hlcater Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: 18z RGEM is also on the southern end Seems it usually is? Although sometimes it ends up being right, like Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 32 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'll go with a first guess of 10-14"... event total, but most of it falling before Saturday. Leaning away from the drier Euro and more toward the consensus, including the 3 km NAM which should be useful given mesoscale banding. I think it's possible that even that is a bit conservative if that heavy band really performs and doesn't wobble away prematurely, but I feel like this is the reasonable/likely but not snowiest possible outcome. You're looking good...solid first guess. Think I'm going 1-12" for IKK. Lower end is more likely of course...probably more like 1-3". I need the non NAM-Euro solutions to work out for MBY, so yeah. Of course Saturday's action could help things all along, but first things first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 NAM and Euro are probably too far north. GFS and RGEM are probably too far south. Euro is probably underdone on QPF. Others are probably overdone on QPF. Blend gets you a solid storm basically right along I-80, just to the south of Chicago. 6-10" locked and loaded, final call here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, mimillman said: NAM and Euro are probably too far north. GFS and RGEM are probably too far south. Euro is probably underdone on QPF. Others are probably overdone on QPF. Blend gets you a solid storm basically right along I-80, just to the south of Chicago. 6-10" locked and loaded, final call here. I think 6-10” is a safe call between 80 and 88, with the potential for far more depending on where the banding sets up. Its nice for chicago (and my area) that the storm is honed in enough that the north to south shifts keep us within the envelope. Should start to have a real good idea once the waves are sampled this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: impressive Probably more accurate than "the NAM will have main banding over Green Bay tomorrow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Quite the spread on the 15z SREF plume for ORD. First wave has a range of [0.04, 11.90] with a mean of 5.30. There's a cluster of runs between 0-2.5 and a second cluster between 7.5 and 9.5 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 lol @ the NAM sending the main snow band NORTH of YYZ. RGEM not being as far north is sort of a red flag for me. Like the further south solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: lol @ the NAM sending the main snow band NORTH of YYZ. RGEM not being as far north is sort of a red flag for me. Like the further south solutions. I'm thinking something between RGEM and NAM on Friday for YYZ. We'll get some clarity tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 We can agree that the GFS is a southern outlier correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 And the RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 These WAA type events always make me worried things may trend north in the final hours, but I will say it's good to have the GFS on our side after how it's been doing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Not looking forward to a foot of snow. Snowpack is going to seriously mute any warm ups we see in the near future which sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, cmillzz said: Not looking forward to a foot of snow. Snowpack is going to seriously mute any warm ups we see in the near future which sucks. The complaint thread is down the road, head there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: These WAA type events always make me worried things may trend north in the final hours, but I will say it's good to have the GFS on our side after how it's been doing lately. I see, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: These WAA type events always make me worried things may trend north in the final hours, but I will say it's good to have the GFS on our side after how it's been doing lately. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a slight northward adjustment, but this is not a Madison special. We look to be in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 28 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: I'm thinking something between RGEM and NAM on Friday for YYZ. We'll get some clarity tonight. Which is basically a direct hit I'd favour the southern solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said: Which is basically a direct hit I'd favour the southern solutions. I'm thinking maybe another 2-4" is for us? We may be nickle and diming it, but we may just end up with average snowfall this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I wouldn’t be shocked to see a slight northward adjustment, but this is not a Madison special. We look to be in a good spot You guys along and north of I-88 are hopefully safe. The NAM and it's ultra sharp cutoff on the southern edge of the WAA precip makes me a bit nervous lol. My gut says Dubuque/Rockford/Geosville will get the heart of that band FWIW. If tonight's GFS comes in similar to what it's been advertising I'll probably become quite a bit more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: You guys along and north of I-88 are hopefully safe. The NAM and it's ultra sharp cutoff on the southern edge of the WAA precip makes me a bit nervous lol. My gut says Dubuque/Rockford/Geosville will get the heart of that band FWIW. If tonight's GFS comes in similar to what it's been advertising I'll probably become quite a bit more optimistic. Just to clarify, you mean "safe" as in "going to get the advertised amount of snow", right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Which is basically a direct hit I'd favour the southern solutions. My gut agrees with the further south solutions as well. We should get a few inches here in London if that does play out. If euro or NAM are correct it’ll be 6”+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm thinking maybe another 2-4" is for us? We may be nickle and diming it, but we may just end up with average snowfall this year. I think that's fair for the first wave. Might see additional with later waves but the models have been inconsistent with placement/amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: You guys along and north of I-88 are hopefully safe. The NAM and it's ultra sharp cutoff on the southern edge of the WAA precip makes me a bit nervous lol. My gut says Dubuque/Rockford/Geosville will get the heart of that band FWIW. If tonight's GFS comes in similar to what it's been advertising I'll probably become quite a bit more optimistic. The NAM has a classic "heavy band" look to me, much like you normally see with more classic clippers. The heaviest totals would reside about 25-40 miles north of that cutoff and rates/ratios might be quite nice within it. I am not as optimistic about a northward shift though. I think this is a Wapallo-streator-Kankakee special. I do agree with the forum consensus of give or take 8-12" in the heaviest band(with a potential to overperform?) EDIT: I changed the towns to make it more clear what I meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I don't know if I agree with the talk of South being the way to go, the LLJ is going to be ripping from the south, it is hard to discount that. Not saying the NAM12 is correct either because I think that is too far north but I do think the NAM3km is not a bad solution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Just to clarify, you mean "safe" as in "going to get the advertised amount of snow", right? Safe from the sharp southern cutoff from a NAM-like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, cyclone77 said: Safe from the sharp southern cutoff from a NAM-like solution. I see, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: I don't know if I agree with the talk of South being the way to go, the LLJ is going to be ripping from the south, it is hard to discount that. Not saying the NAM12 is correct either because I think that is too far north but I do think the NAM3km is not a bad solution at this point. I see the northern wave sort of shearing/de-amplifying which will create a great deal of confluence between the two streams. This imo will force the baroclinic zone more to the south. We'll see but that's why I'm running with the GFS/RGEM. I've been wrong a lot this winter. Happy to be wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 An early look at the HRRRx has the WAA precip way north tomorrow night up in northern IA/southern MN. Strong WAA aloft is something that always loves to over-perform. Tonight's 00z runs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 SREF plume mean jumped from 4 to 7 between 15z and 21z runs. Still some wide spread from 12" down to 1" with a couple models pushing us near 40 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Wow, big changed on the 21z SREF mean. Up to 8+ inches with a decent cluster over 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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