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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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42 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Snow already has redeveloped ahead of schedule. I have a good feeling about wave two. I'll bump my call to 2-4". This should help compensate for the mess that tomorrow is turning into. lol.

As long as we don't get plain rain on Sunday, I'm fine. I don't have anywhere to go, so if it does come to some freezing rain (I'd obviously I'd rather it didn't) it may to serve to protect our snowpack somewhat when the warm-up comes on Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Agree that wave two is looking good.

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24 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

As long as we don't get plain rain on Sunday, I'm fine. I don't have anywhere to go, so if it does come to some freezing rain (I'd obviously I'd rather it didn't) it may to serve to protect our snowpack somewhat when the warm-up comes on Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Agree that wave two is looking good.

0 chance of rain.

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Well, that was a bust.  I could have counted the flakes.  Anyone want to explain what happened withthe second wave?

Some short term models progged it to weaken. They were discounted. The models showing the rapid shearing out of the wave were correct.

Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk

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These models keep trying to push the idea that tomorrow will be sleet for the southern half of the metro area. I don't think I am buying that one, there hasn't been a transition zone with any of these waves, either snow or rain. Plus the warm "layer" these models are trying to represent is basically isothermal with the 0c line. It does however look more showery than previous waves, so could be quick hitting with near whiteout conditions and massive flakes. As for the northern half of the area, starting to look like 3-5" is looking good.

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27 minutes ago, McDude said:

Well, that was a bust.  I could have counted the flakes.  Anyone want to explain what happened withthe second wave?

Short term and hi-res guidance was further NW, and ended up being correct. Nice axis of 2-5" from south of DSM to near DVN to Woodstock, with slightly higher amounts in that axis in IA.

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2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Snow already has redeveloped ahead of schedule. I have a good feeling about wave two. I'll bump my call to 2-4". This should help compensate for the mess that tomorrow is turning into. lol.

I thought for sure we'd see a slight SE shift and more thermal cooling, guess not, lol. As usual we get the short end of the stick when it comes to storms in our subforum <_<. Looks like at best we may see 2.0" before a change over to sleet and freezing rain. Areas north of 401 may see cold air hanging on a bit longer at 850. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I thought for sure we'd see a slight SE shift and more thermal cooling, guess not, lol. As usual we get the short end of the stick when it comes to storms in our subforum <_<. Looks like at best we may see 2.0" before a change over to sleet and freezing rain. Areas north of 401 may see cold air hanging on a bit longer at 850. 

 

Enjoy wave 2.

Nowcast wave 3 when it arrives. Maybe we'll be in for a pleasant surprise.

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15 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Enjoy wave 2.

Nowcast wave 3 when it arrives. Maybe we'll be in for a pleasant surprise.

Heaviest amounts are now just north of Toronto per radar, lol. Should sink a bit south and fill in through-out the afternoon. 2.0-4.0" seems like a good target for today as you mentioned earlier. 

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1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

Heaviest amounts are now just north of Toronto per radar, lol. Should sink a bit south and fill in through-out the afternoon. 2.0-4.0" seems like a good target for today as you mentioned earlier. 

If there's something to complain about, you'll find it. Geez.

Step away from the computer and go for a Jeb walk.

 

IMG_1628[1].JPG

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7 minutes ago, ajl_from_Valpo said:

I woke up this morning, and suddenly someone could end up getting 6" totals from wave 3. We're in a pretty good spot here, so I'm hoping w can get death banded for a little while.

That heavier band should either run through us or perhaps just north.  Looks advisory worthy.  

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30 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Enjoy wave 2.

Nowcast wave 3 when it arrives. Maybe we'll be in for a pleasant surprise.

Agree. To be honest, this is turning into a good weekend for snow and tracking storms. It's been a good winter, overall. Snow Christmas Eve and Day, bitter cold around New Years leading to some amazing photo opportunities at Niagara falls, and now a fairly solid first half of February.

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13 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

If there's something to complain about, you'll find it. Geez.

Step away from the computer and go for a Jeb walk.

 

Great picture. I was actually about too, :lol:. As of yesterday YYZ is at ~32.6" (82.7cm). After this weekend we should be ~36.0" (>90cm), ahead of last year and 7.0-9.0" within average. Can't complain, we've had alot of frequent snow events despite nothing big. Took this picture the other day myself of downtown; 

image1.thumb.jpg.8a829a3f6a5d50cf010048ccbc8383e9.jpg

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