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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Measured 5" at 1pm at home, it has been going to pound town for the last 3 hours, fully expecting close to 9-11" at home at this point.

I am on board with these observations as well. It is hammer time right now in Royal Oak.

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Just now, n1vek said:

I am on board with these observations as well. It is hammer time right now in Royal Oak.

Yep, down here at the airport we have been at moderate or heavy snow for a couple hours and we were at 5" a few hours ago, so we are probably close to 7-7.5" right now.

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LOT sort of "meh" on additional snow through Sunday..maybe thier burnt out. Need to get RC back in there with some fresh enthusiasm.:maprain: 
Our afternoon AFDs don't sound too meh. I think part of it is active immediate near term gets most focus. But anyway, of the remaining rounds of snow, tomorrow night into Sunday looks most robust. 2-4" appears reasonable, but possibly a case where a narrower band of higher totals occurs given that NAM is hitting it hard with banding potential.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

It should be pointed out that ratios were once again lower than expected.

 

MDW reported 6.8" of snow on 0.61" of liquid earlier, for an 11:1 ratio. Other similar reports as well in the area.

Only 1.2" since 9am?  That doesn't seem right given the intensity between 9am and 1pm

 

UPDATE:  looks like that was taken at 1156am so judging by other reports around Midway looks like Midway should be around 10" now.

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58 minutes ago, Toronto4 said:

Snow coming down at a good rate in downtown Toronto. King City and Exter radar look good for more snow in the next few hours.

Yeh. Moderate snow and good flake size. I'd estimate 2-2.5" down so far. If it weren't for everything speeding up per the models we'd be on our way to a positive bust for wave one.

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latest HRRR and GFS are taking a more southern track with tonight's wave, excluding Des Moines metro area and much of I-80 in IA from the best action. But the NAM has stayed pat with main band tunnelling through south central IA. Radar trends are looking pretty decent though, resembling more of a NAM northerly track as far as my eyes can tell. It's hard to say with this one models did trend a little south compared to 12 hours ago. Would hate to miss out entirely on this event between last night and this weekend.

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Picked up another inch this morning to bring the total for this first wave to 4.2".  I'm pretty happy with that.  it looked absolutely spectacular much of the morning with large flakes lazily floating down.  Snow had a much more convective look to it with rapidly changing intensities.  Have a good 7-8" on the ground now.  Up to 19.2" for the season, and have already had over 10" this month.  How quickly things can change.

Tonight's wave could deliver another 2-3".  Latest HRRR is pretty encouraging for the QCA, although it's been bouncing around all over the place lol.

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13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Picked up another inch this morning to bring the total for this first wave to 4.2".  I'm pretty happy with that.  it looked absolutely spectacular much of the morning with large flakes lazily floating down.  Snow had a much more convective look to it with rapidly changing intensities.  Have a good 7-8" on the ground now.  Up to 19.2" for the season, and have already had over 10" this month.  How quickly things can change.

Tonight's wave could deliver another 2-3".  Latest HRRR is pretty encouraging for the QCA, although it's been bouncing around all over the place lol.

Remember when I told you that a foot was a cinch for February? May do it tonight!

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6 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This system was a giant bust here.  I got 1.8 inches yesterday before the band lifted north.  It tried to fill back in late last night, but it mostly skipped over me.  If we got any additional snowfall, there's no way to know because big wind gusts messed everything up.  The snow boards I cleaned before going to bed were still clean this morning, and the board I left the 1.8 inches on only had 1 inch left this morning.  There are two reports near me that say 2.7 and 3.2", but I don't know where they are getting those numbers.  I have no choice but to record only 1.8 inches.  I melted down my gauge catch and got 0.18", so my ratio is only 10 to 1.  Now, after most models went more bullish last night with the next two waves, they are headed back southeast this morning.  The GFS, ICON, and UK now have little or nothing else falling here.  This system could end up being the biggest bust in years for me.

It's a little unnerving isn't it? Let's keep our hope invested in these current radar returns over Nebraska, and the trusty NAM. It is becoming obvious to me that the southerly GFS, HRRR are out to lunch with this radar situation going on now.

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1 minute ago, Chinook said:

One storm reports says 8.3" south of Detroit Metro Airport.

I’d suspect we will see a 10-12” report somewhere within the Warning area. The radar returns have been impressive over Wayne and Monroe for a good portion of the afternoon and evening. Still ongoing event at DTW. 

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