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The Pope's 'And There You Have It" SWFE Feb 7 2018


moneypitmike

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You’re using the temp from a home station, some weird wx underground ptype guess, and a radar image with ptype guesstimates. The front is through there and they have westerly winds. There’s a little bit of precip leftover behind the low/mid level front so that’s why many are flipping back to ice and snow.

Which station is best for Worcester?

temp.jpg

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30 and snow/sleet combo.  Wire to wire frozen event.  Roads are a mess and everything is encased in ice and pines are sagging. The valley wins. Please let me enjoy my moment as we always seem to lag in snowfall totals around here  but at least we do well with CAD.  9 times out of 10 I'd still rather be at 1k.  Nice event.  

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3 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

30 and snow/sleet combo.  Wire to wire frozen event.  Roads are a mess and everything is encased in ice and pines are sagging. The valley wins. Please let me enjoy my moment as we always seem to lag in snowfall totals around here  but at least we do well with CAD.  9 times out of 10 I'd still rather be at 1k.  Nice event.  

12/23 was also nice. Two icestorms so far this winter.

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The whole argument yesterday morning was that he had the NAM sfc verifying with an interior low with no CAD and ORH and DAW warm sectoring with 3+ hours of moderate rain. As we debated with him he somewhat backtracked by the end of the day on DAW, but I think he still had ORH warm sectoring with hours of moderate rain. I thought he was spinning things a bit today so that’s when I started to nitpick. Anyway...it’s all in fun and we’re not keeping score, but he really seemed to be digging his heels in. We’re all wrong sometimes...I’m probably wrong more than I’m right. 

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4 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

30 and snow/sleet combo.  Wire to wire frozen event.  Roads are a mess and everything is encased in ice and pines are sagging. The valley wins. Please let me enjoy my moment as we always seem to lag in snowfall totals around here  but at least we do well with CAD.  9 times out of 10 I'd still rather be at 1k.  Nice event.  

 

2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Over to snow here, 30.7F. Stayed below freezing for the entire storm.

You guys truly danced along the edge I think.  That is pretty awesome that you stayed frozen the entire time.

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Just now, dendrite said:

The whole argument yesterday morning was that he had the NAM sfc verifying with an interior low with no CAD and ORH and DAW warm sectoring with 3+ hours of moderate rain. As we debated with him he somewhat backtracked by the end of the day on DAW, but I think he still had ORH warm sectoring with hours of moderate rain. I thought he was spinning things a bit today so that’s when I started to nitpick. Anyway...it’s all in fun and we’re not keeping score, but he really seemed to be digging his heels in. We’re all wrong sometimes...I’m probably wrong more than I’m right. 

For ORH do you mean rain with surface above 32?  We had at least 5-6 hours of ZR here

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1 minute ago, kdxken said:

No you did, - " If ORH tickles above freezing it would be when the event is almost over...but they prob won't go above freezing. "

I asked CTRain a serious question I wasn't bustin' chops.  I apologize if it seemed that way.

Ok, thanks...I thought I was going insane. Though I did technically "bust" since i said they "prob won't go above freezing" which has to count for the most likely scenario in my forecast. But did get correct the scenario in which they would if it happened....post-FROPA at the tail end of the event.

 

I do think the general forecast of virtually all frozen precip for places like ORH was successful.

As for the the whole sfc low debate vs the models, it is hard to pin down to the exact location since the low ended up quite elongated (which often happens in these)...but the 00z SPC mesoanalysis showed it from roughly SE CT through Gulf of Maine which kind of matches the "from near Ginxy to near Scooter" we were tracking in real time a couple hours ago. I would grade that as a failure for the NAM and any other model that showed the low over the interior higher terrain against a human forecaster who said it would track over southeast coastal plain areas....an idea which was the basis for the mostly frozen/freezing forecast for ORH and nearby points:

 

 

 

 

Feb8_00zsfc.gif

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