Baum Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Tend to agree these things have a tendency to float north plenty of times. But I'm going to see the glass as half full and hope the model consensus holds for a decent event around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Funny...my perception is that overrunning events tend to nudge south with time. Lack of any amplifying upper wave/strong pva means any kind of sfc high to north wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 11:25 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Funny...my perception is that overrunning events tend to nudge south with time. Lack of any amplifying upper wave/strong pva means any kind of sfc high to north wins out. Expand Disagree, for around these parts anyways. These are the types of systems that you're sitting pretty looking at 4-8"/6-10" about 12 hours from go time...and then the whole thing shifts north 60 miles at the last minute...and because the snow area is relatively narrow, you're left fighting for scraps. Seen it happen too many times. Good for me I'm not in the running, so no need to sweat that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 11:32 AM, Chicago WX said: Disagree, for around these parts anyways. These are the types of systems that you're sitting pretty looking at 4-8"/6-10" about 12 hours from go time...and then the whole thing shifts north 60 miles at the last minute...and because the snow area is relatively narrow, you're left fighting for scraps. Seen it happen too many times. Good for me I'm not in the running, so no need to sweat that scenario. Expand North = bad for you, South = bad for me. Probably our eternal pessimism shining through. Good to talk to you again Tim. It's been too long. You can take a good long break from this board but it eventually lures you back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 11:40 AM, snowstormcanuck said: North = bad for you, South = bad for me. Probably our eternal pessimism shining through. Good to talk to you again Tim. It's been too long. You can take a good long break from this board but it eventually lures you back Expand You too Mike. And lol, I only come back for the snow. Always will be my weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 11:43 AM, Chicago WX said: You too Mike. And lol, I only come back for the snow. Always will be my weakness. Expand I'm basically the same. And even then I post pretty sparingly, especially compared to the 1000 posts/winter I used to author. Such a cruel hobby. Beats you down mercilessly, and you come crawling back for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 11:32 AM, Chicago WX said: Disagree, for around these parts anyways. These are the types of systems that you're sitting pretty looking at 4-8"/6-10" about 12 hours from go time...and then the whole thing shifts north 60 miles at the last minute...and because the snow area is relatively narrow, you're left fighting for scraps. Seen it happen too many times. Good for me I'm not in the running, so no need to sweat that scenario. Expand GFS at 6z took a good jog south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 12:14 PM, mimillman said: GFS at 6z took a good jog south. Expand Only flaw in that is that it’s the GFS, lol. I mean I’m not totally giving up on getting something out this event here, but the good stuff will be north. I just need another 1-2” to get to double digits going back to last Sunday, so I’m hoping for that. Regardless, 6z NAM moving into the Euro camp is even further proof for me. But we’ll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 12:40 PM, Chicago WX said: Only flaw in that is that it’s the GFS, lol. I mean I’m not totally giving up on getting something out this event here, but the good stuff will be north. I just need another 1-2” to get to double digits going back to last Sunday, so I’m hoping for that. Regardless, 6z NAM moving into the Euro camp is even further proof for me. But we’ll see... Expand You’re out of IKK right? Being as far south as we are is a dangerous game, but I wouldn’t give up hope for this system yet. With the high pressure lurking I wouldn’t be shocked if it wobbled south rather than north. That being said, I’ve seen it go the other way more times that not. Still optimistic though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Well, the nam did go north. Let’s see if globals budge or not. Not sure how much it applies here, but with the system on Monday the nam was too far north the whole time, and the gfs ended up winning out ironically. Not saying that’s going to be the case here but just something to think about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 these type of events love to end up dumping on palm tree's 35 miles north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 2:33 PM, CoalCityWxMan said: Well, the nam did go north. Let’s see if globals budge or not. Not sure how much it applies here, but with the system on Monday the nam was too far north the whole time, and the gfs ended up winning out ironically. Not saying that’s going to be the case here but just something to think about Best to use the NAMs as a tool to show the likely intensity of the f-gen banding with this, but at 36+ hours out from snow start time, still probably too early to use it for specific location of banding. Gut feeling is that the 12km is a bit too amped but also feeling increasingly confident in a good hit for the Chicago metro. Considering that Monday's clipper produced 10"+ amounts in IA and tomorrow evening through Friday overrunning will have more moisture to work with and a tighter baroclinic zone, 12"+ amounts appear quite possible just in this period alone. The Kuchera map outputs should perform well as a rough idea for where the banding sets up. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 3:20 PM, RCNYILWX said: Best to use the NAMs as a tool to show the likely intensity of the f-gen banding with this, but at 36+ hours out from snow start time, still probably too early to use it for specific location of banding. Gut feeling is that the 12km is a bit too amped but also feeling increasingly confident in a good hit for the Chicago metro. Considering that Monday's clipper produced 10"+ amounts in IA and tomorrow evening through Friday overrunning will have more moisture to work with and a tighter baroclinic zone, 12"+ amounts appear quite possible just in this period alone. The Kuchera map outputs should perform well as a rough idea for where the banding sets up. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Expand Looks like timing could make for a disastrous commute to and from work on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Yeah Friday might end up being a good day to stay home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 GFS continues to like the more southern idea jackpotting I-80, just south of the Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 4:06 PM, mimillman said: GFS continues to like the more southern idea jackpotting I-80, just south of the Chicago metro.GEM just doubled down on previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The trend of more separation between the waves and the first's CAA shunting things don't bode as well for Iowa, but don't matter as much for IL. I'd still be satisfied with this system, but it's trending more towards a garden variety WSW as opposed to a real big dog, which was modeled yesterday. Areas in IL where the two waves overlap stand to do very well, unfortunately this overlap zone isn't looking as wide as it once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Yeah the gfs/gem deliver a good hit to basically all of N IL and surrounding areas. No 20+” amounts like there were yesterday, but I think we all knew the chances of that happening were slim anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 4:06 PM, mimillman said: GFS continues to like the more southern idea jackpotting I-80, just south of the Chicago metro. Expand On 2/7/2018 at 4:15 PM, RCNYILWX said: GEM just doubled down on previous run. Expand Cant really complain about model agreement when we are wiggling back and forth the latitude of Cook Co with the centering of the heaviest snow. Even moderate ratios, 12-15:1, and we have a great event. Has this wave been sampled yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 2:40 PM, UMB WX said: these type of events love to end up dumping on palm tree's 35 miles north of me. Expand We've definitely seen these bands lift further north than modeled and dump in these types of scenarios. That said, I'd guess somewhere between Cook County and you will receive the brunt of this. Now I'll keep my mouth shut and watch this develop for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 At this time, looks like a good hit for a good portion of the sub... ~6” with isolated higher amounts seem doable from roughly I-80 to I-94. Since the snow will be falling over the period of 24 hours, I would expect GRR to go with a WWA - Detroit probably following suit. The second wave drops an inch or two from Gary ENE into the Detroit area Saturday into Sunday. Nice to have a week of systems to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 4:42 PM, tuanis said: We've definitely seen these bands lift further north than modeled and dump in these types of scenarios. That said, I'd guess somewhere between Cook County and you will receive the brunt of this. Now I'll keep my mouth shut and watch this develop for a bit.We have a couple counterbalancing factors, the strength of the WAA, tightening baroclinic zone and trying to shunt it north, while at same time cold high pressing in from the northwest. I'd be surprised if sweet spot ends up in WI, feel pretty confident it will be somewhere over northern IL.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 4:42 PM, tuanis said: We've definitely seen these bands lift further north than modeled and dump in these types of scenarios. That said, I'd guess somewhere between Cook County and you will receive the brunt of this. Now I'll keep my mouth shut and watch this develop for a bit. Expand Yeah looking very encouraging for south of the border. I should have stated that when these types of events show the brunt close to me, it just loves to Jackpot the palms in Saukville. NAM loves to hang on to the northern most solution almost every event and fails in almost every event this far out. Just a matter now of how far south in Illinois can get in to the 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 4:52 PM, UMB WX said: Yeah looking very encouraging for south of the border. I should have stated that when these types of events show the brunt close to me, it just loves to Jackpot the palms in Saukville. NAM loves to hang on to the northern most solution almost every event and fails in almost every event this far out. Just a matter now of how far south in Illinois can get in to the 6+ Expand 15 miles north of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Northern Indiana Weather Office, after coordination with other local offices, feels pretty confident for a 6-12" snow fall in Northern Indiana/NW OH/ SE MI. Seems like Winter Storm Watches should follow suit shortly for these areas. Seems like the snow band would not likely shift too much farther north with the Powerful High North of the stationary front, imo. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 4:39 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: Cant really complain about model agreement when we are wiggling back and forth the latitude of Cook Co with the centering of the heaviest snow. Even moderate ratios, 12-15:1, and we have a great event. Has this wave been sampled yet? Expand Should be partially sampled by tonight, and then the leading energy by tomorrow 12z. We'll get a good idea of the 2nd wave by tomorrow night 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 5:02 PM, Snowstorms said: Should be partially sampled by tonight, and then the leading energy by tomorrow 12z. We'll get a good idea of the 2nd wave by tomorrow night 0z. Yeah, was gonna say the north Pac energy will be coming ashore this evening, could be some as soon as late this afternoon, but only partial sampling this evening. There will also be influence from a northern stream trough/wave currently over far northern Canada over the Northwest Territories. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 4:49 PM, RCNYILWX said: We have a couple counterbalancing factors, the strength of the WAA, tightening baroclinic zone and trying to shunt it north, while at same time cold high pressing in from the northwest. I'd be surprised if sweet spot ends up in WI, feel pretty confident it will be somewhere over northern IL. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Expand Agree with this, it is these counterbalancing factors that are going to help enhance the frontogenesis even more. I am locked in on your area and my area getting pounded with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 NAM makes me a little cautious, but even that is not a total disaster around here. Too bad the band of big totals is not wider. Anyhow, at this point, no reason not to think there will be double digit totals (possibly locally well over a foot) in a narrow corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/7/2018 at 5:06 PM, RCNYILWX said: Yeah, was gonna say the north Pac energy will be coming ashore this evening, could be some as soon as late this afternoon, but only partial sampling this evening. There will also be influence from a northern stream trough/wave currently over far northern Canada over the Northwest Territories. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Expand Given the wave's origins in Canada, the CMC should have a better handle of the upper air dynamics of the leading wave which will ultimately affect the track and rates of this system. As far as I'm concerned, it could nudge ~50 miles north or south based on today's model solutions, but otherwise Iowa and Illinois into Michigan are locked in quite well. The Pac energy doesn't fully come onshore by tomorrow afternoon, so maybe tomorrow night we'll get a full sampling of the entire event, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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