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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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Just now, Snowstorms said:

Great picture. I was actually about too, :lol:. As of yesterday YYZ is at ~32.6" (82.7cm). After this weekend we should be ~36.0" (>90cm), ahead of last year and 6.0-8.0" within average. Can't complain, we've had alot of frequent snow events despite nothing big. Took this picture the other day myself of downtown; 

image1.thumb.jpg.8a829a3f6a5d50cf010048ccbc8383e9.jpg

Nice pic! I like the graininess of the photo. Makes it look wintrier.

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7 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Agree. To be honest, this is turning into a good weekend for snow and tracking storms. It's been a good winter, overall. Snow Christmas Eve and Day, bitter cold around New Years leading to some amazing photo opportunities at Niagara falls, and now a fairly solid first half of February.

It's been fun to shovel so much...despite not having any big dawgs. And the long stretches of snow-pack have been nice to see too.

If we manage a 6"+ later in the month or in March, it'll be the cherry on top.

 

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The next wave looks butt ugly for the FWA area. The GFS profile looks good for some sl@#t, (although the map shows mostly zr), while 3km NAM soundings show a good chance of freezing rain (although map shows mostly s@#$t). Both models are only spitting out about 0.15" qpf, so anyway you slice it, things won't get out of hand, but just another slap in the face to those of us that ended up just south of the big dog.

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7 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Have a fresh inch down from the 2nd wave snow thus far.

Per radar, 3.0" seems unattainable as heaviest amounts ended up further north than modeled. Should make a run for 2.0". Wondering if this will have an impact on wave 3. 

I measured 1.3", practically the same. 

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5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Per radar, 3.0" seems unattainable as heaviest amounts ended up further north than modeled. Should make a run for 2.0". Wondering if this will have an impact on wave 3. 

I measured 1.3", practically the same. 

I don't see what you're seeing. We're in the main band of snow. There have been a few patches of 30 dbz to our north, but nothing substantial. And there's lots of returns upstream back in SE MI.

The snow won't cut off until evening and you think we'll get further amounts of less than an inch? OK. :mellow:

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2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I don't see what you're seeing. We're in the main band of snow. There have been a few patches of 30 dbz to our north, but nothing substantial. And there's lots of returns upstream back in SE MI.

The snow won't cut off until evening and you think we'll get further amounts of less than an inch? OK. :mellow:

Agreed. Latest HRRR is indicating the snow will continue until the evening hours (sometime between 7-10 pm).

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6 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I don't see what you're seeing. We're in the main band of snow. There have been a few patches of 30 dbz to our north, but nothing substantial. And there's lots of returns upstream back in SE MI.

The snow won't cut off until evening and you think we'll get further amounts of less than an inch? OK. :mellow:

I can totally picture Snowstorms getting a 27" storm and being upset that 29" fell 5 miles away.

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2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I thought for sure we'd see a slight SE shift and more thermal cooling, guess not, lol. As usual we get the short end of the stick when it comes to storms in our subforum <_<. Looks like at best we may see 2.0" before a change over to sleet and freezing rain. Areas north of 401 may see cold air hanging on a bit longer at 850. 

 

What were you expecting with all 3 waves? I always saw a weekend total of 8" as our ceiling based on NWP guidance. We seem on track for close to that. I don't think any wave ever showed much potential to hit over 4".

I personally prefer high snow rates and low visibilities, so this winter has been a bit of a downer for me, but I think it has been better than the last 2 winters. I'm not a lover of nickel and diming but the consistent snowfall has been a treat -- really makes everything look beautiful! What stings is that I was in Seattle during all the Christmas snow, so I feel a bit more snow starved than most. 

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Chicago

AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs


The main concern is the next round of accumulating snow arriving
late this evening and ending by around mid day Sunday. Did not
make huge changes to previous TAF, but did add some additional
detail. Forecast soundings indicate that saturation should be
fairly rapid this evening as forcing increases, so have moved
start time up an hour, and have concern it could be needed to be
moved up slightly more.

During the prime period for snow overnight into early Sunday,
soundings indicate a favorable overlap of strong lift in the snow
growth zone, which typically is supportive of at least moderate
snowfall rates of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour, sharply reduced
visibility of 1/2SM or less at times and IFR CIGS/VV. Potential
exists for snow to take on a banded nature, which adds some
uncertainty as to whether banding will be narrow enough to focus
worst impacts onto some terminals and not others. Have added a
TEMPO 3/4SM VSBY group for now between 8-9z to 12z Sunday. It
appears fairly likely that at least some of the terminals will
experience temporary visibility of 1/2SM or lower, but wanted to
give some time to assess trends.

Trends through Sunday morning are a bit uncertain as well, with
guidance mixed on how long low conditions with visibility under 2
miles will persist. An upper level disturbance digging in could
indeed prolong low conditions, but possibility is also there for a
quicker improvement. Left trends unchanged through Sunday morning
for now given lower confidence. Total snowfall accumulations
should be in the 2-5" range". The snow should be a fairly
dry/fluffier snow. Winds will be northerly 10 kt or less through
tonight, shifting to northwest to west-northwest 10 kt or less on
Sunday.

Castro

 

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 I guess Environment Canada thinks there's a good chance of freezing rain tomorrow.  I suspect it will be brief if anything  

1:41 PM EST Saturday 10 February 2018
Freezing rain warning in effect for:

Guelph - Erin - Southern Wellington County

Kitchener - Cambridge - Region of Waterloo

Freezing rain expected beginning Sunday morning and ending Sunday afternoon.

Another round of snow will develop overnight. Snow will mix with ice pellets and accumulate 2 to 5 cm Sunday morning before changing to freezing rain. Freezing rain will persist for several hours before changing back to light snow Sunday afternoon. Snow will end Sunday evening.

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We got a good 2.5 to 3 inches from last night's big flake bonanza in DSM. What was surprising is to see how much better snow stacks up in the housy neighborhoods than downtown where I live. There had to be some 9 inch lawns in town when I drove to do a volunteer thing. Models seem to be trending north with tonight's wave, getting DSM back in the action again.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
237 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018


ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-INZ001-002-110445-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0012.180211T0600Z-180211T1800Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-DeKalb-Kane-DuPage-Cook-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Kankakee-Livingston-Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Woodstock, Waukegan,
Oregon, Dixon, DeKalb, Aurora, Elgin, Wheaton, Chicago, Ottawa,
Oswego, Morris, Joliet, Kankakee, Pontiac, Gary, and Valparaiso
237 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Indiana and central, north
  central and northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
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3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I picked up a nice 3 inches last night from wave #2.  The liquid total is 0.19".  The heavy fgen band made it just far enough north to dump on us for a couple hours.  The line of counties just south of I-80 got trained by the yellow on radar.  7-8" is pretty impressive.

Nice to see that you guys got a nice snow after you got screwed by that first wave.

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