Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Agree, the energy moving in from the west is slower stronger and less flat this run. I don't think the NAM is properly handling the energies. We should have partial sampling tonight and full sampling by tomorrow night which includes the piece of the PV lobe that drops down into Manitoba on Sunday. Maybe that'll clear things up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Thinking the northern sections of SE Michigan might get more snow than expected. As per NAM and RAP/HRRR seem to share the wealth as the system moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Just now, DAFF said: Thinking the northern sections of SE Michigan might get more snow than expected. If the NAM3km is right, which it has not wavered a single inch here, they will need to expand the warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I'm definitely still all in on 10"+ tonight/early tomorrow in that area where the main band sets up. 0.50"-0.70" of precip with great ratios of well over 15:1 should get the job done. Heck we saw less amounts of precip on Monday produce nearly 10" south of the QC. This setup has more moisture, and stronger forcing, and even has some convective potential. Someone's gonna get a foot by mid morning tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1.0" here thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: Early, and I mean very early, evidence of southward sag of the main band to our west. It, and the NWS forecasts are all the hope I have. And I'm normally not one to severely question their forecasts except this time where those model runs are so out of agreement with the forecast. It's not just one office either, DVN is also thinking the main band sags south of 20, but there's no model support for that, so I am very skeptical. I'm also at 3" on the event now as the southest sagging end of the main heavy band has been parked over me for the past few hours. I don't think this continues the rest of the night though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: It's not just one office either, DVN is also thinking the main band sags south of 20, but there's no model support for that, so I am very skeptical, Check the Omaha radar loop, which is what I am looking at and am beginning to see those signs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Run total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Snow has shut off here, with 1.2" so far. There's some freezing drizzle falling. Original call for here/QC was 2-4", but I expected the late night/Friday morning to add a few inches. That has trended downward to very little now, so I think I'm gonna go with 2-3" here, and 1-2" for the QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Wave number two looks promising for here, although it'll be very late tomorrow. Got around 2 to 2.5 inches of snow. Might pick up an additional inch of two before wave one ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Peeked out the window and flake size looks decent enough with 20 dbz returns overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Very light snow started. Looks like we have a 10 hr window - Really need 4" and closer to 6" to have enough for the snowmobile trails to hold up some over the weekend. 2nd time in 3 yrs they'll open up. Worst Climo. Good luck all. Wish the timing was better to keep the thread active.. Can't wait to see the totals MI. can pull of when its all said and done over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Run total THAT's what I call a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Natester said: Wave number two looks promising for here, although it'll be very late tomorrow. Got around 2 to 2.5 inches of snow. Might pick up an additional inch of two before wave one ends. Yeah I'm hopeful our areas can get a nice 2-3" out of that wave. Been spending so much time on looking at tonight's wave I keep forgetting about that one lol. Almost seems like two separate systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Izzi’s A man of his words. Updated warning text below: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 832 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 ILZ013-014-019>022-INZ001-002-091045- /O.EXT.KLOT.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180209T1800Z/ DuPage-Cook-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Lake IN-Porter- Including the cities of Wheaton, Chicago, Ottawa, Oswego, Morris, Joliet, Gary, and Valparaiso 832 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow, heave at times occurring. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Friday. Additional snow accumulations of 7 to 12 inches, with localized amounts up to 14 inches expected. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Indiana and north central and northeast Illinois. * WHEN...Until noon CST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions are occurring. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Honestly, I may just be overreacting, but right now the latest model runs don't look that great for Dupage out of wave one. At least not the same totals predicted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Honestly, I may just be overreacting, but right now the latest model runs don't look that great for Dupage out of wave one. At least not the same totals predicted earlier. Calm. Down. Your posts are basically bipolar. Enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Calm. Down. Your posts are basically bipolar. Enjoy the snow. I'm trying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: Izzi’s A man of his words. Updated warning text below: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 832 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 ILZ013-014-019>022-INZ001-002-091045- /O.EXT.KLOT.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180209T1800Z/ DuPage-Cook-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Lake IN-Porter- Including the cities of Wheaton, Chicago, Ottawa, Oswego, Morris, Joliet, Gary, and Valparaiso 832 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow, heave at times occurring. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Friday. Additional snow accumulations of 7 to 12 $$ Forecast amounts remain the same. He just made sure to put his stamp on it in the AFD...per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 GFS looking good. The next 12 hours should be a fun time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Bout an inch so far, radar returns looking pretty tasty to the west. I still like where I sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I am thinking this might overperform on ratios for a while here, it is only 12 right now... A lot colder than I expected at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benadrill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Can someone make the snow drop south plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: GFS looking good. The next 12 hours should be a fun time. Any word on the Saturday wave? I'm greedy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 The 0z GFS albeit weaker than the NAM has a similar outcome for wave 2 and 3 for YYZ. Differences in the H5 are still very evident among both the runs which I hope will get resolved by tomorrow night. I believe once the issues are resolved, we'll probably get solutions that have better instability, but let's see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baum said: Any word on the Saturday wave? I'm greedy.... Looks like the Euro. Another coulpe inches Saturday and Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: I am thinking this might overperform on ratios for a while here, it is only 12 right now... A lot colder than I expected at this point. Oh Stebo, you are not setting a good example with that post. You know that what's going on aloft is very important with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Oh Stebo, you are not setting a good example with that post. You know that what's going on aloft is very important with ratios. Yes, which hasn't changed any and was highly favorable, which is why I said what I said, knowing the surface is adding a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: The 0z GFS albeit weaker than the NAM has a similar outcome for wave 2 and 3 for YYZ. Differences in the H5 are still very evident among both the runs which I hope will get resolved by tomorrow night. I believe once the issues are resolved, we'll probably get solutions that have better instability, but let's see! That third wave has a real nice tap of guif moisture. But as per the seasonal trends, everything simply shears to the east. No amplification allowed. I'm going to lower my call with wave 1 to 2-4". Then ~2" for each of the next two waves. Nothing memorable. Snow pack thickening and stat padding is all she wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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