IceQueen706 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just a question, and I cant find the answer in all the posts, but as of now, given that partial and full sampling can't be done, how far into SE MI do the "higher" totals go? I am just north of I-69 about 70 miles north of DTX. Not asking for any totals at all, mind you, but between this formula and what I am reading in NOAA, they say 3". Just wondering what ya'll's takes are, if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 12z UK.... drastically cut back snow from Nebraska through Iowa. First wave trended north, second wave southeast, possible screw zone from Omaha to Iowa City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 5:24 PM, DAWGNKITTEN said: Just a question, and I cant find the answer in all the posts, but as of now, given that partial and full sampling can't be done, how far into SE MI do the "higher" totals go? I am just north of I-69 about 70 miles north of DTX. Not asking for any totals at all, mind you, but between this formula and what I am reading in NOAA, they say 3". Just wondering what ya'll's takes are, if you can. Expand At this point, the bottom 2 or 3 tiers of counties is where you want to be in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The thing about this storm, as currently modeled, is that it should show its hand early given that a lot rides on what happens with the fgen band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceQueen706 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 5:41 PM, Hoosier said: At this point, the bottom 2 or 3 tiers of counties is where you want to be in Michigan. Expand Thanks...looks like Lapeer is the 4th tier in the Thumb. I guess....lol. Thank you Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 mke with WSW 6-9" potential Seems bullish i would have for now stuck with the AM 3-5" AFD Could be right in the end - and tbh i dont mind being this far north ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 A couple models like the GEM and 3km NAM already have a stripe of 1" precip through 00z Sat. If that's the case, then higher end storm totals in excess of a foot and a half would certainly be reachable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Euro comes in south of 00z, though continues to be lower on the qpf than the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 6:08 PM, mimillman said: Euro comes in south of 00z, though continues to be lower on the qpf than the rest of guidance. Expand Same location through MI, but yes it is on the lower end of the scale with QPF, still a decent/good hit but not on the level of other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Never have been optimistic locally for this...someone will surely hit double digits, it's a very intriguing and prolonged setup. Locally, the UKMET has 1" of QPF for Cleveland and the other models have 6"+ only 50 miles to the north, so it's still within the margin of error...though at this point, I'm expecting nothing, would be thrilled wit a 2-4" type graze job, and will hope for magic like the UKMET I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 6:23 PM, Stebo said: Same location through MI, but yes it is on the lower end of the scale with QPF, still a decent/good hit but not on the level of other models. Expand It was on the last few waves too. As we know, the euro QPF was vastly underrepresented in the heavy band and also tracked said band too far north for the Monday event, so it may be too dry and too north here as well. I'd actually weigh on the GFS more here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 6:41 PM, NWLinnCountyIA said: It was on the last few waves too. As we know, the euro QPF was vastly underrepresented in the heavy band and also tracked said band too far north for the Monday event, so it may be too dry and too north here as well. I'd actually weigh on the GFS more here. Expand Given the “what have you done for me lately” model mentality, the GFS is the one to ride. NAM being a north outlier, with the Euro south and dryer than the consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 12z Euro... If the first wave misses just north like this, Cedar Rapids is in trouble. Southern Michigan has consistently been in the wave overlap region, but the models are gradually splitting the waves apart on the west edge of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajl_from_Valpo Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Seems like the 12Z Euro bumped south a slight bit, but keeps the slightly lower QPF. The 12z GFS didn't budge. In Valparaiso, IN, where there's a 8" difference in each 12z run, this is beyond stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 7:04 PM, hawkeye_wx said: 12z Euro... If the first wave misses just north like this, Cedar Rapids is in trouble. Southern Michigan has consistently been in the wave overlap region, but the models are gradually splitting the waves apart on the west edge of the forum. Expand Let's just say "I like where I sit" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 7:04 PM, hawkeye_wx said: 12z Euro... If the first wave misses just north like this, Cedar Rapids is in trouble. Southern Michigan has consistently been in the wave overlap region, but the models are gradually splitting the waves apart on the west edge of the forum. Expand So what's the median model snowfall output for Cedar Rapids between the GEM, NAM, GFS, and Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 18z NAM coming in hot, and slight nudge south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Upstream looks a little better too (the weekend). Gonna be a pretty big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 12-14 inches in Chicago at 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 8:24 PM, RJSnowLover said: 12-14 inches in Chicago at 48hrs. Expand Seriously? How likely is this to change still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Somebody is probably going to be 18+ this run, especially in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceQueen706 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Can anyone post maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 8:19 PM, Hoosier said: 18z NAM coming in hot, and slight nudge south. Expand White hot. Not seeing that southern nudge, though. Pretty sharp cutoff along I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 8:30 PM, Hoosier said: Somebody is probably going to be 18+ this run, especially in northern IL. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 8:19 PM, Hoosier said: 18z NAM coming in hot, and slight nudge south. Expand I-80 and I-94 tug-o-war going to ensue with this one..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 8:30 PM, Hoosier said: Somebody is probably going to be 18+ this run, especially in northern IL. Expand Corrected itself back closer to the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 LOT's current thinking through 6pm Friday. Must've been updated in the last hour since it was showing 6-8 for metro earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Wishing I was back in Northbrook and not in Champaign rn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 End of the run. Total crush job for N. IL, with the second wave ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 8:36 PM, tuanis said: White hot. Not seeing that southern nudge, though. Pretty sharp cutoff along I-80. Expand Yea I'm not seeing a south jog. If anything it went more north. I think I'm out of the game for this 1st wave but 2nd wave looks to be south of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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