifting east. I thought we were going to be the recipients. End result....a cold front passage for everyone:(

[Bob Chill]

I don't have the best memory for fantasy storms that fail. I'll go with this one for now. 

 

[Cobalt]

On 2/9/2018 at 6:06 PM, Bob Chill said:

I don't have the best memory for fantasy storms that fail. I'll go with this one for now. 

 

Nailed it!

[NoVaWx]

Dec 26 2010

[Ji]

On 2/9/2018 at 1:44 PM, psuhoffman said:

I remember the March 2001 vividly...was in the process of buying a car that week.  I remember runs that had 10-15" around here...specifically the AVN and ETA but I don't remember any 20"plus runs for our area.  There were some crazy stupid totals being shown just north of us for a day.  But maybe there were some bigger runs of models I don't remember.  

here is ORH-Wxman take on this

 

Here is my detailed recount of the March 4-6, 2001debacle.

There's a lot of "stories" behind it. First off, almost all guidance was going for a monster Mid-Atlantic HECS about 96-108 hours out. Back then the time range beyond 96h meant very little...but models actually did have it further out than that. Only a few model went further. The UKMET, ECMWF and the MRF (the extension of the AVN which is now the GFS all in one package) all called for it. By the time we got to 84 hours out, all models showed it still...basically 2-4 feet for DC-NYC with Boston getting fringed....except the old ETA-x....the old ETA went to 60 hours, but the "ETA-x" was the ETA to 84h which eventually became the NAM (run under the ETA) to 84 hours but is now run under the WRF and not the ETA anymore...ETA has been retired from operational use, only used in the SREF now. That run of the ETA-x had the storm much further north and crushing New England while limiting the snow in the Mid-Atlantic. I believe this was Friday at 12z. Nobody took it seriously as it was the ETA extended beyond its already 60h limit.

The next run at 00z Friday night, the ETA-x showed it again, but the other models held serve....the ECMWF didn't run at 00z back then...only at 12z, so its solution was non-existent. It was the best model back then too like recent years. We were now at 72h out or closer. The 12z runs came out on Saturday morning and they shifted north, limiting the snow for DC (probably from 2-3 feet to about 1-2 feet), but from Wilmington DE northward it was still monstrous except the UKMET shifted slightly north of that, to Philly and northward.

A little side note. The AVN had performed absolutely brilliantly in the other big east coast storm on December 30, 2000 and also on the December 3, 2000 North Carolina/Virginia bust. The ETA hadbeen way too bullish and far west in both events while the AVN schooled it. So a lot of attention and credence was being given the AVN. That was a big factor in the forecast IMHO.

After those Saturday morning runs at 12z (while the ETA showed a huge hit north again at 48-60h now in the operational run)...the forecast was still for a monster M.A. hit. The 12z ECMWF wouldn't come out until around 8pm that evening. It used to come around at that time back then. As 8pm rolled around, the ECMWF all of the sudden jumped way north and agreed with the ETA solution. But most forecasters disregarded it as it had been pretty steadfast before (maybe a burp run?) and the AVN was holding really steady and it had done so well on East Coast storms that winter. By Saturday night, the GGEM started to go north, the AVN held serve once again (having been the model of choice all winter), the ETA went north again taking Philly and nearly NYC out of the huge snow and hammering New England/Boston with a storm like Feb 1978. UKMET I don't recall what happened, but I know the forecast stuck close to the AVN.

Again there was no 00z ECMWF run back then. Only 12z.

By 12z Sunday morning just 24h before the event, the AVN once again gave a monster hit to the mid-atlantic except it shifted a bit north...it was mostly Philly northward. The ETA gave New England a huge HECS again, the GGEM finally went well north...and so did the UKMET. The ECMWF would have to wait until 8pm as usual. Most forecaster were trusting the AVN because it had served them well that winter after the obscene ETA busts and the AVN had nailed two major east coast storms.

When 8pm came in, the writing was on the wall if there was any doubt left. It was way north and took Philly and possibly even NYC out fo the big snows, though NYC was still on the line.

The forecasts started being revived when the 00z AVN came in late that Sunday night and it finally jumped north, but still not far enough....it still gave big snows to Philly (but not historic totals) and historic totals to NYC. I think this is when most operational forecasters knew something was terribly wrong. You have to remember it was so hard to trust any model that winter and the AVN was the best until that point.

That was the first storm that I recall Dave Tolleris (whether you like him or not) came up with the old "EE rule"...when the ETA and ECMWF (both start with "E") agree, you don't go against them. I was lurking on ne.weather back then. When the EC came north to agree with the ETA back on Saturday, he said the M.A. was cooked and got a lot of crap for it on the boards as you can imagine.

That's just my personal recollection of all of that storm. I don't claim for all of it to be 100% accurate, but I usually remember things very vividly, so I think at least most of it is right. There was a lot of controversy and talk amongst the weather people both on ne.weather and the NWS back then. It ended up being a huge interior New England and NY State HECS. Even the models at the last second kind of busted at Boston...only getting 10" while they were forecasted for double that...but the suburbs got all the snow.

Very incredible storm both from a forecasting standpoint and also as a student observer back then when I first learning a lot of the intricacies of forecasting and mode

[Maestrobjwa]

On 2/9/2018 at 4:03 PM, paulythegun said:

Obviously Snowquester (2014) but don't forget the Great Sandy Blizzard (2012). Euro had it a few runs. 

A good deal of the most disappointing "fake" snowstorms were simply ruined by extended periods of sleet....but that really depends on where you live. Many of those were probably amazing for much of this forum. For me, I don't have to go too far....March 17, 2017. Awful. 

This is my own personal collection of mostly fake (or overblown) snowmaps: https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipOCy8Lxy3_TqpFc3m8k3UaebYXkQLiVeDoqjrER5F4cPf_cfNdReyPyDeqEkIxilg?key=YTJhRDNpT0xPWjlBNFRBWWN0alMzY0dtTlJrVUdR

 

 

March 2017 was indeed awful...just two days prior we were talking at least 10 inches, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Now,  I'm thinking about, but....I remember there being a storm predicted on a Saturday...and I remember going to bed in anticipation the night before...and waking up to blue skies and sunshine, lol (but I cannot remember when this was!) I think it was in the late 90s or possibly 2000. But it was the first snow bust I can remember from childhood...ack! (Seems like the storm either went to our south or to the north)

[Ji]

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now,  I'm thinking about, but....I remember there being a storm predicted on a Saturday...and I remember going to bed in anticipation the night before...and waking up to blue skies and sunshine, lol (but I cannot remember when this was!) I think it was in the late 90s or possibly 2000. But it was the first snow bust I can remember from childhood...ack! (Seems like the storm either went to our south or to the north)

probably Dec 30,2000

[HighStakes]

On 2/9/2018 at 5:32 PM, gymengineer said:

Big bust in mid-March 1991--It was a 6-10" type forecast. Watch this video of Glenn Brenner roasting Doug Hill over the forecast:

 

April 9, 1996 had an extreme-for-time-of-year forecast-- NWS went with WSWarning and 4-8". It lightly snowed but didn't stick in the lower elevations. I wasn't that disappointed given how epic the rest of the winter was, but it did sting a little to end the snow season on a bust.  Plus those videos of the 8" from the Jersey shore were kind of ugh. 

Yes, the march 1991 bust. Often forgotten but its coming back to me now.  Awful forecast by everyone.

[WVclimo]

Reading Ji’s Post with Will’s account brought it all back.  Every one of those model runs and the awful trends.  I was on ne.weather in those days too, and what should have been a storm to save a lousy season turned into icing on the cake.

Add to that the infamous NCEP discussion calling for historic snows, and it cements March 2001 as the all-time bust in our area.

 

[ers-wxman1]

My all time bust list

1) March 2001: I was still living on Long Island where I grew up. Was finishing up my Met degree while interning at NWS NYC. It was a full on media hype storm initiated by TWC and other private companies calling for 18-24”+, hurricane force winds, and damaging tidal flooding. The National Guard was brought into Long Island. The weenie in me didn’t sleep for three days and the Met in me knew it was a bust. I stayed with a friend in Bayville right on the water, North Shore which is the epicenter for coastal flooding on the island. Ended up with 5” of slop, gusty winds high enough to fly a kite, and surf splashover just enough to fill a kiddy pool in July. Epic waste. The east end of Long Island ended up with the jackpot with 18”+ and New England received 2-3’.

2) Mid March 2017: Expecting 12-18”+ and ended up with 2” then ice to rain. Total waste.

3) March 5-6 2013: the coastal that couldn’t. Heaviest snow at Dulles I’ve ever seen at 3:1 ratio and 3” vs 8-14”. DC all rain. 

4) Jan 2007: West Texas. Storm of the Century simulated for days. I was working at NWS LUB as a journey forecaster and on a stretch of 7 graveyard shifts pumping out products like nobody’s business while missing sleep to come back in for media meetings. Half the city shutdown in anticipation of a foot or more of snow which for out there is a disaster. 1-2c warm nose worked in at 900-800 off the Pacific  and gave us 12+ hours of sleet and freezing rain then only 2-3” of Wet snow on the backside. Total bust and the public and media ripped us a new one. They probably still do. 

5) Nearly every event in Albuquerque, NM! The toughest place to receive snow anywhere. Makes DCA look like Carroll County, MD. Downslope in every direction except NNE and SE. heavy snow all around you with 30 dbz echoes overhead and zilch on the ground. 2008-2012 as a Senior Met at ABQ. 

 

Thanks for starting this thread...fun