hawkeye_wx Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Most of the models tonight remained the same or trended a bit south/better over here. Then the euro comes in and shifts even farther north, into northern Iowa, than it already was. The euro has the heavy snow in the north and south, while the GFS/GDPS have it in the middle. I don't know how much we'll get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Adjusted the omega so it's not off the screen. Here's 00Z NAMnest for KDPA at noon on Friday with an excess of 20 microbars of lift nicely aligned with the DGZ here too. Using 'max temp in profile' which is using ~15:1 ratios there a couple hours 10am into noon where NAMnest gives us 1.5"/hr rates with EPV essentially zero. cobb method wants to throw in almost 3"/hr rates at this time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 06z 12km NAM came in further south and a lot wetter. 23" after all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Looking at the models and MOS outputs it’s quite an interesting storm on deck. The GFS verbatim is going 5-9” in Adrian MI while KTOL is at 3-5” and Findlay (KFDY) is at 1-2”. Just amazing to see such a sharp gradient within our viewing area, making every little wobble and bit of dry air from the south that much more important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 GFS steady on track, but snow amounts increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 15 minutes ago, RJSnowLover said: GFS steady on track, but snow amounts increased. Got a lot of people cashing in with the 06z GFS. Overall QPF higher all around, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Starting to think this upcoming week will be a memorable one for snow enthusiasts (and snow haters) in SE Michigan. 20"+ on the ground for some locales? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 28 minutes ago, RobertSul said: Starting to think this upcoming week will be a memorable one for snow enthusiasts (and snow haters) in SE Michigan. 20"+ on the ground for some locales? We already have more snow on the ground in the southern burbs than north. I have 8 on the ground in Wyandotte. Work in Farmington Hills where it's like 4-5 otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Don’t remember ever being this uncertain 15 hours before an event before. Gfs still has me around a foot while the nam has everything north. Not sure what to think. It appears the RAP & HRRR are both further south atthis point so maybe the gfs has legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 56 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: We already have more snow on the ground in the southern burbs than north. I have 8 on the ground in Wyandotte. Work in Farmington Hills where it's like 4-5 otg Never considered Farmington Hills as the ‘northern burbs’. Western yes, but not northern. You have to get into Lk Orion through Clarkston for that in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Whole shebang total snow through late Saturday/early Sunday final call. Riding the northern camp (NAM/Euro) to the end...tossing the southern outliers. DTW, Ghost of Goes-land, ORD, & SBN: 10-14" (isolated higher) Cycloneville, JOT, & MKE: 4-8" (isolated higher for the first two) IKK: DAB+ (1-2") Enjoy this one folks up north, should be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 For southern MI, this is a crazy similar set up to the 2003 prez day weekend storm down here. First streak of snow came through Friday night...then a 1 day lull and then the southern feature came on Sunday. 15" when all said and done between the two parts. Good luck guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Interesting trend since the Euro is to bring wave 2 further northwest and wetter....very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I'll bump my call locally to 3-6" for wave one. I like the long-duration nature of this storm. Also, could be a bit of help from Lake Ontario early in the event before it warms too much aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 38 minutes ago, GreenBo said: Never considered Farmington Hills as the ‘northern burbs’. Western yes, but not northern. You have to get into Lk Orion through Clarkston for that in my book. Agree, I feel you have to get north of M59 to be considered the northern burbs of metro Detroit. Most of the "northern burbs" like northern Oakland, Genesee, Lapeer and St Clair countys have a pretty deep snow pack right now. Flint to Port Huron has had a big snow season so far. Now if I could just borrow Snowfreaks magnet and take it up to northern lower for a while.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, slow poke said: Agree, I feel you have to get north of M59 to be considered the northern burbs of metro Detroit. Most of the "northern burbs" like northern Oakland, Genesee, Lapeer and St Clair countys have a pretty deep snow pack right now. Flint to Port Huron has had a big snow season so far. Now if I could just borrow Snowfreaks magnet and take it up to northern lower for a while.......... Here in northern Lapeer (Columbiaville), I have about an 8" snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Not to be too much of a , but the air definitely has that pre-snowstorm smell and feel to it. I'm ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Model runs that were once painting 5-8 inches for us have concentrated the band more narrow placing us at the southern edge with 2-4 inches. This puts into question the risk of receiving nearly nothing at all, or will things trend southward a tick and keep us secure in the action? A nail biting model day at work is in store. But I shall keep my expectations tempered. ATTM 12z RAP to 21 hours has ticked southward. but we're super on the edge in it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Wowza, 9z SREF brings the mean well above 10" for Wave 1, Wave 2 pushes it to 13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: I'll bump my call locally to 3-6" for wave one. I like the long-duration nature of this storm. Also, could be a bit of help from Lake Ontario early in the event before it warms too much aloft. Can't disagree. 2-4" imo for now looks like a solid call for wave one. We'll have to see how wave 1 orients the heaviest bands for the entire duration. We'll likely have some decent ratios to work with in the beginning and we'll see how much confluence we can get for some deformation bands. Jet dynamics are fairly strong over our region so 6.0" is definitely possible. Edit: 12z Nam backs off quite a bit, now only has 1-3" with wave 1. Wave 2 is more key for our area which has the potential to drop 4.0-8.0" under the right circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 12z NAM continues to crush I-80 north, with a brutal southward cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 12z NAM similar placement of band, overall less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: 12z NAM similar placement of band, overall less precip Widespread 12-14” totals centered on I-88 into the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Taking out the rediculously high outlier (20”+), the SREF mean for KDKB of 11” seems reasonable based on what other guidance is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 NAM is a bruiser up this way. Heavy pounding from TOL up through PTK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 12z NAM has the second wave snowing on the same area of N IL. Going to be some huge totals by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 12z NAM has the second wave snowing on the same area of N IL. Going to be some huge totals by the end of the run. Looking good for yet another wave Saturday night too.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Precipitation is clearly reduced from 6z. Still solid, but definitely lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 8 hours ago, Central Illinois said: 2nd round on the 00z Euro has a decent icing event for C Indiana and W 1/3rd of Ohio according to P-type maps IND already mentioning this possibility in their forecasts. Not looking forward to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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