cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Amazing to see so much difference between all the guidance with the event already beginning lol. Was ripping pretty good a little while ago. Vis probably dropped to about a half mile. Will enjoy it while it lasts, as it will lift north of here in the next few hours. HRRR looks pretty terrible for here points south. About 0.1" of precip here, and 0.07" for the QC. Gonna ride my call for 2-4" for here and the QC for now, but may have to lower it if trends for tomorrow continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Amazing to see so much difference between all the guidance with the event already beginning lol. Was ripping pretty good a little while ago. Vis probably dropped to about a half mile. Will enjoy it while it lasts, as it will lift north of here in the next few hours. HRRR looks pretty terrible for here points south. About 0.1" of precip here, and 0.07" for the QC. Gonna ride my call for 2-4" for here and the QC for now, but may have to lower it if trends for tomorrow continue. This is terrible given what models advertised 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Poor Tim is down there in IKK dealing with a really chilly rain at just 20 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, cyclone77 said: Poor Tim is down there in IKK dealing with a really chilly rain at just 20 degrees. IKK has always had precip detection issues. Not sure why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, ConvectiveIA said: This is terrible given what models advertised 2 days ago Its been the theme of the winter so far. It's crazy I've received so much digital snow from the models this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Central Illinois said: Its been the theme of the winter so far. It's crazy I've received so much digital snow from the models this year. We did get that solid 6 on Monday out here but I want MORE. How about the system defying all these models and digging a cool 50 miles further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Amazing to see so much difference between all the guidance with the event already beginning lol. Was ripping pretty good a little while ago. Vis probably dropped to about a half mile. Will enjoy it while it lasts, as it will lift north of here in the next few hours. HRRR looks pretty terrible for here points south. About 0.1" of precip here, and 0.07" for the QC. Gonna ride my call for 2-4" for here and the QC for now, but may have to lower it if trends for tomorrow continue. Bummer man he delivers...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Poor Tim is down there in IKK dealing with a really chilly rain at just 20 degrees. I was just outside and was actually surprised to see it snowing. Going to be fleeting, so I better soak it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I'm not quite sure if I'll get as much as forecast. My guess as to how much I'll get is about 5 inches. Got around 4 inches of snow this past Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I went 10-14" here in the first call and I think that is still a pretty reasonable guess for the entire duration. Could be some locally higher amounts here or close by. Current depth is right around 6", so could be one of the deeper depths I have personally witnessed especially if the higher end works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Flake size is the best it has been all season going into a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: I was just outside and was actually surprised to see it snowing. Going to be fleeting, so I better soak it up. Yeah I keep looking out the window and try to take it all in lol. Once the fully saturated column lifts north later this eve it will probably be just drizzle for much of the night. I'm okay with this eve's WAA snows being north, as that was expected, but I'm a little disappointed that the late tonight/tomorrow morning's snows look quite a bit less impressive. Luckily we have a few more waves coming tomorrow night through Sunday. BTW my 2-4" forecast for here/QC is only regarding tonight/tomorrow's activity. Haven't really even looked at the next waves too closely yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 18 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: Its been the theme of the winter so far. It's crazy I've received so much digital snow from the models this year. Blame the -EPO. It suppresses the STJ, aka no big storms, causes model chaos and not to forget all that severe cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I went 10-14" here in the first call and I think that is still a pretty reasonable guess for the entire duration. Could be some locally higher amounts here or close by. Current depth is right around 6", so could be one of the deeper depths I have personally witnessed especially if the higher end works out. I think ratios will be quite good wherever that heavy band sets up. Wouldn't be surprised to see 20:1 type ratios, with reports of 10+ inches by daybreak. My original call for the heaviest WAA band was from Dubuque/Bellevue towards Geosville/Buffalo Grove, but agree with Justin that anywhere between highway 20 and 30 are probably game for the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I think ratios will be quite good wherever that heavy band sets up. Wouldn't be surprised to see 20:1 type ratios, with reports of 10+ inches by daybreak. My original call for the heaviest WAA band was from Dubuque/Bellevue towards Geosville/Buffalo Grove, but agree with Justin that anywhere between highway 20 and 30 are probably game for the most. I'd say northern Linn, Jones thru Jackson counties is probably game for the best. CR is still scary close to that cutoff, but latest HRRR and radar trends suggest we may be okay. Although your call for hwy-20 was looking money earlier today. Still doesn't look like it's gonna be that far off. Whereas my call for the best snows to end up just south of Chicago didnt so so hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Without any local preference, I would say 10-15 inch lake streamer band will be the main feature by about midnight, oriented ENE-WSW through Chicago and curving more to E-W as it is shaped by frontal boundary wind inflow pattern. Possible resonant bands of 8-12 and 6-10 inches further north with lesser amounts in between. Will more or less double ORD's seasonal snowfall by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: I'd say northern Linn, Jones thru Jackson counties is probably game for the best. CR is still scary close to that cutoff, but latest HRRR and radar trends suggest we may be okay. Although your call for hwy-20 was looking money earlier today. Still doesn't look like it's gonna be that far off. Whereas my call for the best snows to end up just south of Chicago didnt so so hot Yeah there could be a very large contrast in amounts for Linn CO. Down near CID they may get an inch or less, with 10"+ up in Coggon. The snows out near the I-35 corridor are starting to become nicely enhanced. That looks to be the start of the better enhancement that will propagate eastward from there. Waterloo/Independence/Iowa Falls are gonna be cranking here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah I keep looking out the window and try to take it all in lol. Once the fully saturated column lifts north later this eve it will probably be just drizzle for much of the night. I'm okay with this eve's WAA snows being north, as that was expected, but I'm a little disappointed that the late tonight/tomorrow morning's snows look quite a bit less impressive. Luckily we have a few more waves coming tomorrow night through Sunday. BTW my 2-4" forecast for here/QC is only regarding tonight/tomorrow's activity. Haven't really even looked at the next waves too closely yet. After this little bout of snow tonight, we're probably done here in IKK until Saturday. Hopefully that produces something measurable...would be nice to freshen up the pack a bit. Anyways, good luck to you...hopefully you can find a way to make out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Blame the -EPO. It suppresses the STJ, aka no big storms, causes model chaos and not to forget all that severe cold! Stupid -EPO gave him one of his best winters he'll ever see (2013-14). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 And so it has begun...Good luck to all of you about to get buried and I wanna see some pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Don't know if anyone can answer this or not, but have a question from the gentleman I care for, he is a disabled vet. We are in Lapeer County, north western Lapeer. He wants to know if all the models are in agreement about snow fall rates and amounts, seeing as we are in the 2-4" range. Is there a chance it could wobble north more, or are we pretty good. (Personally I'd like to see a good 8-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Evening weather radar over the lower Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 24 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I think ratios will be quite good wherever that heavy band sets up. Wouldn't be surprised to see 20:1 type ratios, with reports of 10+ inches by daybreak. My original call for the heaviest WAA band was from Dubuque/Bellevue towards Geosville/Buffalo Grove, but agree with Justin that anywhere between highway 20 and 30 are probably game for the most. 20:1 would be sweet. Wish the timing was a bit different for this. Curious about how much I will wake up to. Thought ahead and parked the car all the way down the driveway (can't park in the street) just in case there's a lot. I have to be able to get out tomorrow morning and don't want to risk getting stuck in the driveway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Flake size started out really good. It's pooh now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Going to go with 4-6" here thru Monday. Could maybe go a touch higher if there's a surprise in store. Already some light snow falling here, closing in on the first half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I'm going with 6" for Toronto by Monday, maybe 8" if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Amazing cutoff along that southern edge (newest HRRR). Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 20 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Amazing cutoff along that southern edge (newest HRRR). Very impressive. We've seen several events this year with that sharp cutoff. 12/29 and last Mon/Tue most notably. No one seems to believe it without most guidance outside of the NAM showing it, but it's always a given in these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Amazing cutoff along that southern edge (newest HRRR). Very impressive. I thought the local mets were making a mistake in broad-brushing all of east-central Iowa with big totals. There was a good chance there'd be a sharp cutoff around here with much less snow south of the cutoff. I didn't think the row of counties through Iowa City needed a warning when most models had CR riding the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm going with 6" for Toronto by Monday, maybe 8" if we're lucky. The secondary and third wave punch the Nam, CMC and EURO advertise is key. Good moisture and baroclinic energy to work with to allow for some deformation bands to form and for the storm to strengthen as it moves north. I'd watch it closely, it might hopefully deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.