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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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8 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

I'm thinking:

Wave 1: 3"

Wave 2: 1-2"

Wave 3: 2-3"

I think we will be lucky to hit 8"

Taking these waves one at a time, I like what I see over lower MI. Main frontogenetic band seems to be taking form a little further north than models progged. I did have some worries for awhile of us getting whiffed. At least that's no longer on the table.

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For anyone interested, we collected this from a balloon launch at Valparaiso University a little less than 2 hours ago. It's hard to tell how much snow we have so far due to the deep snowpack we already had, but if I had to guess, I'd say we're between 5 and 6 inches. Hopefully we can cash in on this heavier band to our west.

skewt20180209.JPG

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1 minute ago, ajl_from_Valpo said:

For anyone interested, we collected this from a balloon launch at Valparaiso University a little less than 2 hours ago. It's hard to tell how much snow we have so far due to the heavy snowpack we already has, but if I had to guess, I'd say we're between 5 and 6 inches. Hopefully we can cash in on this heavier band to our west.

skewt20180209.JPG

Nice temp gradient from here to downstate.  I noticed VPZ is at 32.

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Have had heaviest rates of event recently in southeast/south central Naperville near DuPage/Will county line. Legit 1/8 mile vis +SN at times. With the banding focusing in this area today, should get into double digits soon.8b51c4dd1be129be148b1277ce17a2b6.jpg1a12e7117d182260669e9f4f87e355ea.jpg8d8c578ab1e39ab7ef21d02e4e9a3a0d.jpg

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Nice pics RC.

Overall I am satisfied with what has fallen and what is to come.  That southern gradient had me a little nervous.

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This system was a giant bust here.  I got 1.8 inches yesterday before the band lifted north.  It tried to fill back in late last night, but it mostly skipped over me.  If we got any additional snowfall, there's no way to know because big wind gusts messed everything up.  The snow boards I cleaned before going to bed were still clean this morning, and the board I left the 1.8 inches on only had 1 inch left this morning.  There are two reports near me that say 2.7 and 3.2", but I don't know where they are getting those numbers.  I have no choice but to record only 1.8 inches.  I melted down my gauge catch and got 0.18", so my ratio is only 10 to 1.  Now, after most models went more bullish last night with the next two waves, they are headed back southeast this morning.  The GFS, ICON, and UK now have little or nothing else falling here.  This system could end up being the biggest bust in years for me.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Nice pics RC.

Overall I am satisfied with what has fallen and what is to come.  That southern gradient had me a little nervous.

That southern gradient probably burned us a little here, although we never saw snow actually stop, so we may have barely escaped that. Also, we seem lined up well for another 3-5" this weekend. If we can get another couple inches from this heavy band moving in, I'll be satisfied.

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31 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Taking these waves one at a time, I like what I see over lower MI. Main frontogenetic band seems to be taking form a little further north than models progged. I did have some worries for awhile of us getting whiffed. At least that's no longer on the table.

How much do you think we will get tonight with Wave 1? Or you still sticking with your original call? 

 

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It's funny how things have worked out and how bad guidance has been.

Last night it looked all over with the main band shifting north and guidance coming in drier/north...Then things re-developed further south overnight with a rally...And now instead of things quickly ending his morning as guidance showed late yesterday, activity has slowed and the main axis is pounding the central metro area...which was shown a day ago.

Looks like a good portion of the area will end up with 5-9" with this first wave, with an area of higher amounts in the I-88/I-80 corridor from I-39 into the metro.

Tonight looks good for 1-3", locally higher where ever/if a main band develops.

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We ended up with 7" in good ole Prairie Du Chien Wi. so higher end of guidance from Euro and NAM did a great job here!  Glad to see the folks around Chicago doing good!!!!  For me this is the biggest snow the last two Winters for sure and our snow depth of 13" is the most I can recall since perhaps the GHD blizzard of 2011.  

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