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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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Just now, Malacka11 said:

Also, it is a little odd/frustrating that instead of more clarity, we're getting less from the various models

These are my thoughts exactly, which means I'm really counting on the Euro model to lean toward the NAM or the GFS. Also, while the 0z RGEM isn't out yet, it seems to be consistently following the southern track that the GFS is leading the pack on. Also, the GFS has been incredibly consistent, even though we are splitting hairs with this storm. Maybe I'm just optimistic for some snow in Valparaiso, but still...

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Very difficult forecast for here/QC.  NAM keeps the WAA wing precip north of us all evening and early overnight tomorrow night, which I'm leaning toward per what I mentioned earlier.  6-8" of snow will likely fall in the northern two tiers of IL counties before we see the snow begin.  I'm gonna go with 2-4" for here, and also the QC.  Pretty much going with a full whiff with the WAA stuff, and will have to count on the late night/Friday morning back side to produce.  If I'm wrong about the over-achieving mid-level WAA my forecast will go down in flames lol, but I'm basing it on past experience.

EDIT:  I'm gonna go with 8-12" for Dubuque/Bellevue to Rockford/Poplar Grove to Geos/Buffalo Grove.

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Very difficult forecast for here/QC.  NAM keeps the WAA wing precip north of us all evening and early overnight tomorrow night, which I'm leaning toward per what I mentioned earlier.  6-8" of snow will likely fall in the northern two tiers of IL counties before we see the snow begin.  I'm gonna go with 2-4" for here, and also the QC.  Pretty much going with a full whiff with the WAA stuff, and will have to count on the late night/Friday morning back side to produce.  If I'm wrong about the over-achieving mid-level WAA my forecast will go down in flames lol, but I'm basing it on past experience.

EDIT:  I'm gonna go with 8-12" for Dubuque/Bellevue to Rockford/Poplar Grove to Geos/Buffalo Grove.

The December WAA systems last season lend credence to you as every single one of them ended up north of consensus. Also worth noting that many of them also underperformed.

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12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Very difficult forecast for here/QC.  NAM keeps the WAA wing precip north of us all evening and early overnight tomorrow night, which I'm leaning toward per what I mentioned earlier.  6-8" of snow will likely fall in the northern two tiers of IL counties before we see the snow begin.  I'm gonna go with 2-4" for here, and also the QC.  Pretty much going with a full whiff with the WAA stuff, and will have to count on the late night/Friday morning back side to produce.  If I'm wrong about the over-achieving mid-level WAA my forecast will go down in flames lol, but I'm basing it on past experience.

EDIT:  I'm gonna go with 8-12" for Dubuque/Bellevue to Rockford/Poplar Grove to Geos/Buffalo Grove.

03z RAP looks encouraging.

I am more optimistic for your area than you are.  Hopefully you get some good snow.

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

03z RAP looks encouraging.

I am more optimistic for your area than you are.  Hopefully you get some good snow.

Yeah we'll see.  Worst case scenario we'll still get a decent snow on the backside, so no worries.  These model battles right up until crunch time are pretty entertaining, and keep things interesting.  Obviously pretty frustrating from a forecast standpoint though lol.

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12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Other than the GFS moving a tick south, the rest of the models have locked in at this point. I like where I sit going into Friday.

Through IL, it is sure looking like Ottawa-LaSalle-Peru to Kankakee is going to be the main track of the snow field.

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The GFS & NAM converge on a S Lakes band of FGEN/overrunning in West-east band with impressive vv’s for several hours with good moisture wrung out over the region. jet couplet in S Lakes will aid in band of heaviest snow. NAM Kucera pushes a foot+ while 10/1 more 8-12. Gfs a bit more temped but this system bares watching. I’ve worked systems like the model is setting up where 8-10” fell in a rather narrow band from strong lift along front/baroclinic zone. Also the cut-off to south really plays havoc with forecast. I don’t dare post this map on my WH Page as not confident at all with the zealous amounts - but like banding reflections. Will watch for further confirmations....also band positioning is variable enuf yet between models to also wait.

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020800&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

 

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18 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

100% agree. This looks like an almost non-event for MBY...thinking 1-3" total by the time it's all done, hoping the last push drops a little something. Riding the Euro which has been north of here all along. Looks like the 6z NAM has moved to it's camp as well. Good luck to those up north. Should be a really solid event for you ORD, MKE, DTW, etc folks.

 

 

41 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Very difficult forecast for here/QC.  NAM keeps the WAA wing precip north of us all evening and early overnight tomorrow night, which I'm leaning toward per what I mentioned earlier.  6-8" of snow will likely fall in the northern two tiers of IL counties before we see the snow begin.  I'm gonna go with 2-4" for here, and also the QC.  Pretty much going with a full whiff with the WAA stuff, and will have to count on the late night/Friday morning back side to produce.  If I'm wrong about the over-achieving mid-level WAA my forecast will go down in flames lol, but I'm basing it on past experience.

EDIT:  I'm gonna go with 8-12" for Dubuque/Bellevue to Rockford/Poplar Grove to Geos/Buffalo Grove.

 

You 2 will never change :wub:

MKE says bring them amounts down..  No shocker here.  Tough spot they were in but they're known to jump guns.

 

 

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Through IL, it is sure looking like Ottawa-LaSalle-Peru to Kankakee is going to be the main track of the snow field.
Should be north of that axis, I think somewhere in the area bracketed by roughly I-90 and I-80 in Illinois will be the sweet spot. Center point of that line is I-88 corridor, which seems to be the averaged out sweet spot on the guidance. But certainly could see it anywhere in that general region with still significant amounts either side of banding. GFS has been southern outlier and pretty consistently south of its ensembles. 00z run more so tightened gradient than ticked south, heaviest band actually jumped north a decent bit to along/south of I-88 to just south of I-80.

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Euro continues to be very stingy with QPF and even more north of NAM. Don't know what to make of it. Can't rule out the northern band positioning but I do suspect it's too stingy with the qpf. This setup should have more going for it with more moisture available and a tighter baroclinic zone/stronger f-gen than Monday was capable of and that was correctly portrayed by high res models to have the swath of 8-12" amounts.

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2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Euro continues to be very stingy with QPF and even more north of NAM. Don't know what to make of it. Can't rule out the northern band positioning but I do suspect it's too stingy with the qpf. This setup should have more going for it with more moisture available and a tighter baroclinic zone/stronger f-gen than Monday was capable of and that was correctly portrayed by high res models to have the swath of 8-12" amounts.

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Yeah this might be one of those Euro is being cheap on the moisture situations, not that we haven't seen that song and dance before. It has not wavered in location of the band though for a few runs and is pretty identical to the NAM3km out this way.

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Yeah the Euro is pretty NAM-like in it's placement with the WAA wing precip tomorrow night, and perhaps even a bit further north.  I agree with RC in that it's probably too stingy with precip.  In the old days the EE rule would have folks up near the WI/IL border feeling pretty good about now.  I personally think that is the place to be, but of course the GFS has been on a roll lately so who knows.

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