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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I buy it, our snow measurement I believe will be coming in this hour. I am betting we are near 9" here.

#snowmagnet:snowman:

I'll take whatever I get now. My expectations for big snowfalls have been lowered significantly after many disappointments :lol:

 

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Traffic is at a standstill. Eyeballing I'd say were closing in on 3.0" in Toronto. 4.0" seems attainable.

Overall, this is what I was expecting from wave one, perhaps even better. We've received about 2-3" I'd say. If we could end up with 2" per wave, I'd be happy. How's wave two looking? EC calling for 2".

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13 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

This f-gen band is something else. Just keeps going. Appears to be strengthening again now. Dropped 1” in 26 minutes earlier here. 

Sometimes out in Reno Nevada, you will have a forecast of 1-2 inches and youll get this small, regenerating cell that parks over the city and dumps 24 inches in 12 hours. Happens about once every 3-5 years. Then there's tahoe lake effect but that usually hits south in Carson.

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1 hour ago, GreenBo said:

12z-18z NAM drop a solid 2-4” on SMI-SeMI tomorrow. The 3rd wave isn’t as robust. 

According to NOAA, which didn't handle this one too good at all for us in Lapeer County, we are supposed to get less than an inch tomorrow and then around 2" on Sunday.  Would be nice to see another good banding event over top of us, but don't think that will happen. 

 

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14 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Sometimes out in Reno Nevada, you will have a forecast of 1-2 inches and youll get this small, regenerating cell that parks over the city and dumps 24 inches in 12 hours. Happens about once every 3-5 years. Then there's tahoe lake effect but that usually hits south in Carson.

Any proof? Not at all doubting you, but I think mesoscale features like this are interesting.

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13 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Sometimes out in Reno Nevada, you will have a forecast of 1-2 inches and youll get this small, regenerating cell that parks over the city and dumps 24 inches in 12 hours. Happens about once every 3-5 years. Then there's tahoe lake effect but that usually hits south in Carson.

That’s interesting. That’d be insane to be under. Kinda how I felt today, got lucky with a very intense, narrow band over me for several hours. The nws’s Forecast for me was 2-4” last night after being previously higher, but I’m at 6.6” right now. And the f-gen band will likely give me another 1-2 maybe even 3” 

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7 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Any proof? Not at all doubting you, but I think mesoscale features like this are interesting.

Last time I lived out there when this happened was in 2010 so sadly, no. It was maybe 20 miles wide and 30 miles long, a very small band. A massive snow with no warning. I was a NWS spotter at the time and I recall a bit of shock on the other end of the line when I stayed up all night reporting the increasing totals. The flakes were the size of silver dollars for hours and hours and hours. I also remember it happening in 1998, same 1-2 inch forecast, only this time the total was just 8-10 inches, I was 13 then

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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

Suspect there are more surprises coming with this set up.....just a hunch...

Me too. Not sure if CR will cash in, but there’s some nice banding out in NE right now. If that decides to train over anywhere, totals will rack up quickly. Probably 1.5” /hr under it. My guess for my area tonight is 1.5” total. Feel like there’s gonna be a 5-7” axis of snow somewhere along/south of I-80.

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1 hour ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Sometimes out in Reno Nevada, you will have a forecast of 1-2 inches and youll get this small, regenerating cell that parks over the city and dumps 24 inches in 12 hours. Happens about once every 3-5 years. Then there's tahoe lake effect but that usually hits south in Carson.

 

1 hour ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Last time I lived out there when this happened was in 2010 so sadly, no. It was maybe 20 miles wide and 30 miles long, a very small band. A massive snow with no warning. I was a NWS spotter at the time and I recall a bit of shock on the other end of the line when I stayed up all night reporting the increasing totals. The flakes were the size of silver dollars for hours and hours and hours. I also remember it happening in 1998, same 1-2 inch forecast, only this time the total was just 8-10 inches, I was 13 then

 

1 hour ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Here's a link to that storm http://www.ktvn.com/story/12019602/winter-storm-brings-record-snow

Reading it, I remember more snow than that that night, I was close to that airport but I was closer to the mountains than it so perhaps it was closer to 2 feet not just one. But memory does weird things

SPI had a similar event 12 years Sunday (2/11/2006).  Banded snow dumped 7-8 inches just in the city proper but almost nothing on either side of Springfield. 

Little did we know that was the start of an unforgettable weather year in Springfield and Central IL--this surprise dump occurred exactly one month and one day prior to the two EF2's on 3/12.

https://www.weather.gov/media/ilx/Research-Case_Studies/Feb11_2006_BandedSnow.pdf

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Here are IWX's reports of 12" or more as of 9:30:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
926 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WESTVILLE               41.54N 86.91W
02/09/2018  M16.0 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   PUBLIC           

0801 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 SW GRANGER            41.72N 86.15W
02/09/2018  M15.0 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   PUBLIC           

0550 PM     HEAVY SNOW       DOWAGIAC                41.98N 86.11W
02/09/2018  M15.0 INCH       CASS               MI   PUBLIC           

0851 PM     HEAVY SNOW       GRANGER                 41.74N 86.14W
02/09/2018  M14.5 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   PUBLIC           

0825 PM     HEAVY SNOW       COLDWATER               41.94N 85.00W
02/09/2018  M14.0 INCH       BRANCH             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER  

0804 PM     HEAVY SNOW       2 W CASSOPOLIS          41.91N 86.05W
02/09/2018  E14.0 INCH       CASS               MI   PUBLIC           

0632 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 NE OSCEOLA            41.68N 86.06W
02/09/2018  M14.0 INCH       ELKHART            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER  

0358 PM     HEAVY SNOW       BUCHANAN                41.83N 86.37W
02/09/2018  M12.5 INCH       BERRIEN            MI   BROADCAST MEDIA  

0630 PM     HEAVY SNOW       LONG LAKE               41.58N 85.03W
02/09/2018  M12.0 INCH       STEUBEN            IN   PUBLIC   
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2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Kinda wonder if the NAMs are too far northwest tonight, based off radar. Both look good for tomorrow night. Probably advisory worthy verbatim.

 

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Same concern here, I think they have the right idea but I would shift the whole pattern about 30-50 miles SE.

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Latest HRRRRRRR/RAP trends have the best band of snow tonight from around Osceola IA up through Iowa City, and towards Clinton.  Like others have mentioned this series of waves has had some surprises so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.  I'm liking a good 2-3" for here and the QC.  Wouldn't be surprised if we see a narrow band of 4-6" wherever this thing sets up.  Right now it looks like that will be northwest of the QC, but will have to watch trends.

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