tuanis Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 16 minutes ago, kevlon62 said: If it was the November 2015 Friday nighter you're referring to, you got that right. Let's rock that mojo again tonight. Edit: Maybe I'm forgetting the December 16 event. Either way, November 2015 was my first time hearing "death band." Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Yep that's it. Doesn't seem like it was that long ago - time flies! Would love to see it again. EDIT: RC the only tough part to buy into with that storm as an analog was that it was in November! Different air masses for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 ^ thats cyclones map. And I've seen it happen often. Still 3-5" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Euro a tad south and a tad wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Euro continues to be on the stronger and northwestern edge of guidance for Wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Euro a tad south and a tad wetter. Still seems stingy on precip compared to other models (through tomorrow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 So we'll only know how exactly the WAA snow will set up once it's actually happening, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajl_from_Valpo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Does anyone know what snowfall ratios are supposed to be during this? I heard 14:1 mentioned a few days ago, but things could've changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, Malacka11 said: So we'll only know how exactly the WAA snow will set up once it's actually happening, right? Pretty much. Just have a good general idea at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Pretty much. Just have a good general idea at this point. Right, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Still seems stingy on precip compared to other models.Some models dropped ever so slightly but nothing red flag worthy. Have to acknowledge a small chance it's correct with a drier look to the first wave, but I just don't see it still. Resigned to fact it's come in drier, so feel more important factor from this run was that it did shift axis of higher qpf slightly south. If indeed it is too dry, that can be sort of a proxy for where the best fgen banding is likely to occur. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Some models dropped ever so slightly but nothing red flag worthy. Have to acknowledge a small chance it's correct with a drier look to the first wave, but I just don't see it still. Resigned to fact it's come in drier, so feel more important factor from this run was that it did shift axis of higher qpf slightly south. If indeed it is too dry, that can be sort of a proxy for where the best fgen banding is likely to occur. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk IF the drier outcome ends up happening, then hopefully ratios would be better than expected to help compensate. From a sensible weather perspective, nobody would really care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 15 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Some models dropped ever so slightly but nothing red flag worthy. Have to acknowledge a small chance it's correct with a drier look to the first wave, but I just don't see it still. Resigned to fact it's come in drier, so feel more important factor from this run was that it did shift axis of higher qpf slightly south. If indeed it is too dry, that can be sort of a proxy for where the best fgen banding is likely to occur. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk What’s your professional opinion on where the southern cutoff will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 12z Euro... No real improvement over here. It has about 0.35" here, but it takes getting scraped by three waves to get it. I'm expecting the first wave to mostly miss north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 12z Euro had 1-2" at best at YYZ with the first wave. The second wave drops about 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 LOT upped warning amounts from 6-10 to 8-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Wow. Ballsy. 10-15" in Dupage County(20 miles west of Loop). Could have held status quo based on 12Z output and been safe. Will be interested to see the discussion. Once I get the "all systems go" from Chicago Storm I'll be headed out to the grocery store to stock up on essentials; booze. Also note, raised pops for Saturday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baum said: Wow. Ballsy. 10-15" in Dupage County(20 miles west of Loop). Could have held status quo based on 12Z output and been safe. Will be interested to see the discussion. Once I get the "all systems go" from Chicago Storm I'll be headed out to the grocery store to stock up on essentials; booze. Also note, raised pops for Saturday system. I'd be fine with that much but it seems, like you said, a little ballsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, Baum said: Wow. Ballsy. 10-15" in Dupage County(20 miles west of Loop). Could have held status quo based on 12Z output and been safe. Will be interested to see the discussion. Once I get the "all systems go" from Chicago Storm I'll be headed out to the grocery store to stock up on essentials; booze. Also note, raised pops for Saturday system. Indeed... pretty aggressive considering it's only the Thursday-Friday amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 19 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: LOT upped warning amounts from 6-10 to 8-14 Surprised they upped totals in light of waning QPF amounts. They must be banking on higher than forecast ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 The WRF "family" I will call it, came in pretty wet. So it's pretty obvious that LOT is leaning toward the wetter hi-res and global output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 P&C has 10-16" for my area. 8-12" for tonight alone, and 2-4" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I do love this updated map, but I'm not quite sure what they're seeing that we're not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, mimillman said: I do love this updated map, but I'm not quite sure what they're seeing that we're not... Hopefully we'll see within the next few hours. This upcoming discussion products will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 You know, this whole event is starting to feel a lot like the big February 1-2 storm a few years ago (2015 maybe?) Prolonged snowfall, upping the totals at the last minute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: I do love this updated map, but I'm not quite sure what they're seeing that we're not... Probably ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 SREF mean backed off of the ridiculous 9z totals, now a carbon copy of 21z. Looks like a mean of 7.9" by 00z Saturday and then 10.86" by 00z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, ajl_from_Valpo said: Just a wild guess, but I'm guessing they're seeing some pretty high snowfall ratios (15 or 16 to 1) with this. Or maybe they're purposefully overshooting with this. Either way, 8 inches into Jasper County seems a bit far... I don't believe in purposeful overshooting. That doesn't do anything for public confidence in future storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I would guess they are banking on above average ratios, and some absolute pounding snow from the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, ajl_from_Valpo said: Just a wild guess, but I'm guessing they're seeing some pretty high snowfall ratios (15 or 16 to 1) with this. Or maybe they're purposefully overshooting with this. Either way, 8 inches into Jasper County seems a bit far... What an absurd comment. They have a duty, and know they convey an important public safety message. Purposely overshooting would serve no purpose not have any benefit to anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 There’s already snow ~70 south than where the 18z nam has snow at hour 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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