GreenBo Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Getting hammered here in the City of Detroit. Flake size hasn’t been an issue under these heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Now that the storm has started I am very excited. We had around 7" of snow on the ground when I took my "before the storm" pictures yesterday around 5:30 p.m. It was calm as can be when I went to bed and now snow is falling beautifully. Forecast is 6 to 9" today around 1" tomorrow and 1 to 3" Sunday. Gonna look freaking awesome around here Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Last few runs of the HRRR and RAP are developing a band (about 0.30-0.50" QPF) later this morning thru the afternoon, that sits and rots from the northern parts of the ILX CWA on thru northern IN. Probably fool's gold, but would be some consolation snows for some of the people who have missed out thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Maybe 5" out here. Based on radar maybe able to eek into warning criteria. Guessing plenty of school districts etc. not going to happy with the pre storm jump on closures. LOT should have rode thier first call when watch was issued for a 5-9 inch snowfall. Never really understood the jump to 8-14" yesterday, and it really was never explained. Based on results it seems the Euro was the winner in these parts, or the double digit totals are somewhere else in the Illinois/Wisconsin region. Onto the next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 48 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Last few runs of the HRRR and RAP are developing a band (about 0.30-0.50" QPF) later this morning thru the afternoon, that sits and rots from the northern parts of the ILX CWA on thru northern IN. Probably fool's gold, but would be some consolation snows for some of the people who have missed out thus far... Yeah, I wonder how that’ll end up panning out. Could be some locally heavier totals as that band doesn’t look like it’ll move much (if it happens) EDIT: Looks certainly possible given radar trends. Exact location is TBD but will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 8 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Haha, good conservative call. I still think wave 3 will deliver a decent amount (3-7") under the right circumstances. A pretty strong jet streak and good moisture along the frontal boundary would probably help in creating deformation bands. 0z CMC looks pretty sweet too! You think I'm being conservative? 6-8" weekend total seems in line with most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 We did lose out by receiving only 1 inch of snow between yesterday and this morning. However models have jumped north and are in good agreement with tonight's wave and syggest 4-7 inches hitting us. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Wow very impressed with this mornings snow. Really interested in what the current snow ratios are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Wow very impressed with this mornings snow. Really interested in what the current snow ratios are Very glad you guys got slammed over there you were so overdue this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: We did lose out by receiving only 1 inch of snow between yesterday and this morning. However models have jumped north and are in good agreement with tonight's wave and syggest 4-7 inches hitting us. Nice! Really? Don't see any AFD's that bullish this AM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, Baum said: Really? Don't see any AFD's that bullish this AM... They're not. Theyre' calling for 1-2ish. And I don't blame them, as those models can shift. But the models for south central IA are all suddenly showing moderate snows in the 4-7 inch range for Des Moines tonight. Could those forecasts have been composed just as or before the 06Z and later runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3.2" here. Late night/early band didn't do too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 3.2" here. Late night/early band didn't do too bad. Yeah, it was definitely pound town for awhile late overnight/early this morning. Would have been amazing had we been under that band all night, as the models had shown. Might still just squeak into warning totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Very glad you guys got slammed over there you were so overdue this yearFor a storm yes, but we’ve had a ton of small events throughout the season. 20° temps are really helping these ratios on the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 3.2" here. Late night/early band didn't do too bad. Yea, went to bed at about 1am here, right before the band moved in and woke up surprised that it was still sitting here at 5:30am. If it had been here all night, we would have easily hit 6'+ Gotta love forecasting for those small meso features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 45 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: We did lose out by receiving only 1 inch of snow between yesterday and this morning. However models have jumped north and are in good agreement with tonight's wave and syggest 4-7 inches hitting us. Nice! I don't see anything suggesting 4-7 tonight to me, but a decent 1"-3" chance both tonight and tomorrow night is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Looking at the radar, it appears the band will not completely lift out of Northern Indiana and NW Ohio. The HRRR has been on wavering so much of the past few runs, it's enough to drive you nuts. Any thoughts on the dry air punching into Southern MI?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 58 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: You think I'm being conservative? 6-8" weekend total seems in line with most guidance. I agree with 6-8", must have misread your post, sorry! Latest HRRR is even wetter with today's wave. Has 3-4" in Toronto using 10:1 snow ratios. Even the RAP has 3-4". Let's see how that transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, ams30721us said: I don't see anything suggesting 4-7 tonight to me, but a decent 1"-3" chance both tonight and tomorrow night is certainly possible. I was using especially the 06z NAM, 06z RDPS, and the RAP at 21-30ish hours out and seeing the heavier amounts on it, but I am not familiar with other tools, soundings etc go into the forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Was sitting at 5.5” as of 6:30.ORD was up to 4.6” as of 6.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Looks like a ballpark 5" as i took a little spin before loading up the sleds to hit the snowmobile trails. We're going to try and make a big loop down to the Illinois border and get back before sunset. Blessed to have an incredible trail system right out of the city of MKE that leads in any direction and up to the UP if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Was sitting at 5.5” as of 6:30. ORD was up to 4.6” as of 6. . One final burst here...maybe I can make a run at 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 as someone watching from far away who has a few fb friends in the Chicago area who said a foot was predicted, I looked at the set up and was like....how are they gonna squeeze a foot out of this set up?" did any of you eclipse 6 inches with last nights wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: as someone watching from far away who has a few fb friends in the Chicago area who said a foot was predicted, I looked at the set up and was like....how are they gonna squeeze a foot out of this set up?" did any of you eclipse 6 inches with last nights wave? Those setups give a foot many times. Go back further in the thread and see where examples were posted. Suspect somebody may hit a foot in Michigan. Set up was just a bit to transient for larger totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 This HRRR has to be out to lunch. The thing has fluctuated like crazy on the southern edge. Can trust the thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I just measured 6.5 IMBY and honestly this storm needed a Winter Storm Warning and schools to be closed simply because of the timing of the snow. The street is snow covered and I'm in a somewhat rural area, no way for kids to get to bus stops or buses to easily get around. Do agree with the comments about not understanding the 8-14 NWS call, just doing the math on the timing of the snow would require 1 inch snowfalls the entire time and that was pretty clear around 7 PM that wasn't going to happen in N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Good to see the 12z NAM showing about 0.5” of liquid over much of Chicago metro over the next 48 hours. Of course some of this has already fallen (since 6 am this morning)...but even 0.3” at 13:1 ratios means up to 4” of additional snow through the weekend. Picked up about 6” here with wave 1, now 10” on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 HRRR has ~0.6” of liquid for London with today’s wave. Given ratios, I think 6-10” is reasonable downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 couple more. Good luck to you all in the next two rounds.. snow started back up with some lake stuff over my hood. visibility really dropped and just pounding for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cutlew Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 long time reader first time posting, live between downtown Chicago and MDW, measured 6" around 730 am after having only about 1-1.5" at midnight. Still coming down decently. Think we should get enough this morning to hit 8" and just barely make it to the 8-14" forecast range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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