RCNYILWX Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Precipitation is clearly reduced from 6z. Still solid, but definitely lowerFor the first wave, the front moves south slightly quicker, so there's a few hours shorter duration, resulting in slightly lower precip. Still a very significant hit. Most importantly, decidedly not a much drier trend toward the Euro. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: Can't disagree. 2-4" imo for now looks like a solid call for wave one. We'll have to see how wave 1 orients the heaviest bands for the entire duration. We'll likely have some decent ratios to work with in the beginning and we'll see how much confluence we can get for some deformation bands. Jet dynamics are fairly strong over our region so 6.0" is definitely possible. Edit: 12z Nam backs off quite a bit, now only has 1-3" with wave 1. Wave 2 is more key for our area which has the potential to drop 4.0-8.0" under the right circumstances. Lot of volatility right now. I wouldn't live or die with each run. NAM just regressing to the mean. In contrast, RGEM might have gone wetter though I'll need to see the accum maps first to be positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Lot of volatility right now. I wouldn't live or die with each run. NAM just regressing to the mean. In contrast, RGEM might have gone wetter though I'll need to see the accum maps first to be positive. Good point. The orientation of wave 1 and how the narrow band sets-up can be quite tough on models sometimes. RGEM between 6z and 12z was relatively the same and dropped 2-3" with wave 1. Still time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 GFS continues the drier 12z trend. I view this as just a correction to more reasonable precip. This is still 6+" for most of LOT. Happy with my 6-10" call for both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajl_from_Valpo Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I'm really curious to see what NWS Chicago does for Kankakee and the 2nd tier of counties in NW Indiana. Based on their snowfall map I'd expect a high end WWA or low end WSW, but their discussion seems to highlight the potential for anything, even no headlines at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 After trending south and wetter for us overnight, the 12z NAM and ICON both went back north and put us in the much drier area south of the heavy banding. I'm not feeling good about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Our storm now starting to expand into western Iowa on radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 CMC is the only model thus far in the 12z suite that looks wetter around these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, mimillman said: GFS continues the drier 12z trend. I view this as just a correction to more reasonable precip. This is still 6+" for most of LOT. Happy with my 6-10" call for both waves. Specifically, what's the change in overall qpf on the GFS from last nights 00Z run to today's 12Z run at ORD ending at 00Z Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, ajl_from_Valpo said: I'm really curious to see what NWS Chicago does for Kankakee and the 2nd tier of counties in NW Indiana. Based on their snowfall map I'd expect a high end WWA or low end WSW, but their discussion seems to highlight the potential for anything, even no headlines at all. I have no clue what to expect down here. I think it’ll be a nowcast scenario unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: I have no clue what to expect down here. I think it’ll be a nowcast scenario unfortunately I'd guess the initial WAA band will lift pretty quickly north of you and you'll go dry for awhile. Then as the storm progresses precip will develop further south (may be showery in nature at first?) and you'll be in the thick of it for awhile. I'd guess you'll do fine, but likely end up below the I-88/I-90 corridors in terms of totals. Tricky forecast for the coal fields down south lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Don’t think LOT will expand any headlines south of what they have currently. Really no need for an inch or two down here. Just hoping for that amount at this moment and time. And that’s pretty dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, Baum said: Specifically, what's the change in overall qpf on the GFS from last nights 00Z run to today's 12Z run at ORD ending at 00Z Saturday? Eyeballing, probably about 0.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, tuanis said: I'd guess the initial WAA band will lift pretty quickly north of you and you'll go dry for awhile. Then as the storm progresses precip will develop further south (may be showery in nature at first?) and you'll be in the thick of it for awhile. I'd guess you'll do fine, but likely end up below the I-88/I-90 corridors in terms of totals. Tricky forecast for the coal fields down south lol. Yeah I’m not expecting any 10-12” totals down here, but 6-8” would be nice. Also interested to see what happens with that second wave. But yeah people around here are unfortunately under the impression we were going to get more substantial totals like they are up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 That fork/snow hole is coming back on the 12z runs. The CR area is really riding the edge now. The HRRR is also gradually shifting north. I'd feel excellent if I were along hwy-20. Congrats to cyclone on that correct call though. Hopefully it sags back south 20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Eyeballing, probably about 0.2" Thanks. So 12Z around .80 total. I guess some lowering not unexpected. Still, well within LOT's 6-10 with local 12 inch amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: That fork/snow hole is coming back on the 12z runs. The CR area is really riding the edge now. The HRRR is also gradually shifting north. I'd feel excellent if I were along hwy-20. Congrats to cyclone on that correct call though. Hopefully it sags back south 20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, Baum said: Thanks. So 12Z around .80 total. I guess some lowering not unexpected. Still, well within LOT's 6-10 with local 12 inch amounts. Yeah, nothing that will significantly affect sensible forecasts. Still in line for a crippling amount of snow, and should the NAM moisture verify, a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yeah, nothing that will significantly affect sensible forecasts. Still in line for a crippling amount of snow, and should the NAM moisture verify, a lot more. Already told the office I'm working from home tomorrow. I anticipate school will be closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Sharp cutoff in northern Ohio expected by NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Getting excited! Not sure how much to expect, but with an 8-inch base already on the ground, the snow is going to be DEEP on Sunday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: For the first wave, the front moves south slightly quicker, so there's a few hours shorter duration, resulting in slightly lower precip. Still a very significant hit. Most importantly, decidedly not a much drier trend toward the Euro. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk The RAP and HRRR also lean more toward the wetter side through the end of their runs. You'd think we would be seeing another model with a Euro like run by now if it were going to materialize (talking amounts in the middle of the band of course and not a specific location as the gradient will play havoc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The RAP and HRRR also lean more toward the wetter side through the end of their runs. You'd think we would be seeing another model with a Euro like run by now if it were going to materialize (talking amounts in the middle of the band of course and not a specific location as the gradient will play havoc). Not only that, they are some of the wettest out of all of them out here. Over 9-10" in the heaviest band and still snowing. Would end up in the 11-13" range. But I think that is probably overdone quite a bit. My guess is that the heaviest totals will end up in the 7-9" range out here. 8-10" further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Not only that, they are some of the wettest out of all of them out here. Over 9-10" in the heaviest band and still snowing. Would end up in the 11-13" range. But I think that is probably overdone quite a bit. My guess is that the heaviest totals will end up in the 7-9" range out here. 8-10" further east. Never discount a death band's ability to pump out the fluff. I think there will be relatively narrow corridors that sit under that band when it really flexes its muscles that score over a foot. I remember a heavy duty WAA band during December 2016 that really produced over a couple counties over here. She was a beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 The HRDPS is wetter for the GTA with the first wave with amounts between 3-5". The UKMET also has between 2-4" with the first wave. Again nothing set in stone, just yet! We'll have to see what tonight's solutions show us. The orientation of the wave and how it interacts with the jet streak is key in determining how the storm progresses through the region. On a side note, YYZ has recorded 11 straight days of measurable snow including today. Not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Never discount a death band's ability to pump out the fluff. I think there will be relatively narrow corridors that sit under that band when it really flexes its muscles that score over a foot. I remember a heavy duty WAA band during December 2016 that really produced over a couple counties over here. She was a beaut. If it was the November 2015 Friday nighter you're referring to, you got that right. Let's rock that mojo again tonight. Edit: Maybe I'm forgetting the December 16 event. Either way, November 2015 was my first time hearing "death band." Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Never discount a death band's ability to pump out the fluff. I think there will be relatively narrow corridors that sit under that band when it really flexes its muscles that score over a foot. I remember a heavy duty WAA band during December 2016 that really produced over a couple counties over here. She was a beaut. Some other really good f-gen death band setups around here in recent years that remind me of this one are the beginning of the late November 2015 storm, which had 6-8" amounts along/north of I-90 before our WSW had been planned to kick in and New Year's Eve and Day 2014. That event in particular synoptically reminds me of this one, which had 15-18" amounts in Lake and northern Cook counties. The band should have more westward extent this time with the high totals than that one but otherwise not a bad analog. https://www.weather.gov/lot/21Nov2015snowfallhttps://www.weather.gov/lot/2014jan01 Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 49 minutes ago, Chinook said: Sharp cutoff in northern Ohio expected by NWS Cutoffs like these are EXTREMELY depressing. Will be lucky to get 1-2" here while 40-60mi north receives 8"+. Oh well, congrats to S MI and stateline folks! Hopefully the rest of this weekend can deliver, watching the potential for ice especially on Saturday as that mixing line looks to creep into NW OH during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Well this would be an interesting way to screw Chicago. Band sits north and then is progressive through the city before slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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