White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 28 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Dudes usually hyper conservative and is by far not a weenie....also Bernie rayno agreed..gonwatch his vid...it’s interesting I just did. Very interesting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Nam is warm I toss still think it will be 4 inches in NYC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: still think it will be 4 inches in NYC ? Yes I do edit I’m 5 posted but yea I’m tossing the nam. You can’t live by each model run and models are only guidance experience and gut feeling is how I make my final calls. 3k nam much better now that’s something I can agree this could really be a bad ice storm once the mid levels warm. Even for Central Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Yes I do so you are tossing the NAM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, snow1 said: The guys a weenie. He always thinks every storm will trend to give him big snows. Never right! scary thing is another well known talking head MET we all know is going with 2 -4 in NYC - In my opinion it is way to early to be drawing snow maps for this system since we don't know exactly where this front coming through tomorrow with the fresh injection of colder air is going to set up - any shift in one direction or another by as little as 50 - 100 miles will have major implications across the tri -state and we will not know for sure until later tomorrow …………..and even then we will not know if that 1040 HP is going to strengthen and hold its ground longer then expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: scary thing is another well known talking head MET we all know is going with 2 -4 in NYC - In my opinion it is way to early to be drawing snow maps for this system since we don't know exactly where this front coming through tomorrow with the fresh injection of colder air is going to set up - any shift in one direction or another by as little as 50 - 100 miles will have major implications across the tri -state and we will not know for sure until later tomorrow ………….. I had all but given up on this one for us....should I be interested? How long is the rain, and if we should get a front end dump, will it all be washed away as happens so often in these set ups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Gfs holds..still cold north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Gfs actually a tick cooler technically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Gfs has the low ending up south of NYC traveling END Still mostly rain here with some snow to start and at the end but nothing big. This run is colder for inland areas of PA and NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Western Orange County is all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Rgem similar to gfs...big thump for W Orange County changover as it it pulls out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Ggem is terribly warm good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Guidance looks about narrowed in...front end snow to rain for city, rockland to about 25-30 miles north of 84 snow to mix, then all snow north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 So if you're ~5 miles south of 84 and have a little bit of elevation what would you be thinking? Also, what are we looking at for start/end times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Final Call Yellow is 8-10"+ Dark Blue is 6-8" Light Blue is 4-6" Pink is 2-4" Southeast of pink line is coating to 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Area in red has potential to see 0.25"+ ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Turkey Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Final Call Yellow is 8-10"+ Dark Blue is 6-8" Light Blue is 4-6" Pink is 2-4" Southeast of pink line is coating to 2" This seems rather bullish. I am in Ringwood and am not expecting 4-6". What is giving you the confidence for these totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Final Call Yellow is 8-10"+ Dark Blue is 6-8" Light Blue is 4-6" Pink is 2-4" Southeast of pink line is coating to 2" Guidance has tended warmer. Move those lines 20 miles NW and I think its good to go. Im expecting 6" the most here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, snywx said: Guidance has tended warmer. Move those lines 20 miles NW and I think its good to go. Im expecting 6" the most here. I believe some of the guidance is warming the BL too quickly. There should be a significant burst of moderate to heavy snow as precip arrives. I think most of my totals could fall within the first six hours, before any chance of a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Per the 12z NAM, surface temperatures are still stuck in the lower 30's, even at coastal locations at 20z. That's because models are still catching onto the low level cold air. Models always prematurely warm the BL in SWFE. Meanwhile 925mb temps are +4 at the same hour all the way up to Sussex. That's a freezing rain profile. Will need to wait for the sounding to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Final Call Yellow is 8-10"+ Dark Blue is 6-8" Light Blue is 4-6" Pink is 2-4" Southeast of pink line is coating to 2" I think you are a bit too far SE with the pink line in SE PA and even Central Jersey but since this is the NYC forum it may be unintentional. I work in Trenton and I'd be very surprised to see even a coating. Most guidance has us flipping to at least sleet fairly quickly like last weekends storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I believe some of the guidance is warming the BL too quickly. There should be a significant burst of moderate to heavy snow as precip arrives. I think most of my totals could fall within the first six hours, before any chance of a changeover. 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Per the 12z NAM, surface temperatures are still stuck in the lower 30's, even at coastal locations at 20z. That's because models are still catching onto the low level cold air. Models always prematurely warm the BL in SWFE. Meanwhile 925mb temps are +4 at the same hour all the way up to Sussex. That's a freezing rain profile. Will need to wait for the sounding to confirm. Even up here this is looking more and more like a ip/zr event with 2-3" on the front end. Hopefully im wrong and we end up with 6-8" but things are trending in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Even up here this is looking more and more like a ip/zr event with 2-3" on the front end. I welcome disagreement. I could be too bullish, just going with my gut on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I believe some of the guidance is warming the BL too quickly. There should be a significant burst of moderate to heavy snow as precip arrives. I think most of my totals could fall within the first six hours, before any chance of a changeover. I think the mid levels will be the main issue in your map not verifying. We'll see though. They will really need to thump as soon as the precip starts and the changeover would be to be prolonged by a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: I think the mid levels will be the main issue in your map not verifying. We'll see though. The 12z NAM is really warm after 21z, but there should be a good amount of precip that falls between 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Nam goes warmer, Euro went colder overnight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Final Call Yellow is 8-10"+ Dark Blue is 6-8" Light Blue is 4-6" Pink is 2-4" Southeast of pink line is coating to 2" I think you're being overly optimistic, but I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam goes warmer, Euro went colder overnight lol Nine posts from number 10,000. Make it a historic one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I think you're being overly optimistic, but I hope you're right. The nam is really the warmest guidance... and by a lot... gfs brings mix well inland but tail end, rgem is not as warm as nam, neither is ggem... euro last night was all snow north and west of 84, I think his totals look about right, as is NWS thinking that the temps are too warm on the nam.. they also have been tossing the nam per their AFD last nights euro by ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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