Stebo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 37 minutes ago, GreenBo said: DTX hoisted WSWs for Detroit on south. Makes sense given recent guidance. However I wouldn’t be shocked if the third tier counties get an upgrade during the night shift. The slightest wobble can bring warning snows further north. Anyhow, great hit for here in the city. Should be a fun day and evening. Also have Sat to watch out for. I would have included Oakland and Macomb in the warning personally, I think those areas get 6-9", especially south of M-59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Really get a better sense of the cutoff on zoomed in maps like this. 10 miles either way could make a big difference in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Sunshine peeking thru here. I think this area around Prairie Du Chien is looking at three to four inches unless a surprise happens. Atmosphere is in process of saturating even with good returns showing up on radar. Area between highway 20 and 30 looks great to me for some big totals. Post pics everyone!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 The ECMWF being drier than all other guidance gives be pause in going fully on-board, but it's hard not to with almost everything else showing 8-14" across the area, with locally higher amounts. Will we finally brush off seasonal trends of last minute shifts, weakening and bad flake size? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Flakes are good out here, not huge, but not pixie dust. Hopefully the HRRR/NAM arent on to something. Missing by 10 miles is 100000x worse than being missed by 100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Really get a better sense of the cutoff on zoomed in maps like this. 10 miles either way could make a big difference in this area.Bullseyes for me north of Joliet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Difference in the NAM vs GFS with the storm on our door step is unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The ECMWF being drier than all other guidance gives be pause in going fully on-board, but it's hard not to with almost everything else showing 8-14" across the area, with locally higher amounts. Will we finally brush off seasonal trends of last minute shifts, weakening and bad flake size? I'd say that's been the trend since 2/1-2/2/15. We shall see...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 24 minutes ago, Stebo said: I would have included Oakland and Macomb in the warning personally, I think those areas get 6-9", especially south of M-59. Unless they are seeing something we’re not. But, even the low range of guidance brings Warning criteria snows to a good chunk of the third tier counties. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Gil Sebenste thinks there may be t snow tonight in the Chicago metro. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, Indystorm said: Gil Sebenste thinks there may be t snow tonight in the Chicago metro. Enjoy! I have been seeing the same potential as well, good pocket of mid level lapse rates sliding east with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 In IL, I think it is safe to say those south of I-80 shouldn't have their hopes up for a huge storm but from there on north to the IL/WI border, the real unknown is this a 6 inch storm or 15 inch storm. All depends on your expectations if this "busts". At this rate, it's a snow-blowable school closing storm, just depends on how much disruption that extra 6-9 inches could bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 In IL, I think it is safe to say those south of I-80 shouldn't have their hopes up for a huge storm but from there on north to the IL/WI border, the real unknown is this a 6 inch storm or 15 inch storm. All depends on your expectations if this "busts". At this rate, it's a snow-blowable school closing storm, just depends on how much disruption that extra 6-9 inches could bring. Northern Illinois University already announced closed tomorrowSent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: 18z GFS I'd be shocked if the band ends up this far south, especially when looking at current radar upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Difference in the NAM vs GFS with the storm on our door step is unbelievable The I-88 corridor has been bullseyed for awhile now. Most other storms, we are talking about the great model agreement. Problem with this specific scenario is the extreme cutoff on the north and south end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I'd be shocked if the band ends up this far south, especially when looking at current radar upstream.I’d be a fan though lol. Just so dicey for metro Toledo which is literally split in half by this, one of my best friends who lives in Lambertville should see 8-12” while me here in Perrysburg could only be around 5-8”. Lol it’s a 22 minute drive and that probably will mean a 4-6” gap of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Not NWS bashing here, but LOT has the IKK zone with 3-7" total thru tomorrow...and with no advisory. Don't think I've seen that before. Granted there's uncertainty, and the county *could* have a big gradient from north to south if the snow makes it this far south, but still. Regardless, I don't think we'll even get to the low end of that range, so the point is probably moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Schools down here are already closing for tomorrow so tomorrow, which is surprising to me but whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 hours ago, tuanis said: I-88 corridor looks golden. We're only a few hours out now. Also, I really really hope that's actually your haircut. I laugh every single time I see it. Based on the new NAM, the upped amounts from LOT seem a bit beefy. They look great on the screen, time will tell if we see them in our yards. Trust me when I say that seeing ^ that after worrying for two hours made my heart jump. And Unfortunately, it's not my haircut, but I'm glad you approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Is the storm coming in a bit faster than expected? 18z GFZ seems to have shifted quite a bit to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Light snow has started in Dekalb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Light snow has started in Dekalb. Encouraging that flake size is good right away. Let’s see if it holds on for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 The hrrr is bumping the southern cutoff a little southward each run. Wouldn’t affect placement of the heavy band much, but it could atleast make us southern cutoff riders feel better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 And so it begins... -SN here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 We here are likely to be ripped off altogether by this storm. But that brutal cutoff is only 25 miles north of here. there is only a sliver of hope left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I've got about an inch already, been pretty steady moderate snow for about 2 hours or so now. Doesn't stop my nail biting though. That southern edge is still way too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: The hrrr is bumping the southern cutoff a little southward each run. Wouldn’t affect placement of the heavy band much, but it could atleast make us southern cutoff riders feel better lol The ese curve of the .5 area wasn't there on the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Underway in Woodstock.Nice to get home for first flakes after an early start day tripper for work to Wausau to GB and back.Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The ese curve of the .5 area wasn't there on the last run. The trend is south of I-80’s friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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