Hudson Valley Earthquake

[NycStormChaser]

[Drz1111]

Right on the active fault that bounds the southern end of the Hudson Highlands uplift.  The north end of the seismic zone that extends southwest toward Indian Point / the Tappan Zee and then into Jersey.

[gravitylover]

Oh cool, I live 18 miles due east of Indian Point 

[the_other_guy]

Then your electricity rates will skyrocket in 2020. Enjoy! haha

[gravitylover]

Actually here in Putnam County we don't get our power from there and I opted for wind power a few years ago so my rates have been pretty stable since then.

[Drz1111]

On ‎2‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 9:33 AM, gravitylover said:

Oh cool, I live 18 miles due east of Indian Point 

there's a great paper from 2008 by Sykes et al about seismic risk in NYC.  Lynn Sykes is a god of seismology and he was instrumental in getting NY state to realize the magnitude of the seismic risk at Indian Point / the Tappan Zee.  

[gravitylover]

4 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

there's a great paper from 2008 by Sykes et al about seismic risk in NYC.  Lynn Sykes is a god of seismology and he was instrumental in getting NY state to realize the magnitude of the seismic risk at Indian Point / the Tappan Zee.  

I'm a little bit of a geology freak so know quite a bit about the local geology. I read some of that paper a while back but forgot who the author was so never went back to it. Thanks for the link.

[DaveTinNY]

Ramapo fault.  Has the capability upwards of a M6.0.  Runs pretty close to my home, just west.

 

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[CIK62]

I once found an earthquake probability/magnitude calculator on the net.    Using a radius of within 100km of NYC and magnitude 7+, I asked how many years must pass for at least a 50% chance of such an event around here.     It stopped at 3,000 years w/o getting to a probability of 50%.   I neglected to try other combinations.  

That 1884 quake does have a recurrence of every 200 years or less,  I read somewhere.   It caused a mini tidal wave at the Rockaways and CI.

The key fact to remember after you feel a quake and you are near the ocean etc., is to run if you see the water retreat suddenly.   Do not go out to admire the pretty shells---the water will soon roar back at you.

[Juliancolton]

26 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

I once found an earthquake probability/magnitude calculator on the net.    Using a radius of within 100km of NYC and magnitude 7+, I asked how many years must pass for at least a 50% chance of such an event around here.     It stopped at 3,000 years w/o getting to a probability of 50%.   I neglected to try other combinations.  

That 1884 quake does have a recurrence of every 200 years or less,  I read somewhere.   It caused a mini tidal wave at the Rockaways and CI.

The key fact to remember after you feel a quake and you are near the ocean etc., is to run if you see the water retreat suddenly.   Do not go out to admire the pretty shells---the water will soon roar back at you.

I'm sure I can outrun a tsunami. The people on TV do it with tornadoes all the time.

[Drz1111]

On 2/9/2018 at 7:22 AM, DaveTinNY said:

Ramapo fault.  Has the capability upwards of a M6.0.  Runs pretty close to my home, just west.

 

 

No.  Ramapo fault likely not active.  Boreholes show no post-Mesozoic movement.  It’s a “seismic zone” and it’s likely other smaller faults within the uplifted highlands block.

pretty much any fault around here has the capability for an M6 with a long enough recurrence time.   Strain buildup is super duper duper slow around here.  It’s also possible that the appearance of seismic activity near NYC is just super long tail aftershocks of a large event before historical time.  Increasingly people think that’s what explains hot spots of moderate seismic activity in the east, other than Charelvoix which seems to be driven differently.

[Drz1111]

18 hours ago, CIK62 said:

I once found an earthquake probability/magnitude calculator on the net.    Using a radius of within 100km of NYC and magnitude 7+, I asked how many years must pass for at least a 50% chance of such an event around here.     It stopped at 3,000 years w/o getting to a probability of 50%.   I neglected to try other combinations.  

That 1884 quake does have a recurrence of every 200 years or less,  I read somewhere.   It caused a mini tidal wave at the Rockaways and CI.

The key fact to remember after you feel a quake and you are near the ocean etc., is to run if you see the water retreat suddenly.   Do not go out to admire the pretty shells---the water will soon roar back at you.

Everything about this post is wrong, except for the last paragraph, and that’s at best 50% right.

[Paragon]

21 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

I'm sure I can outrun a tsunami. The people on TV do it with tornadoes all the time.

You must be related to The Flash ;-)

 

One time he "unwound" a tornado by running in the opposite direction around it ;-)

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

No.  Ramapo fault likely not active.  Boreholes show no post-Mesozoic movement.  It’s a “seismic zone” and it’s likely other smaller faults within the uplifted highlands block.

pretty much any fault around here has the capability for an M6 with a long enough recurrence time.   Strain buildup is super duper duper slow around here.  It’s also possible that the appearance of seismic activity near NYC is just super long tail aftershocks of a large event before historical time.  Increasingly people think that’s what explains hot spots of moderate seismic activity in the east, other than Charelvoix which seems to be driven differently.

I'm grateful that we have the fracking ban here, also heard that the Delaware Valley commission did the same for NW NJ/ NE PA.

[Drz1111]

On 2/10/2018 at 12:23 PM, Paragon said:

I'm grateful that we have the fracking ban here, also heard that the Delaware Valley commission did the same for NW NJ/ NE PA.

That’s not how this works.   You don’t frack in the seismically active metamorphic rock.  

Also, even if it were possible to frack in the Newark Basin (it’s not), the cost of induced seismicity is much, much less than the economic benefit fracking creates.  Banning fracking is an ill-considered policy that has no economic basis, other than in the most macro sense of increasing the cost of fossil fuels to reduce carbon emissions. 

[Paragon]

19 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

That’s not how this works.   You don’t frack in the seismically active metamorphic rock.  

Also, even if it were possible to frack in the Newark Basin (it’s not), the cost of induced seismicity is much, much less than the economic benefit fracking creates.  Banning fracking is an ill-considered policy that has no economic basis, other than in the most macro sense of increasing the cost of fossil fuels to reduce carbon emissions. 

Fracking increases various levels of pollution and wherever it happens there are huge complaints from residential areas.  In Oklahoma the number of earthquakes has risen 500 fold.  We shouldn't be moving backwards- we should be moving forward.  That's why hydro and wind energy as well as solar are expanding so quickly, while the fossil fuel industry is dead in the water, with less than 20% of millenials saying they'd even consider working for them.  That industry is as dirty as the tobacco industry ever was.  They dont even have the guts to release info on the chemicals they use for fear of getting class action sued (it's happening already)- NY has a big class action lawsuit going now against Exxon and their cartel cohorts.

 

[Drz1111]

13 hours ago, Paragon said:

Fracking increases various levels of pollution and wherever it happens there are huge complaints from residential areas.  In Oklahoma the number of earthquakes has risen 500 fold.  We shouldn't be moving backwards- we should be moving forward.  That's why hydro and wind energy as well as solar are expanding so quickly, while the fossil fuel industry is dead in the water, with less than 20% of millenials saying they'd even consider working for them.  That industry is as dirty as the tobacco industry ever was.  They dont even have the guts to release info on the chemicals they use for fear of getting class action sued (it's happening already)- NY has a big class action lawsuit going now against Exxon and their cartel cohorts.

 

Okay man.  

[NycStormChaser]

13 hours ago, Paragon said:

Fracking increases various levels of pollution and wherever it happens there are huge complaints from residential areas.  In Oklahoma the number of earthquakes has risen 500 fold.  We shouldn't be moving backwards- we should be moving forward.  That's why hydro and wind energy as well as solar are expanding so quickly, while the fossil fuel industry is dead in the water, with less than 20% of millenials saying they'd even consider working for them.  That industry is as dirty as the tobacco industry ever was.  They dont even have the guts to release info on the chemicals they use for fear of getting class action sued (it's happening already)- NY has a big class action lawsuit going now against Exxon and their cartel cohorts.

 

Well said. It's caused nothing but problems in the places they have fracked in. Thankfully it's getting banned in more and more places. 

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, seanick said:

Well said. It's caused nothing but problems in the places they have fracked in. Thankfully it's getting banned in more and more places. 

I went full solar and haven't looked back   At this point, I'd far prefer nuclear over any fossil fuel.  No methane leaks with nuclear either (and methane is far more of a greenhouse gas than CO2- 86x more as a matter of fact.)  Obviously fusion over fission, but we have to have controllable fusion first.

The projections I've looked at mention that we have the capability of going fully renewable by 2050.

[gravitylover]

9 hours ago, Paragon said:

I went full solar and haven't looked back   At this point, I'd far prefer nuclear over any fossil fuel.  No methane leaks with nuclear either (and methane is far more of a greenhouse gas than CO2- 86x more as a matter of fact.)  Obviously fusion over fission, but we have to have controllable fusion first.

The projections I've looked at mention that we have the capability of going fully renewable by 2050.

IF the nimby crowd would get out of the way and allow windmill farms and tidal or wave generators along the coasts there is certainly a possibility. It would also be nice if a couple of large desalination plants could be built so places like LI could stop sucking groundwater and NYC could ease up on the dilapidated upstate systems for their fresh water needs and hey, those plants which use huge amounts of power could be self sustaining if the power was generated right there. What a novel idea...

[DaveTinNY]

I've been on solar since 2013.  Best move yet on my house.