mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3km NAM beauty hit for the Chicago metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea I'm not seeing a south jog. If anything it went more north. I think I'm out of the game for this 1st wave but 2nd wave looks to be south of this one Not sure its really more south, just much more expansive from WI to I-80 with the heavy totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 NAM is like the MN Vikings of models. But that's probably even an insult to the NAM. I thought this 18Z NAM would be like the start of the Vikings driving for what would have been a game-winning field goal and had called a timeout before huddling up on third-and-10 from the Saints' 33. This NAM system feels more like the,1998 NFC Championship Game - You Effed up Gary and kicked it wide left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 26 minutes ago, tuanis said: White hot. Not seeing that southern nudge, though. Pretty sharp cutoff along I-80. It was when I posted, through 42 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Wonder if the gfs will jump on the nam train or hold steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It was when I posted, through 42 hrs or so. seemed like maybe it was a tad slower and more influence from high in the early stages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Wonder if the gfs will jump on the nam train or hold steady steady. I've seen this play by the NAM never come to fruition in this time range over and over and over so many times over the yrs. Never say never I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, UMB WX said: steady. I've seen this play by the NAM never come to fruition in this time range over and over and over so many times over the yrs. Never say never I guess. I mean, every system is different of course but the nam did do this for a time with the Monday system while the gfs held south, and the gfs won. Again anything’s possible but I see your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Baum said: So what's the median model snowfall output for Cedar Rapids between the GEM, NAM, GFS, and Euro? 12z runs for CR Euro: 0.25" UK: 0.40" GFS: 0.45 NAM: 0.50 GDPS: 0.80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 ^also is about half of what some models were showing for CR just yesterday. Has gone down hill quickly for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z runs for CR Euro: 0.25" UK: 0.40" GFS: 0.45 NAM: 0.50 GDPS: 0.80" Not a disaster. Looks like a solid 4-7" snowfall if things hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The first wave should produce quite the snowfall precipice over here on the south edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 26 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It was when I posted, through 42 hrs or so. I think it is a bit amped up, I would lean more so on the 3km which is much more within the consensus. The 12km even tries to bring rain into this area, I don't buy that for one second, especially looking at the thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Oakland, Wayne, Lenawee, McComb, Livingston, Washtenaw,and Monroe counties in MI are under a Winter Storm Watch from Thursday into Friday for 5-9" possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 As predicted, the gfs holds strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: As predicted, the gfs holds strong. Further south with main band even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Further south with main band even Yup, bumped about 20 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Congrats Kankakee Tim! long 6 hrs to 0Z after that underwhelming suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Something has to ride that SE ridge up and clock Detroit twice. Another Fab Feb in Motown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Yup, bumped about 20 miles south. Maybe. It looks pretty damn close to the prior run. But those tiny shifts make a big difference for those on the southern fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 This is ridiculous. The nam has me seeing 2-4” while the gfs has 14-17” Makes it hard to forecast with any sort of confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I'll go with a first guess of 10-14"... event total, but most of it falling before Saturday. Leaning away from the drier Euro and more toward the consensus, including the 3 km NAM which should be useful given mesoscale banding. I think it's possible that even that is a bit conservative if that heavy band really performs and doesn't wobble away prematurely, but I feel like this is the reasonable/likely but not snowiest possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Sorry for asking when it might be easy to find, but where can I locate GFS and NAM maps? I used to have them bookmarked on my old computer, but after it crashed and had to get a new one, everything is gone. I would love to be able to see the differences in NAM and GFS in regards to me and my best friend's parents that I help care for who are 45 minutes south of me. Thanks in advance guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajl_from_Valpo Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The 18z GFS has generally held steady in terms of storm track, but overall precip looks lower. Meanwhile, the 3km NAM is a thing of beauty for Chicago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Here are the approximate 60-hr precip totals on the IL/WI border, per the 18z models. Can worry about the following 36 hours (Wave 2) later; wanted to focus on Wave 1 for now. NAM: 1.1" 3-km NAM: 0.8" GFS: 0.4" Using 14:1 ratios (which seems reasonable at this point), that means a snowfall range of 5" to 15" for Wave 1. Just reinforces that it's still too far out to pin anything down. Should have better sampling for 00z runs tonight, at which time the goal posts should narrow a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, DAWGNKITTEN said: Sorry for asking when it might be easy to find, but where can I locate GFS and NAM maps? I used to have them bookmarked on my old computer, but after it crashed and had to get a new one, everything is gone. I would love to be able to see the differences in NAM and GFS in regards to me and my best friend's parents that I help care for who are 45 minutes south of me. Thanks in advance guys. Pivotalweather.com is a nice, simple site to view models on. There’s also wxbell.com or tropicaltidbits.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajl_from_Valpo Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'll go with a first guess of 10-14"... event total, but most of it falling before Saturday. Leaning away from the drier Euro and more toward the consensus, including the 3 km NAM which should be useful given mesoscale banding. I think it's possible that even that is a bit conservative if that heavy band really performs and doesn't wobble away prematurely, but I feel like this is the reasonable/likely but not snowiest possible outcome. My concern is that even within the zone of preferred heaviest snowfall, mesoscale banding could greatly vary what falls in certain areas. Also, NWS Chicago briefly mentions lake enhancement, which would obviously bump up totals in NW Indiana and SW Michigan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 IWX's snowfall map for their CWA for Thursday night through Friday evening. I'll wave as it passes by to the north and take my one inch and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'll go with a first guess of 10-14"... event total, but most of it falling before Saturday. Leaning away from the drier Euro and more toward the consensus, including the 3 km NAM which should be useful given mesoscale banding. I think it's possible that even that is a bit conservative if that heavy band really performs and doesn't wobble away prematurely, but I feel like this is the reasonable/likely but not snowiest possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 18z RGEM is also on the southern end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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