SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: Wow, big changed on the 21z SREF mean. Up to 8+ inches with a decent cluster over 10 Yep, 8 as a mean, only two below 4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 You guys all enjoy round 1. I'm holding out for round 2. My gut is saying I80 north for first wave and I80 south for second wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 NAM is north compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, RJSnowLover said: NAM is north compared to 18z. In Iowa yes, but once it rounds the bend it looks to be about the same, maybe a minor hair north but nothing more than 10-20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 That just means the gfs will be even further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, CoalCityWxMan said: That just means the gfs will be even further south GFS did do well with the clipper a few days ago so here's to hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: In Iowa yes, but once it rounds the bend it looks to be about the same, maybe a minor hair north but nothing more than 10-20 miles. Yeah; I saw it at 30 hours & it looked like it was going to be decently north. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 NAM really cut back on the northern edge of the precious and narrows the banding quite a bit. Will be curious to see if the 3km concurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, mimillman said: NAM really cut back on the northern edge of the precious and narrows the banding quite a bit. Will be curious to see if the 3km concurs What an accurate autocorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Snow amounts are still over a foot in Chicago, but not the crazy 18-20 from 18z. EDIT: As of 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: What an accurate autocorrect Particularly appropriate after just watching Lord of the Rings for the first time last Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Nam did that with the clipper a few days ago. It was too narrow with the frontogenesis band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Nam did that with the clipper a few days ago. It was too narrow with the frontogenesis band Yeah I don't quite agree with the narrowing of the band, I will say the razor's edge on the southern side of the band is going to be there though. It is going to mean heartbreak for someone unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Nam is strange with the second wave. It's like several different light waves instead of one cohesive one like gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Yeah I don't quite agree with the narrowing of the band, I will say the razor's edge on the southern side of the band is going to be there though. It is going to mean heartbreak for someone unfortunately. Def one of those dreaded thread the needle events with brutal cutoffs over short distances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah I don't quite agree with the narrowing of the band, I will say the razor's edge on the southern side of the band is going to be there though. It is going to mean heartbreak for someone unfortunately. That would be and usually is mwah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 That secondary wave is such a disorganized and dysfunctional looking storm on the 0z Nam. Lack of proper phasing between the jets and a messy H5 means it'll probably be nothing more than a frontal wave. Even looking at the jet streak at 250mb, it doesn't seem highly favourable for something big and will probably be a prolonged period of light snow for some of us. The 12z CMC probably had a half decent H5 look, but even then it was too late and not enough convergence to allow for intensification. Maybe such upper air issues will likely be resolved when sampled tomorrow night, so lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowstorms said: That secondary wave is such a disorganized and dysfunctional looking storm on the 0z Nam. Lack of proper phasing between the jets and a messy H5 means it'll probably be nothing more than a frontal wave. Even looking at the jet streak at 250mb, it doesn't seem highly favourable for something big and will probably be a prolonged period of light snow for some of us. The 12z CMC probably had a half decent H5 look, but even then it was too late and not enough convergence to allow for intensification. Maybe such upper air issues will likely be resolved when sampled tomorrow night, so lets see! Yea I wouldn't buy into anything yet. What happens with this first wave will have implications on the second wave. Still major model discrepancies on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Cutoff is brutal as others have mentioned. I think I have looked at just about every model for this one (including stuff like the ICON and JMA)... and I'd say more of them than not have the sharp gradient south of here, but can't help but be nervous. Area about 20 miles north of here has a bit more wiggle room to play with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 3km NAM didn't shift at all. Still locked in with hammering the bottom 3 tiers of counties in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Best potential all season within 24hrs. Looks like good agreement on 6-9", with locally higher amounts around here. Where the max axis sets up and where the southern gradient is, is the question though. As I said last night, see me tomorrow evening before I'm fully onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 ICON's shifted a bit farther north, maybe 00z: 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 IWX addresses the cutoff nicely... " Overnight miss along srn flank of baroclinic zone south of highway 6 a good proxy for inherent forecast issues relegated to potential winter storm beginning Thu night. While vast bulk of 00Z/12Z guidance cycles similar with centroid of significant qpf stripe invof tight low level baroclinic zone Thu night-Fri night, proximity of dry air within expanding warm sector problematic. Thus extreme north-south snow gradient expected with inherent bust potential high along srn flank across nrn IN into nw OH. In fact zone of intense isentropic lift only 4 counties deep so any additional fluctuation in progged baroclinic zone placement will have obvious huge ramifications on realized snow amounts. Whatever the case do expect a band of intense snowfall will materialize invof the IN/MI stateline or just south where longest duration of most intense lift/moisture combine with multi-model support for 12"+ and rapid fall off to nothing south toward the highway 24 corridor. Lack of given trend/direction warrants holding pat with prior watch issuance with plenty of time yet to jump should a definite trend develop in later model solutions." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 GFS solid. Imagine we see upgrades to warnings by tomorrow morning. Edit: Woof, 7-13” in the P&C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajl_from_Valpo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 The 0z GFS went a little further south, again. Meanwhile the 12km NAM did the opposite. I feel like as we get closer, models are diverging rather than converging, so it would be really nice if the 0z Euro does something meaningful. I do feel like the GFS has had a better handle on some of the Chicago area snow events recently, and looking at the NWS map, they seem to be leaning more on that. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Suffice to say I don't really know what I'm talking about, but I'm waiting to look at the RGEM before I give more credence to GFS. That's just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajl_from_Valpo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, Malacka11 said: Suffice to say I don't really know what I'm talking about, but I'm waiting to look at the RGEM before I give more credence to GFS. That's just my two cents. This may sound like a stupid question, but what time does the RGEM run at? It's not a model I tend to look at, so I'm not familiar with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, ajl_from_Valpo said: This may sound like a stupid question, but what time does the RGEM run at? It's not a model I tend to look at, so I'm not familiar with it... It should've been out already (comes in around or just behind the NAM), but it's not, at least at the sites I use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, ajl_from_Valpo said: This may sound like a stupid question, but what time does the RGEM run at? It's not a model I tend to look at, so I'm not familiar with it... Dude that's my exact problem. I honestly don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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