Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Here are the ARWs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 18z NAM a bit slower and further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Last hour's HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Yeah, the new NAM is definitely further up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: 18z NAM a bit slower and further north Yep, a bit north and juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Ugh this is gonna be such a nail biter. I'll lose it if we're on the screw side of that insane gradient. Although the current snow seems further south than where the HRRR has it, if that's worth anything, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: 12z Euro had 1-2" at best at YYZ with the first wave. The second wave drops about 6-8". Yikes. With lack of a true arctic high pressure to the north (there's actually an area of lower heights/troughiness around Hudson Bay) I though the 0z GFS/RGEM would be about as far south as the models would go. That thinking might be in trouble. Those ARW runs are hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajl_from_Valpo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 The 18z NAM looks god awful for anyone wanting some good snow south of I-80 (in the Chicago area anyway). I'm not liking that trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Ugh this is gonna be such a nail biter. I'll lose it if we're on the screw side of that insane gradient. Although the current snow seems further south than where the HRRR has it, if that's worth anything, I’ve been noticing the same thing. It’s not really adjusting run to run either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Man, this may sound selfish, but as long as i-88 gets its good snow I'm happy. If it goes farther than that this close action time I am going to die a little inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 They just dropped the winter storm watch for Lapeer County back to a Winter Weather Advisory for 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Man, this may sound selfish, but as long as i-88 gets its good snow I'm happy. If it goes farther than that this close action time I am going to die a little inside I-88 corridor looks golden. We're only a few hours out now. Also, I really really hope that's actually your haircut. I laugh every single time I see it. Based on the new NAM, the upped amounts from LOT seem a bit beefy. They look great on the screen, time will tell if we see them in our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 38 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Yikes. With lack of a true arctic high pressure to the north (there's actually an area of lower heights/troughiness around Hudson Bay) I though the 0z GFS/RGEM would be about as far south as the models would go. That thinking might be in trouble. Those ARW runs are hideous. I think wave 1 will be orientated more NNE as opposed to ENE given the strong jet-streak. I mean the 12z Euro as you can see below for Wave 1 has a sharp cut-off. Let's see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, tuanis said: I-88 corridor looks golden. We're only a few hours out now. Also, I really really hope that's actually your haircut. I laugh every single time I see it.Based on the new NAM, the upped amounts from LOT seem a bit beefy. They look great on the screen, time will tell if we see them in our yards. Perhaps...but as others have pointed out (which I generally agree with), LOT is probably banking on ratios. While it's certainly disappointing that the NAM has reduced its max QPF to about 1.00" for both waves instead of 1.25"+ from prior runs...even a relatively modest 0.80" of liquid would equate to 12" based on 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Perhaps...but as others have pointed out (which I generally agree with), LOT is probably banking on ratios. While it's certainly disappointing that the NAM has reduced its max QPF (down to about 1.00" for both waves instead of 1.25"+ from prior runs)...even a relatively modest 0.8" of liquid would equate to 12" based on 15:1 ratios. The totals LOT is mentioning are thru Friday evening. They don't include the other junk to rotate through on Saturday/Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, tuanis said: The totals LOT is mentioning are thru Friday evening. They don't include the other junk to rotate through on Saturday/Saturday night. That "junk" is starting to become more impressive. NAM 18z looking much more Euro-esque in its handling of the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajl_from_Valpo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, tuanis said: The totals LOT is mentioning are thru Friday evening. They don't include the other junk to rotate through on Saturday/Saturday night. This must be a snowfall ratio thing they're looking at then. It would definitely explain the bullish map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 DTX hoisted WSWs for Detroit on south. Makes sense given recent guidance. However I wouldn’t be shocked if the third tier counties get an upgrade during the night shift. The slightest wobble can bring warning snows further north. Anyhow, great hit for here in the city. Should be a fun day and evening. Also have Sat to watch out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: That "junk" is starting to become more impressive. NAM 18z looking much more Euro-esque in its handling of the 2nd wave. 100% agreed on the impressive junk. It's looking more and more like a 1-2 punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just a little historical note for Chicago. The 10th place storm on the all-time list is 14.8". I assume that everything that falls from tonight through the weekend should count as one storm since the breaks in snowfall won't be terribly long. It may be a little tough to get to that number but there's at least some possibility. Out of the 10 biggest snowstorms on record for Chicago, only 2 of them have occurred in February, and both were recent - 2011 and 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, tuanis said: The totals LOT is mentioning are thru Friday evening. They don't include the other junk to rotate through on Saturday/Saturday night. There are 2 different LOT maps out. The one showing 8-14" is through Friday. The other showing 12-18" is through Saturday 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Have the models stopped loading for anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Something to keep in mind... there will probably be worsening ratios with time near the southern end of the band as temps get near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Have the models stopped loading for anyone else? Yeah, NAM stuck at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, wegoweather said: There are 2 different LOT maps out. The one showing 8-14" is through Friday. The other showing 12-18" is through Saturday 6pm. Have not seen the 12-18'er. Seems confusing to have two different maps for two time periods out there, at least confusing to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, ajl_from_Valpo said: This must be a snowfall ratio thing they're looking at then. It would definitely explain the bullish map. 12z NAM on Pivotal is showing Kuchera ratios of 15-1 at onset (16-1 for part of the bullseye) and staying at or above 13-1 in the bullseye for the 1st wave duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, tuanis said: Have not seen the 12-18'er. Seems confusing to have two different maps for two time periods out there, at least confusing to the public. The 8-14 is their main graphic forecast. The 12-18 is a secondary graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 For Wave 1, MKE is mentioning 18:1 ratios Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 303 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018 .SHORT TERM... Tonight and Friday...Forecast Confidence is High... Light snow is falling across parts of Iowa along a baroclinic zone and strengthening upper jet. Returns showing up on radar in southwest WI are not hitting the ground, yet. Snow is expected to move into southwest WI around 6-7 pm. It will then spread across southern WI, pushing north of I-94 around 9 pm. Adjusted snowfall totals down a tad for counties not touching the Illinois state line, as those areas will be on the northern edge of the heaviest snowfall (down in Illinois). The greatest snowfall totals will be in far southern WI and across northern Illinois. This is where the strongest low level frontogenesis and warm air advection sets up. Lift is good with these features and the dendrite growth zone is up to 200mb. The majority of the snow will fall between midnight and 6 am. Tonight the low level jet will ramp up across Illinois, tightening up the baroclinic zone along the Wisconsin/Illinois state line, and providing strong warm air advection. Upper divergence increases after midnight as the right entrance region passes overhead. Snowfall rates could be around 1 inch per hour after midnight. The NAM continues to come in with aggressive precip amounts. Other models are pretty consistent with the axis of greatest precip across northern Illinois. Some lake enhancement is possible with northeast winds Friday morning, but an organized lake effect band is not expected. Delta T values are 13. Light snow will likely linger in eastern WI through Friday morning, and maybe into the afternoon along the lake. It looks like snow to liquid ratios will be around 18:1. This is a moderate consistency snow and winds may be just enough on Friday to create a little drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Made it home just in time for the snow to kick off here in DVN. Light to moderate snow currently, and decent flake size too! Should be a pretty evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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