Feb 7th snow threat

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The warm push at 925mb is very pronounced. This is more a ZR than IP threat.

Agreed, doubt we see sleet except maybe heavier rates when ZR is overhead

[White Gorilla]

Mid level warmth always seems to over perform in these setups 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That's what I'll get if I'm lucky, not what you'll get. You'll probably switch to a ton of sleet and some ZR, maybe you get to 33-34 at the end. Surface temps modeled are almost always too warm in these events inland. Here I think it's a solid chance I hit 50F. 

Once wind shift to the south it’s off to the races. You actually may stay colder then you think though with near shore water temps in the upper 30s

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Lol nope

I wouldn't rule it out. The changeover usually comes a bit earlier than expected with these systems, so we really need to rip for a few hours and I'm not sure I see the kind of banding signature that would lend itself to rapid accumulations. 6-8" is usually the soft ceiling for SWFEs even if you're all snow. Waste 1/3 to 1/2 of your precip on unsavory p-types and it's a nuisance event.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Once wind shift to the south it’s off to the races. You actually may stay colder then you think though with near shore water temps in the upper 30s

Depends on where the low tracks. It's a deep easterly flow though so there's plenty of warmth that comes my way. If it really goes over NYC, I think I make it to 50.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

23 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I wouldn't rule it out. The changeover usually comes a bit earlier than expected with these systems, so we really need to rip for a few hours and I'm not sure I see the kind of banding signature that would lend itself to rapid accumulations. 6-8" is usually the soft ceiling for SWFEs even if you're all snow. Waste 1/3 to 1/2 of your precip on unsavory p-types and it's a nuisance event.

This thing has a connection deep into the Gulf. That’s why areas that stay all snow should see a foot plus. I’ll be in the southern greens Friday and I’m expecting a ton of snow up there. I think you’ll rip pretty hard before the changeover. I think there will be less ice and more of a snow to rain scenario 

[Juliancolton]

Rest in pieces.

[Juliancolton]

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This thing has a connection deep into the Gulf. That’s why areas that stay all snow should see a foot plus. I’ll be in the southern greens Friday and I’m expecting a ton of snow up there. I think you’ll rip pretty hard before the changeover. I think there will be less ice and more of a snow to rain scenario 

Agreed on ice being a minimal concern. We do get a plume of respectable PWATs but it swings through so quickly. It's about a 9-hour deal in most places on the GFS. It would be awesome for upstate NY and NNE to cash in with a foot... I just wouldn't be brave enough to put that in my forecast.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Euro still colder than others

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Agreed on ice being a minimal concern. We do get a plume of respectable PWATs but it swings through so quickly. It's about a 9-hour deal in most places on the GFS. It would be awesome for upstate NY and NNE to cash in with a foot... I just wouldn't be brave enough to put that in my forecast.

Pardon my stupidity, but what does the acronym PWAT stand for? 

[NJwx85]

Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Euro still colder than others

Warmer than 00z though.

 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Pardon my stupidity, but what does the acronym PWAT stand for? 

Precipitable Water. Essentially the amount of moisture available at any given time that can be wrung out as precip.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Warmer than 00z though.

 

Yup

[White Gorilla]

5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Euro still colder than others

If we take a blend of all guidance I would say 2-4 inches across most of the Mid Hudson Valley with 3-6 north of Kingston and Rhinebeck before freezing rain  and sleet mix more sleet the further north,  ending as plain drizzle.  

[NJwx85]

Per the latest Euro, would need to revise my forecast to this

Southeast of pink line < 1"

Blue line is 2-4"

Dark Blue Line is 4-6"

Yellow area is 6-8"+

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

[White Gorilla]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Precipitable Water. Essentially the amount of moisture available at any given time that can be wrung out as precip.

Thanks.  Dammit this low just couldn't track off of NJ to Montauk given the gulf fetch 

[NJwx85]

Red area gets a decent amount of icing on the Euro.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Thanks.  Dammit this low just couldn't track off of NJ to Montauk given the gulf fetch 

It's not the surface low track that's killing us, it's the track of the mid-level cyclones. 

[White Gorilla]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Per the latest Euro, would need to revise my forecast to this

Southeast of pink line < 1"

Blue line is 2-4"

Dark Blue Line is 4-6"

Yellow area is 6-8"+

This puts Poughkeepsie and surrounding in 6-8.  Given latest guidance blend, I think that is too high, although I wish that would verify. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

This puts Poughkeepsie and surrounding in 6-8.  Given latest guidance blend, I think that is too high, although I wish that would verify. 

The Euro actually has 8"+ amounts just North of the 84/87 interchange.

[White Gorilla]

NWS still has us 4-8.  They will likely D/C the WSW and change to WWA later today with 2-4. 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, snywx said:

Looking icy up here. Those warm mid levels are gonna kill the snow potential here

 

1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Yea I’d be shocked if 2” is our ceiling tho

I'm thinking 1-2 by me going to PL. For you guys 3-5 to sleet. The mid levels will do me in and the southerly flow up the river valley. You guys will hold on a bit longer.  

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

[White Gorilla]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro actually has 8"+ amounts just North of the 84/87 interchange.

I wish but not buying it given other guidance.  Will need to look at the mesos later today.. I don't live too far from the river, so my valley location will further decrease snow amounts. 

[hudsonvalley21]

3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

The overnight forecasted lows around 15-20 will make some ice conditions where rain will freeze on contact mid-morning on whoever flips over to rain up this way.

[White Gorilla]

4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

The overnight forecasted lows around 15-20 will make some ice conditions where rain will freeze on contact mid-morning on whoever flips over to rain up this way.

Yes I do think that cold air will be stubborn to scour out at the surface given the fresh injection.  I think ZR issues will be problematic for many. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

A lot of talk about the low level jet...saying when it does in fact snow..1-2" per hour rates certainly possible for front dump

[hudsonvalley21]

6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I wish but not buying it given other guidance.  Will need to look at the mesos later today.. I don't live too far from the river, so my valley location will further decrease snow amounts. 

Same for me here my elevation is 125'. We might get some ice accumulate on frozen surfaces if the cold surface air doesn't get pushed out. 

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Yes I do think that cold air will be stubborn to scour out at the surface given the fresh injection.  I think ZR issues will be problematic for many. 

The CAD has had a history of hanging on for awhile in our areas.