UMB WX Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: You're no-where near a mix. Oh I know that. Just commenting it's too bad this one can't gets its act together. In the big picture Its not far off from being something other than the last 3 yrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 After being grazed by the first two waves I think tonight we'll be sort of be in the middle of things. I'm gonna go with 2-3" with isolated higher amounts for here/QC. The main band tonight doesn't look to be quite as focused, so don't think we'll see the 7-8" reports we saw last night. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 4-6" reports though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
totsata Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 First post after following this board since 2012 (primarily to track winter storms). I want to thank everyone for sharing their knowledge, views, and laughs. Dreamt of becoming a met as a kid, but life took too me another direction so the dream became a hobby. Wanted to share a couple of what I think cool 960 fps videos shot this morning on my phone. Apologies that I did not shoot in landscape mode, promise will do next time and the black bars will be gone. Videos are from wave 2 with one of the most picturesque flakes I have seen in a while. In couple of the videos tried to capture the interaction between the flakes and bare ground, but couldn't get the timing perfect. I hope you will enjoy them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, totsata said: First post after following this board since 2012 (primarily to track winter storms). I want to thank everyone for sharing their knowledge, views, and laughs. Dreamt of becoming a met as a kid, but life took too me another direction so the dream became a hobby. Wanted to share a couple of what I think cool 960 fps videos shot this morning on my phone. Apologies that I did not shoot in landscape mode, promise will do next time and the black bars will be gone. Videos are from wave 2 with one of the most picturesque flakes I have seen in a while. In couple of the videos tried to capture the interaction between the flakes and bare ground, but couldn't get the timing perfect. I hope you will enjoy them! Welcome aboard. Nice vids! Pretty cool idea no pun intended lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 19 hours ago, Tim from Springfield (IL) said: SPI had a similar event 12 years Sunday (2/11/2006). Banded snow dumped 7-8 inches just in the city proper but almost nothing on either side of Springfield. Little did we know that was the start of an unforgettable weather year in Springfield and Central IL--this surprise dump occurred exactly one month and one day prior to the two EF2's on 3/12. https://www.weather.gov/media/ilx/Research-Case_Studies/Feb11_2006_BandedSnow.pdf Thanks for that good read! And it reveals to me they have to look at far more models and stats than me just having a look at the big computer model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: Wave 3 is a doa here. NAM shows that virtually all the precip (even PL or ZR) will miss us to the NW. Yes, but can we believe that? Best to Nowcast I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Up to almost 3". Precip shield is breaking up a bit. Maybe we'll see some redevelopment and tack on a bit more to the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Models still showing a bit of sleet mixing in tomorrow but again looking at the soundings the warm layer isn't that large and is isothermal with 0c line. I could see this ending up as mostly if not all snow for most of DTX except the far southeast where the other issue is a bit of drying in the DGZ, which could lead to a bit of freezing rain/drizzle kind of like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Models still showing a bit of sleet mixing in tomorrow but again looking at the soundings the warm layer isn't that large and is isothermal with 0c line. I could see this ending up as mostly if not all snow for most of DTX except the far southeast where the other issue is a bit of drying in the DGZ, which could lead to a bit of freezing rain/drizzle kind of like today. Do you believe what the latest NAM is depicting for tomorrow? It seems to have all the precip missing Detroit to the northwest as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 RAP, GFS and HRRR have dropped QPF in Iowa, and that is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajl_from_Valpo Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Man, the HRRR went from a 3-5" storm down to a dusting in Iowa, in just a few runs. Also bringing some banding through the 2nd tier of counties in NW Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 5” is probably too high and I would shift this southeast a tad, but generally agree and am happy to see that LOT ended up hoisting the advisory after all. I think most of the public had no idea this was coming after yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Wow, latest HRRR runs have me getting nearly 8 inches tomorrow! RAP has me getting 6 inches. It would be nice to be in the synoptic bulls eye for once....NOT the I-94 corridor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Freezing Rain starting to pick up hereSent from my iPhone 8+ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Latest RAP has me getting 6 or 7"...I hope...lol. I know, I know, already had a tad over 10" then another 2-3" today, so who needs more? Well, this weather fanatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 5” is probably too high and I would shift this southeast a tad, but generally agree and am happy to see that LOT ended up hoisting the advisory after all. I think most of the public had no idea this was coming after yesterday. In general agree that 5" amounts probably won't be widespread though there's pretty good support on Kuchera maps to get 4-5" range. My forecast explicitly didn't have anything over 3.7" but I ran with 2-5" range in advisory text based off thinking that there's gonna be decent banding with this and higher ratio associated with that banding would help to get into 4-5" range wherever that sets up. Also our technical local advisory criteria is 3-5". Still think it's possible to get a swath of 5-6" somewhere in CWA if a persistent intense band does form. I'm personally pulling for to get ORD to 3.8"+ to bring total since Thursday evening to 12"+. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 ILX now calling for 0.20” of ice along and south of I-72Sent from my iPhone 8+ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 0z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 I'd like to know why RAP and HRRR shows upwards if 5-6" in our area, NOAA has a WWA but is forecasting 2". Just this morning us was for 4". Their map has 4". Just so confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z NAM... Haha that never gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 The Winter mess starting to get its act together tonight back in Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, DAWGNKITTEN said: I'd like to know why RAP and HRRR shows upwards if 5-6" in our area, NOAA has a WWA but is forecasting 2". Just this morning us was for 4". Their map has 4". Just so confused. If guidance tonight continues to forecast the heaviest snow for tomorrow to be near our area, I’m sure the NWS will increase amounts a little. I could see them going with 3-6 inches instead of the current 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, roardog said: If guidance tonight continues to forecast the heaviest snow for tomorrow to be near our area, I’m sure the NWS will increase amounts a little. I could see them going with 3-6 inches instead of the current 2-4. In the last 2 days they stayed on the low end of guidance, so just makes me want to say, why? South of 69 ended up giving me just over 10" and today was forecast for 1 and got 3. Not complaining, but just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Interesting tidbit from the NWS in Northern Indiana Area Forecast Discussion this evening: Model time/height sections continue to indicate unstable conditions in the 850-700 mb layer from 09Z-14Z across NE Indiana/NW Ohio which lends some concern given profiles supportive of mainly freezing rain during this period. Will continue to include tenth of an inch ice accumulations across these locations (although will have to monitor potential for convective elements with freezing rain ptype), with 2 to 5 inch snow accumulations across the far northwest (highest NW Indiana to SW Lower Michigan). Updated WSW will be sent shortly with these modifications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, DAWGNKITTEN said: In the last 2 days they stayed on the low end of guidance, so just makes me want to say, why? South of 69 ended up giving me just over 10" and today was forecast for 1 and got 3. Not complaining, but just wondering. They did just have an update saying they’re thinking 3-5 inches north of M-59 now. They changed the wording in the advisory to say 2-5 inches but that covers a large area including the southern areas that are expected to mix with or change to freezing rain and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, roardog said: They did just have an update saying they’re thinking 3-5 inches north of M-59 now. They changed the wording in the advisory to say 2-5 inches but that covers a large area including the southern areas that are expected to mix with or change to freezing rain and sleet. Okay, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 I'm at 10.3" after the scraps yesterday evening/this morning. If 3-5" additional happens, it will enter into my top 5 biggest storms (not including anything I've chased). I'm counting this as one storm even with the breaks being longer than I'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 First and final call for ORD 3.9". IMBY 5.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 The HRRR shows a decent amount of precip hitting the metro region tomorrow. Almost convective in nature. If the thermals play ball then it could get really interesting. Anyone south of i69-i94 could be in for a legit event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm at 10.3" after the scraps yesterday evening/this morning. If 3-5" additional happens, it will enter into my top 5 biggest storms (not including anything I've chased). I'm counting this as one storm even with the breaks being longer than I'd like. Think the metro is locked in for 4-7" with this one. I smell over-performance with a fairly rapidly developing system. Probably going to give guidance issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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