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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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17 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Wave 3 is a doa here. NAM shows that virtually all the precip (even PL or ZR) will miss us to the NW. 

Looks like you're going to be right, unfortunately. Still, can't really complain. The first two waves performed quite well here and it does look like a winter wonderland outside.

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Weaseling up on 4" when its all said and done.    Time to clear it and head out to the BIL's in Big Bend, WI. for a sled ride down to Lake Geneva area. Going to be nuts on the trails.  I can't remember the trails being open on a Sunday in the last 3 winters,.  MKE has the trails but Detroit corralled most of the snow over that time.  Enjoy your Sunday gang.

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12 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Sitting at 3.8” overnight with another bit of light snow working through. Will easily exceed 4” and if we get under a better band may make a run at 5” 

Yeah, looks like I finally need to get out and snow blow the driveway for the first time this winter.

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21 hours ago, IWXwx said:

The next wave looks butt ugly for the FWA area. The GFS profile looks good for some sl@#t, (although the map shows mostly zr), while 3km NAM soundings show a good chance of freezing rain (although map shows mostly s@#$t). Both models are only spitting out about 0.15" qpf, so anyway you slice it, things won't get out of hand, but just another slap in the face to those of us that ended up just south of the big dog.

Congrats to those that scored. It looks like both models were right in that I was getting both frizzle and s#%t at the same time this morning. Just a white glaze out there.

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1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Looks like you're going to be right, unfortunately. Still, can't really complain. The first two waves performed quite well here and it does look like a winter wonderland outside.

First two waves performed as expected (or slightly better) in terms of amounts relative to my forecast. However, the models in both cases were too generous with the duration of the snowfall. Yesterday the snow cut off especially early as we only ended up with about 6 hours of snowfall. Had the snow persisted, with the rates we were seeing, it could have been more impressive.

And wave 3 is a dud. All in all...5.5" here. My range was 6-8" so a small bust.

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I picked up 1.3" overnight from 0.10" liquid, so the HRRR did become a bit too wet.

My total for the entire series of waves is 6.1".  I ended up on the edge of every wave.  6.1" is not bad, and we finally have a real snow pack for once, but it still would've been nice to get a biggie in there somewhere among the nickel/dimers.

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One of the best weeks of snow in a while, got another 4" last night to bring us to 18 inches since last Sunday, and 13.5 since Thursday here on SW side of Chicago. Walking the dog this morning everyone had the same look of helplessness trying to shovel onto the chest-high piles. Overall depth is 13" in one of the few undisturbed spots I was able to find.

IMG_20180211_104058886.jpg

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54 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

5.1” here for wave three for a 13.5” “storm” total. What a weekend. 

Time to publicly shame myself for a pretty basic error. I forgot to clear the boards yesterday morning after I measured, so today’s data is .8” too high. Corrected totals:

 

4.3” for wave three, 12.7” overall. 

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36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There's a fence there.  Really.

 

20180211_142233.thumb.jpg.bedd47f99cace7494d3017c0b4f673b4.jpg

 

Higher mid Feb sun angle doing work on cleared paved areas even with temps in the teens.    

This is the deepest I've seen snow here since early Feb '15, after the GHDII storm.  Was pretty fun tracking these waves the past week or so.

My call for that enhanced band from Tipton up towards Rockford didn't pan out.  Convergence band developed but was pretty meh, and washed out pretty quickly.  My call for 2-3" with isolated higher amounts was generally okay, but maybe should have just went 2-4" and called it a day.  DVN's decision to bump up to 4-6" ended up being too high as expected.

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