NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 12z RGEM with the heavy front end dump. This goes along with my thinking of those higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Then RGEM flips over to a heavy icing situation for most by 16z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Still ice N&W at 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 And certain places stay ice until things wrap up around 01z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 NAM might be driving too far north with the surface low and making it too warm. The GFS looks to have gotten a little warmer at 6z though so it could be onto something. There’s usually more of a front end snow on these since the snow normally moves in quicker than models show, but the warm air aloft does too. I still think I-84 is the line where you might start seeing 6” amounts. Down here I doubt there’s more than a coating or something that’s washed away in an hour. Central PA north of the turnpike might actually do well for a change but eventually they warm too and go to ice. This looks like a very typical SWFE that’s good for much of New England and upstate NY around I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 31 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The nam is really the warmest guidance... and by a lot... gfs brings mix well inland but tail end, rgem is not as warm as nam, neither is ggem... euro last night was all snow north and west of 84, I think his totals look about right, as is NWS thinking that the temps are too warm on the nam.. they also have been tossing the nam per their AFD last nights euro by ptype 2-3" before you mix. enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The 12z GFS looks warm. Changeover in my area occurs around 17z. If that's the case then my totals will be too high. Still think there is room for temps to trend colder, especially at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The one given near the coast with these events is that it usually never sleets. It’s typically a snow to rain event with maybe 30 minutes where you may see sleet pellets mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 2-3" before you mix. enjoy! Lol nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Confirmed, ugly setup on the NAM. Surface temps around Oakland, NJ are in the upper 20's while the rest of the profile is well above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Confirmed, ugly setup on the NAM. Surface temps around Oakland, NJ are in the upper 20's while the rest of the profile is well above freezing. Gfs with the torch now, very little ice, snow/rain way up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lol nope Looking icy up here. Those warm mid levels are gonna kill the snow potential here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gfs with the torch now, very little ice, snow/rain way up The GFS is awful with temperature profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I am confused. Last night some Mets were saying colder and now trend is warmer.. So, is this really going to fizzle out now for areas South of Kingston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, snywx said: Looking icy up here. Those warm mid levels are gonna kill the snow potential here Yea I’d be shocked if 2” is our ceiling tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Ggem spikes the warmth now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Front end dump then rain almost to albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea I’d be shocked if 2” is our ceiling tho I think our chances of 6"+ have dropped considerably in the last 12hrs. What would be your call for areas along and just north of 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ggem spikes the warmth now too So much for Bernie's video yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Front end dump then rain almost to albany At this rate, we can expect an inch of snow washed away by downpours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Almost every piece of guidance has the SLP dissecting NYC from SW to NE. All snow zone has shifted to areas like liberty and the northern Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, snywx said: I think our chances of 6"+ have dropped considerably in the last 12hrs. What would be your call for areas along and just north of 84? 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ggem spikes the warmth now too How do the 925mb temps look on the GGEM and gfs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: At this rate, we can expect an inch of snow washed away by downpours That's what I'll get if I'm lucky, not what you'll get. You'll probably switch to a ton of sleet and some ZR, maybe you get to 33-34 at the end. Surface temps modeled are almost always too warm in these events inland. Here I think it's a solid chance I hit 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: How do the 925mb temps look on the GGEM and gfs ? Also surface significantly warmer than previously...we went from 23 to 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 GGEM gets 2 inches of snow down to NYC. Not bad. Hopefully RGEM/GGEM are right about the front end dump. If NAM is right NYC will see almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Also surface significantly warmer than previously...we went from 23 to 33 GFS is the last model I'd look to for surface temps here. I'd look to some of the meso models with better resolution and without the warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: GFS is the last model I'd look to for surface temps here. I'd look to some of the meso models with better resolution and without the warm bias. Agreed, I was just showing cause he asked...that’s a wild I run swing in temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Agreed, I was just showing cause he asked...that’s a wild I run swing in temps I could see the warm mid level temps being underdone though. Sleet will likely make it way inland, past Albany. I think 90% or more of Orange and maybe Putnam never sees plain rain though. Just tons of sleet and a glaze from ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I could see the warm mid level temps being underdone though. Sleet will likely make it way inland, past Albany. I think 90% or more of Orange and maybe Putnam never sees plain rain though. Just tons of sleet and a glaze from ZR. The warm push at 925mb is very pronounced. This is more a ZR than IP threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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