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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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Now that the storm has started I am very excited. We had around 7" of snow on the ground when I took my "before the storm" pictures yesterday around 5:30 p.m. It was calm as can be when I went to bed and now snow is falling beautifully. Forecast is 6 to 9" today around 1" tomorrow and 1 to 3" Sunday. Gonna look freaking awesome around here Sunday afternoon.

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Last few runs of the HRRR and RAP are developing a band (about 0.30-0.50" QPF) later this morning thru the afternoon, that sits and rots from the northern parts of the ILX CWA on thru northern IN. Probably fool's gold, but would be some consolation snows for some of the people who have missed out thus far... 

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Maybe 5" out here. Based on radar maybe able to eek into warning criteria. Guessing plenty of school districts etc. not going to happy with the pre storm jump on closures. LOT should have rode thier first call when watch was issued for a 5-9 inch snowfall. Never really understood the jump to 8-14" yesterday, and it really was never explained. Based on results it seems the Euro was the winner in these parts, or the double digit totals are somewhere else in the Illinois/Wisconsin region. Onto the next....

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48 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Last few runs of the HRRR and RAP are developing a band (about 0.30-0.50" QPF) later this morning thru the afternoon, that sits and rots from the northern parts of the ILX CWA on thru northern IN. Probably fool's gold, but would be some consolation snows for some of the people who have missed out thus far... 

Yeah, I wonder how that’ll end up panning out. Could be some locally heavier totals as that band doesn’t look like it’ll move much (if it happens)

EDIT: Looks certainly possible given radar trends. Exact location is TBD but will be interesting 

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8 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Haha, good conservative call. I still think wave 3 will deliver a decent amount (3-7") under the right circumstances. A pretty strong jet streak and good moisture along the frontal boundary would probably help in creating deformation bands. 0z CMC looks pretty sweet too!

 

You think I'm being conservative? 6-8" weekend total seems in line with most guidance.

 

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14 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

We did lose out by receiving only 1 inch of snow between yesterday and this morning.

However models have jumped north and are in good agreement with tonight's wave and syggest 4-7 inches hitting us. Nice! 

Really? Don't see any AFD's that bullish this AM...

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9 minutes ago, Baum said:

Really? Don't see any AFD's that bullish this AM...

They're not. Theyre' calling for 1-2ish. And I don't blame them, as those models can shift. But the models for south central IA are all suddenly showing moderate snows in the 4-7 inch range for Des Moines tonight. Could those forecasts have been composed just as or before the 06Z and later runs?

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17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

3.2" here.  Late night/early band didn't do too bad.  

Yea, went to bed at about 1am here, right before the band moved in and woke up surprised that it was still sitting here at 5:30am. If it had been here all night, we would have easily hit 6'+ Gotta love forecasting for those small meso features.

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45 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

We did lose out by receiving only 1 inch of snow between yesterday and this morning.

However models have jumped north and are in good agreement with tonight's wave and syggest 4-7 inches hitting us. Nice! 

I don't see anything suggesting 4-7 tonight to me, but a decent 1"-3" chance both tonight and tomorrow night is certainly possible. 

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58 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

You think I'm being conservative? 6-8" weekend total seems in line with most guidance.

 

I agree with 6-8", must have misread your post, sorry! 

Latest HRRR is even wetter with today's wave. Has 3-4" in Toronto using 10:1 snow ratios. Even the RAP has 3-4". Let's see how that transpires. 

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1 minute ago, ams30721us said:

I don't see anything suggesting 4-7 tonight to me, but a decent 1"-3" chance both tonight and tomorrow night is certainly possible. 

I was using especially the 06z NAM, 06z RDPS, and the RAP at 21-30ish hours out and seeing the heavier amounts on it, but I am not familiar with other tools, soundings etc go into the forecasts

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Looks like a ballpark 5" as i took a little spin before loading up the sleds to hit the snowmobile trails.   We're going to try and make  a big loop down to the Illinois border and get back before sunset.   Blessed to have an incredible trail system right out of the city of MKE that leads in any direction and up to the UP if you want.

 

 

333.jpg

334.jpg

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5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

as someone watching from far away who has a few fb friends in the Chicago area who said a foot was predicted, I looked at the set up and was like....how are they gonna squeeze a foot out of this set up?" did any of you eclipse 6 inches with last nights wave?

Those setups give a foot many times. Go back further in the thread and see where examples were posted. Suspect somebody may hit a foot in Michigan. Set up was just a bit to transient for larger totals.

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I just measured 6.5 IMBY and honestly this storm needed a Winter Storm Warning and schools to be closed simply because of the timing of the snow. The street is snow covered and I'm in a somewhat rural area, no way for kids to get to bus stops or buses to easily get around. Do agree with the comments about not understanding the 8-14 NWS call, just doing the math on the timing of the snow would require 1 inch snowfalls the entire time and that was pretty clear around 7 PM that wasn't going to happen in N IL.

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Good to see the 12z NAM showing about 0.5” of liquid over much of Chicago metro over the next 48 hours. Of course some of this has already fallen (since 6 am this morning)...but even 0.3” at 13:1 ratios means up to 4” of additional snow through the weekend. 

Picked up about 6” here with wave 1, now 10” on the ground. 

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