Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The Pope's 'And There You Have It" SWFE Feb 7 2018


moneypitmike

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Already? What’s your Td?

Temps and dews already appear to have spiked throughout eastern SNE.

I'm at 23/15...up from 19/3 at the onset, with sugar, was decent snowgrowth at the start, but heavy sugar, my 1/2SM reference has at best been obscured all morning if not gone, so it's coming down..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 994
  • Created
  • Last Reply
36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

obviously no one in here is really qualified to judge these modeling performances ... me being no different. Ooccasionally memes come into fad to impugn one over the other.  Next event, we tend as humans to adhere to whatever version aligns with our personal biases.. .  

Truth be told, some models do far better given some circumstances .. Like, little known secret: the NAM is phenomenal at convective initialization ..perhaps even extending into day 2. Something we just don't focus on around here for obvious practical prioritization.  blah blah... We only see it blasting through a CAD dome and well...

Whatever it is about this situation, the GFS appears poised to do better compared to the other guidance...  The Euro is probably include-able in that, but even it is slightly tinted warm comparatively( going by the granular freebie charts I've seen). Anyway, this 12z run is clearly yet ticked S-SE with the track of the low and the ptype transition axis'. We're not talking huge adjustments? No, but, given to conventional wisdom with cold air banked/CADed in like this, it is really easy to visualize the other warm-ish model cluster members as busting too far NW, so seeing the GFS do what it is doing ... it fits intuitively. It's also a better climo fit, by the way. 

24/20 hear with pin head snow flakes falling close to fog density -

Not a shock to most, save maybe one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...