Benadrill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Oh Stebo, you are not setting a good example with that post. You know that what's going on aloft is very important with ratios. lil bit melodramatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Nothing spectacular falling ATM by any means but it sure is appreciated to not have to stare at saw dust falling for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toddrix1977 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Hi Y'all, I've been lurking for years. Don't know why it's taken so long to comment. A little background, I have a degree in Met, but life took me in a different direction, blah blah blah. I live in the N. side of Chicago, so you have some geographic prospective. Snow finally hit a moderate clip, that makes me happy. At this point, I usually stop looking at the models (except maybe the HRRR) and stick to nowcasting. Ratios have finally stepped up after a pixie dust situation. My biggest concern for double digit #s is what is going on in Iowa and the very sharp cutoff. It looks like based on trajectory, the best hit might be slightly N. of Chicago. I'm not going to freak out yet, although I have a tendency to do that early on in a storm. My hope is, and models have been saying this all along, is that lake influence will intensify the band and bring the coverage in Cook county a little southward. Not the greatest lake enhancement scenario, but I've seen it happen dozens of times. What the heck happened to Alek btw?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 25 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: That third wave has a real nice tap of guif moisture. But as per the seasonal trends, everything simply shears to the east. No amplification allowed. I'm going to lower my call with wave 1 to 2-4". Then ~2" for each of the next two waves. Nothing memorable. Snow pack thickening and stat padding is all she wrote. Haha, good conservative call. I still think wave 3 will deliver a decent amount (3-7") under the right circumstances. A pretty strong jet streak and good moisture along the frontal boundary would probably help in creating deformation bands. 0z CMC looks pretty sweet too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Mesoscale Discussion 0061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0907 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2018 Areas affected...Portions of IA...southern WI...and northern IL Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 090307Z - 090900Z SUMMARY...A narrow band of moderate to heavy snow will likely produce snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour through the early morning. DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude shortwave trough present over NE/KS will move eastward across the Upper Midwest overnight. Large-scale lift ahead of this trough has promoted a broad area of light to moderate snow extending from eastern SD to southern WI/northern IL. A strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across southern IA is focusing a low-level baroclinic zone across central IA as of 03Z. Related frontogenetic forcing should remain centered around 850 mb, and a narrow west-to-east oriented band of moderate to heavy snow has recently developed across central IA on the nose of the low-level jet. Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour in this band will likely occur through the remainder of the evening and continue through the overnight hours. As the shortwave trough develops eastward, the moderate to heavy snow band will shift eastward into southern WI and northern IL (including the Chicago metro), mainly after 05Z. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indeedinger Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3.0" here at 10pm. Heaviest snow of the year currently - pouring medium sized flakes. Would guess 1" per hour+ rate ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Only 1.8 inches here in CR before the snow lifted north. It should be dry for several hours, with a bit more snow falling as the tail sweeps through. Definitely a bust given the earlier potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 0z nam brings that second wave in, in a weird fashion. Like all these random thin bands. Whereas GFS is a more expansive area of snow. GFS has been pretty consistent with the 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 MPS & CPS both closed. That don't happen often I can't imagine. LES like fluff - Yuck - good for stat padding i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Went from really optimistic earlier, to concerned now. HRRR has been hitting the northward shift very well, and it still looks like there room for it to go even a bit further north. Could very well end up with a lull overnight, with highest totals around the IL/WI border and far S. WI looking more likely now. A large chunk of the WSW/WWA will likely bust across the DSM-DVN-LO CWA, with amounts north in S. WI now looking underdone. Seasonal trends ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Little concerned by the tweets of a local Toledo met talking about how this will be a forgettable and underwhelming storm, with slow rates during the morning and low winds helping keep roads passable at least. A bit too cavalier for what’s 8-12” in 12 hours essentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Yeah thankfully I had enough buffer for the north bias of these WAA or else it would have been a Saukville special for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Lol, what a bust. Should be downgraded to a WWA at this point. Looks like king Euro nailed another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Yikes at how every school in the area is cancelled and we’ll likely wake up with clear roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I mean (trying to stay positive here) depending on the location, I'd wait at least a little longer to call it a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Went from really optimistic earlier, to concerned now. HRRR has been hitting the northward shift very well, and it still looks like there room for it to go even a bit further north. Could very well end up with a lull overnight, with highest totals around the IL/WI border and far S. WI looking more likely now. A large chunk of the WSW/WWA will likely bust across the DSM-DVN-LO CWA, with amounts north in S. WI now looking underdone. Seasonal trends ftl. I was noticing that as well. May struggle to earning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajl_from_Valpo Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I'm seeing some spots of darker blue pop up in southeastern Iowa on the national radar: http://www.weather.gov/Radar It doesn't look like much at all right now, but it could maybe help us out in the Chicago metro area in a few hours if it develops into something solid. Even if it were to stay as light to moderate snow, it would keep us from going into a total lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, cmillzz said: Lol, what a bust. Should be downgraded to a WWA at this point. Looks like king Euro nailed another one. Euro has been more like a court jester this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Is it me or is this way too far north? Something needs to happen soon or else Chicago is dry slotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, McDude said: Is it me or is this way too far north? Something needs to happen soon or else Chicago is dry slotted Yep. Writing is on the wall. Bust watch issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 26 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Yeah thankfully I had enough buffer for the north bias of these WAA or else it would have been a Saukville special for sure Well, I have to say I thought for sure this one would continue to trend south if anything, what with the existing snow cover, and being more of an overrunning event as opposed to cutters which are more prone to N/NW shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Just now, McDude said: Is it me or is this way too far north? Something needs to happen soon or else Chicago is dry slotted Yep starting to look more evident on radar that this is further north than what models earlier today were showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: Well, I have to say I thought for sure this one would continue to trend south if anything, what with the existing snow cover, and being more of an overrunning event as opposed to cutters which are more prone to N/NW shifts. what's a cutter? these overrunning situatons always scare me being on the south end. A many of times those Palms in Saukville captured downs Souths forcasted heavier snows. snowing for 2 hrs and not much to show for it. Just south in racine looked to do well by the news crew feed down there. Better flake size but very few falling now. now we wait for the hopeful heavier stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 So at this point how likely is the dry-slotting to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Nice looking band through Madtown and much of southern WI. Everyone’s so quick to write this off... I still think we see some additional development as this progresses east and more moisture gets involved. Trends aren’t great right now, but models can’t be THAT far off... or could they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I feel as if the slot is filling back in. The thing is North, for sure, but I'm banking on southern development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Strong WAA loves to overperform whether it's a cutter, or these WAA wing type events. GFS has been pretty good this winter, but it was downright awful with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, UMB WX said: what's a cutter? these overrunning situatons always scare me being on the south end. A many of times those Palms in Saukville captured downs Souths forcasted heavier snows. snowing for 2 hrs and not much to show for it. Just south in racine looked to do well by the news crew feed down there. Better flake size but very few falling now. now we wait for the hopeful heavier stuff. A more general term for a panhandle hook, any SW origin storm that cuts north of east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, tuanis said: Nice looking band through Madtown and much of southern WI. Everyone’s so quick to write this off... I still think we see some additional development as this progresses east and more moisture gets involved. Trends aren’t great right now, but models can’t be THAT far off... or could they? I wouldn’t write off limping to 6”, but if you were hoping for double digits (as I think we all were), you can kiss that goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, tuanis said: Nice looking band through Madtown and much of southern WI. Everyone’s so quick to write this off... I still think we see some additional development as this progresses east and more moisture gets involved. Trends aren’t great right now, but models can’t be THAT far off... or could they? Northern tier of IL counties are still in fine shape. Like I mentioned a few nights ago, these WAA wing events love the WI/IL border for some strange reason. Good chance you get 10"+ tonight/early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.