Snowstorms Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Overall, this is what I was expecting from wave one, perhaps even better. We've received about 2-3" I'd say. If we could end up with 2" per wave, I'd be happy. How's wave two looking? EC calling for 2". Depends what model you look at cause there all different. The latest NAM is just down right terrible for both waves and would be a disappointing storm if it were true. The latest RAP has a good widespread 2-4" tomorrow, as does the latest RGEM. This event is not within HRRR's range just yet. Wave 3 is still up for grabs. The latest RGEM has some WAA creeping in which would mean a change over to some freezing rain or sleet. Would be a bummer if that happened. Starting to lose optimism about this now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 RGEM has a better handle of the current state of things and is a bit southeast of the NAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 chicago NWS has some concerns about tonight this pattern shows little mercy to forecasters with subtle, low amplitude waves in close proximity to each other and to boot these low amplitude waves can challenge models at times. The next such wave is spreading east across IA and taking aim on our CWA later tonight into Sat morning. Regional radar imagery shows a large swath of snow, some of it quite formidable at this time. Shortwave trough responsible for this snow is backing the low/mid level flow and resulting in a strengthening f-gen band again. Like last night, guidance suggest this wave will shear out and weaken overnight into Saturday morning, however, it isn`t uncommon for models to weaken f-gen circulations too quickly and am concerned that the area of snow may be slower to dissipate than what guidance suggests. Planning to nudge QPF and pops up a bit overnight into Saturday morning, still planning to keep forecast snowfall in the 1-3" range, though if this wave and resultant f-gen is slower to weaken than progged wouldn`t be hard to envision seeing some heavier totals where banding features train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: RGEM has a better handle of the current state of things and is a bit southeast of the NAMs. Still has a thin layer of warmth at 850 for my area which creates a brutal cut-off. Looks like another SEMI special, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Just now, Snowstorms said: Still has a thin layer of warmth at 850 for my area which creates a brutal cut-off. Looks like another SEMI special, lol. Ride that horse until it dies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 02z RAP came in a bit juicier for the Iowa/northwest IL portion of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Finished with 6.2" total for the first event. Kinda screw hole potential with bigger totals in every other direction. Puts me over 25" for the winter total and over 12" since Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Storm has closed in here in DSM, Moderate snow now. I expect at least a 1-2 hours of decent snowfall before the band risks diving south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I'm liking the trends on radar. Might pick up about 1.5 to 2 inches of snow from this. Not snowing yet but it will be in 30 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Yea I'm getting optimistic over here. Something needs to happen quick to curb that, because radar definitely looks good out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Nice banding out in central Iowa. Ankeny and DSM down to 1/4 mile, with several other locations 1/2 to 3/4 mile. Looks like HRRR/RAP have a good handle on things. RGEM too far south for what's going on now. Osceola to Clinton/Maquoketa look good for 3-4", with the possibility of more if LSRs and heavier banding works out. Hawkeyeville should see some pretty nice snowfall before the main band settles a bit southeastward. Probably a good 2-3" there. Wouldn't be surprised to see that band hang up a little longer than modeled and dump even more on the CR area. Gonna stick with 2-3" for here/QC, but if that band does end up hanging up a bit we'll probably end up with more like 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Getting absolutely slammed right now and quite large flakes. A good inch or so so far if not more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Snow has just started a little while ago. Light at the moment but that will change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Nice banding out in central Iowa. Ankeny and DSM down to 1/4 mile, with several other locations 1/2 to 3/4 mile. Looks like HRRR/RAP have a good handle on things. RGEM too far south for what's going on now. Osceola to Clinton/Maquoketa look good for 3-4", with the possibility of more if LSRs and heavier banding works out. Hawkeyeville should see some pretty nice snowfall before the main band settles a bit southeastward. Probably a good 2-3" there. Wouldn't be surprised to see that band hang up a little longer than modeled and dump even more on the CR area. Gonna stick with 2-3" for here/QC, but if that band does end up hanging up a bit we'll probably end up with more like 1-2". Given how things are still progressing east through DSM, and have pushed down towards the IA/MO border, I'm leaning the HRRR is too far NW. You should be locked and loaded for a decent snow. EDIT: 3z HRRR actually has you in the main axis pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Very heavy snow falling. My guess is that it's falling at 2 inches an hour. Radar trends show us getting a nice few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Snow is coming down hard in Cedar Rapids. Unfortunately, this heavy stuff is expected to sag south of town fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Finished with 9.2" here today and now have about 14" on the ground. Buried here and loving it! Deep snow and snow mounds everywhere. Digging out was fun, did a lot of shoveling but had some snowblower help from a neighbor and my parents as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Buried. Solid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Ended up with 8.3" total here at my house, let's keep it going tomorrow and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Waldo, loves playing in the snow! Ended up with just a tad over 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Given how things are still progressing east through DSM, and have pushed down towards the IA/MO border, I'm leaning the HRRR is too far NW. You should be locked and loaded for a decent snow. EDIT: 3z HRRR actually has you in the main axis pretty much. Gonna be close but I'm gonna stick with the Osceola to Clinton/Maquoketa for the heaviest totals. The main swath of enhanced snow is moving pretty slowly southeastward. The stuff out ahead of that main band is 1.5-3 mile vis type snows. Think we'll get into that main band later on tonight, say after 3-5am, but I think it will spend the most time along that axis mentioned above. Still think we should be good for 2-3" here, and 3-4" with isolated higher amounts in that main axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Euro is in the RGEM/GFS camp with the next 2 waves, ends up dropping about 3-6" between now and Sunday evening with 1-2" tomorrow and 2-4" Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Just now, IthielZ said: Obligatory patio table shot Wow, what are you at, 10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Wow, it is absolutely pounding right now.... large flakes dumping, visibility down to maybe 1/8 mile, about as heavy as snow gets around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, Stebo said: Wow, what are you at, 10"? We got about 9.5, the table is a little deceiving because there was still a bit of snow on there from the last event that hadn't melted off. Probably more like a foot on there but I didn't measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Looks like 9.2" officially at DTW, easily adding to the record for the date. Still snowing albeit lightly here, no real accumulations happening however. Very nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: Wow, it is absolutely pounding right now.... large flakes dumping, visibility down to maybe 1/8 mile, about as heavy as snow gets around here. Yep, that band has made it to DVN! Huge fluffy flakes. Just a pounding right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 0.6" so far. Never really got into that main enhanced band before it weakened. Looks to snow for awhile, so hopefully we can tack on another inch or so. Tonight looks like another 1-2" possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Was in and out of snow all day yesterday, until the evening when we finally got a band to sit over us for a couple of hours. Pounded snow and things quickly went down hill. It was awesome. We've had at least some snow every day since last Saturday night, so wintry appeal has been high. Maybe another 1-2" tonight/overnight to cap things off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 This system def has a north bias. This upper level front must slope NE because that precip shield sharply curved NE right before IL. I haven't got any snow yet aside from a dusting. Hoping this last and final wave fairs better for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.