cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Gonna stick with 2-3" with locally higher amounts for here and the good ol' QC. Models are generally in the 0.15-0.20" range for this area. Expecting LSRs in the 13:1-15:1 range. For me there's been too long of breaks between the waves to consider it one system. Definitely been a very period of activity though even though we've sort of slipped between the cracks in this area compared to some surrounding areas up until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 Maybe me and Stebo should start more threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Gonna stick with 2-3" with locally higher amounts for here and the good ol' QC. Models are generally in the 0.15-0.20" range for this area. Expecting LSRs in the 13:1-15:1 range. For me there's been too long of breaks between the waves to consider it one system. Definitely been a very period of activity though even though we've sort of slipped between the cracks in this area compared to some surrounding areas up until tonight. I wonder what the "official" standard is on this, if there even is one that is widely accepted. After GHD 2011 I think LOT went back and adjusted the amounts upward on some previous big multi day storms because the breaks weren't deemed to be long enough. Even with the breaks, technically it will snow on every calendar day from the 8th to 11th and the baroclinic zone has been fairly stagnant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Getting a bit concerned with ILX upping the ice potential now to .20 and IWX talking about possible convective elements. Gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 Finished today with 3.0" and 3.0" yesterday bringing my two day total to ~6.0". Will likely get no more than an inch tomorrow if were lucky. Too much WAA at 850 means freezing rain and sleet all day. Not bad overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I wonder what the "official" standard is on this, if there even is one that is widely accepted. After GHD 2011 I think LOT went back and adjusted the amounts upward on some previous big multi day storms because the breaks weren't deemed to be long enough. Even with the breaks, technically it will snow on every calendar day from the 8th to 11th and the baroclinic zone has been fairly stagnant. Yeah I'm not sure. Maybe RC has some info on that. I think for me it just seemed like if we add up all these events it can almost take away from a solid single "event" that dumped similar amounts. I don't know, maybe it's just a personal perception kind of thing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah I'm not sure. Maybe RC has some info on that. I think for me it just seemed like if we add up all these events it can almost take away from a solid single "event" that dumped similar amounts. I don't know, maybe it's just a personal perception kind of thing lol. Not to fully speak for him, but I know he is on-board with it being counted as one event overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Getting a bit concerned with ILX upping the ice potential now to .20 and IWX talking about possible convective elements. Gonna be interesting. Yea the stuff just north of I-72 in IL definitely has a convective/squally look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 3z RAP http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2018021103&fh=15&r=conus&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 HRRR continues to like the band developing through the CR/IC area of east-central Iowa. I hope its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Given observational trends and model guidance, think 4-7" across the area is a solid call, with localized higher amounts possibly from the metro on north into SE. WI. Probably will see a decent period of SN to +SN overnight and into tomorrow morning. Definitely looks like an overachiever compared to what some guidance shows and what this looked like a day ago. System is organizing faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Given observational trends and model guidance, think 4-7" across the area is a solid call, with localized higher amounts possibly from the metro on north into SE. WI. Probably will see a decent period of SN to +SN overnight and into tomorrow morning. Definitely looks like an overachiever compared to what some guidance shows and what this looked like a day ago. System is organizing faster. Pretty much agree with that. Radar trends are looking nice. Probably could argue for a warning in some counties but weekend timing with much of it falling overnight means it probably won't happen unless amounts really go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 First flakes ahead of schedule.....not pixie dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 HRRR shows Windsor in the freezing rain sector for some time... Not liking this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Nice little bump up in precip on the last few RAP/HRRR runs. Widespread 0.2-0.3" from the nose of Iowa eastward through northern IL/southeast WI. The little dry slot (actually just much lighter precip) coming out of northeast MO into southeast IA is keeping me from upping amounts for this area. 2-3" with isolated higher amounts should still cover it. That convergent band from the nose of IA through the northwest corner of IL could really perform later this eve (Tipton to Freeport/Rockford). Wouldn't be surprised to see some 4-6" amounts there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Radar has filled in with nice banding, but there's still nothing reaching the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Radar nearing midnight EST/11 PM CST in the lower Great Lakes and middle Mississippi Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Nice little bump up in precip on the last few RAP/HRRR runs. Widespread 0.2-0.3" from the nose of Iowa eastward through northern IL/southeast WI. The little dry slot (actually just much lighter precip) coming out of northeast MO into southeast IA is keeping me from upping amounts for this area. 2-3" with isolated higher amounts should still cover it. That convergent band from the nose of IA through the northwest corner of IL could really perform later this eve (Tipton to Freeport/Rockford). Wouldn't be surprised to see some 4-6" amounts there. 4Z RAP gets wetter.http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2018021104&fh=13&r=conus&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Looks much more like the start of a snowstorm by looking out the window and the radar than Thursday evening. How's that for deep analysis.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 DVN just bumped cycloneville up to 4-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 HRRR and RAP have to be drunk out this way. There's no way we see 4" out of this. N IL on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: HRRR and RAP have to be drunk out this way. There's no way we see 4" out of this. N IL on the other hand... Yeah, 1, maybe 2 if we're lucky, is my guess. It only just now started to snow very lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: HRRR and RAP have to be drunk out this way. There's no way we see 4" out of this. N IL on the other hand... They did well last night placement and total wise to a degree, but agree they look a bit too far NW in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 I haven't rode the NAM and HRR as much in the last 10 yrs as I have the last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Radar looks nice for these parts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Baum said: Radar looks nice for these parts.... Have a few subsidence pockets showing on on radar, so precip is likely a bit convective-ish in nature. Not surprising given this is WAA wing precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 The advisory starts at 06z and we already have 30-35 dBZ moderate-heavy snow in parts of area so I'd say things look good. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 About counting this all as one event or multiple events, I'd be in favor as keeping it one, but we did handle Thursday-Friday as one event in our top news. We'll have time to address it if tonight really overperforms and ORD ends up in top 10. Otherwise it's kind of moot. But with this setup we've had same stalled baroclinic zone with multiple waves along it so it has feel of same event despite some breaks. All in all the most impressive extended stretch of snow around here since 2014 winter. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Anyone in the area worried about the Chicago metro getting dry slotted? Almost has that look seeing the radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Anyone in the area worried about the Chicago metro getting dry slotted? Almost has that look seeing the radar... South of I-80 looks pretty likely, at least for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.