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Feb 7th snow threat


UlsterCountySnowZ

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6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

That tail end band of snow was pretty well modeled with that mid level Vort sweeping through, most of long islands accumulations were modeled on this band, should be interesting to see what develops 

Doubt LI gets below freezing until it passes through, but we'll see. It's 44 here in the city. 

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9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

That tail end band of snow was pretty well modeled with that mid level Vort sweeping through, most of long islands accumulations were modeled on this band, should be interesting to see what develops 

Most of LI is in the mid 40s to around 50.. This band looks to miss the coast to the N anyway.

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15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

That tail end band of snow was pretty well modeled with that mid level Vort sweeping through, most of long islands accumulations were modeled on this band, should be interesting to see what develops 

It appears to be holding up well.  Hope I can get some snows out of it when it comes thru here. 

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This westward or warmer storm track correction in the short term is becoming so predictable. It doesn't even pay to get interested in a storm for the coast unless the models have it a few hundred miles east of the BM several days out before it corrects back closer to the BM. Either the mid level center comes west warming the lower levels above the ground more, or the actual low comes west.

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38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This westward or warmer storm track correction in the short term is becoming so predictable. It doesn't even pay to get interested in a storm for the coast unless the models have it a few hundred miles east of the BM several days out before it corrects back closer to the BM. Either the mid level center comes west warming the lower levels above the ground more, or the actual low comes west.

It's about time things corrected back towards long term climatology. Their is a reason why Binghamton, NY averages more than double what NYC averages.

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10 minutes ago, snywx said:

BGM averages way more than double than NYC. My area averages close to double what NYC averages.

Yes I know, more than 80". That's why I said more than double.

The Long Island, Central NJ and city posters have been spoiled the last 15 years and it's not going to be pretty when the correction comes.

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57 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's about time things corrected back towards long term climatology. Their is a reason why Binghamton, NY averages more than double what NYC averages.

But ISP is still ahead of the game compared to BGM through 2/8

BGM....40.2.....avg....51.1....departure....-10.9

ISP.....28.2......avg.....14.2...departure....+14.0

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But ISP is still ahead of the game compared to BGM through 2/8

BGM....40.2.....avg....51.1....departure....-10.9

ISP.....28.2......avg.....14.2...departure....+14.0

It's too early to tell if this is the beginning of the long term correction or if the recent trends in storm track are just a short term anomaly. That's why I said, when the correction occurs it's going to get ugly around here. That implies future tense.

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13 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Guess I didn’t make it to 50, highs around here were 46-49. Otherwise, a very forgettable Nina SWFE in this area that I’m glad is gone. Pretty much my least favorite storm type. 

yeah this was typical 80s/early 90s boring type of weather. I find 100+ days in the summer more exciting than this (it's why I became a fan of extreme heat growing up in the 80s and early 90s lol.)

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

It's too early to tell if this is the beginning of the long term correction or if the recent trends in storm track are just a short term anomaly. That's why I said, when the correction occurs it's going to get ugly around here. That implies future tense.

Well I think it's a climate adjustment not a statistical oddity.  I mean it's not that storms that would impact inland areas with wintry precip are coming further south and east but more like storms that would be south and east are coming closer to the coast (note how models always correct further N/W now.)  But as our climate warms even more it's going to get ugly for everyone who loves snowy weather.  But you all can become like me and become a big fan of extreme heat :)

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes I know, more than 80". That's why I said more than double.

The Long Island, Central NJ and city posters have been spoiled the last 15 years and it's not going to be pretty when the correction comes.

Climate change man....it's no "correction" if anything the climate is just going to keep getting warmer.

More snow comes from a boost in precip, the winters are actually milder than they were in the 80s.

Eventually it's going to get ugly for everyone, we're just in an intermediate stage right now.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This westward or warmer storm track correction in the short term is becoming so predictable. It doesn't even pay to get interested in a storm for the coast unless the models have it a few hundred miles east of the BM several days out before it corrects back closer to the BM. Either the mid level center comes west warming the lower levels above the ground more, or the actual low comes west.

True but it's like this almost every winter now because climate change has shifted offshore tracks closer to the coast.  The big snows we've had over the past decade or more would have been well offshore in the colder/drier 80s.

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31 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Climate change man....it's no "correction" if anything the climate is just going to keep getting warmer.

More snow comes from a boost in precip, the winters are actually milder than they were in the 80s.

Eventually it's going to get ugly for everyone, we're just in an intermediate stage right now.

This isn't the place to discuss the politics of climate change however I disagree with that argument.

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This isn't the place to discuss the politics of climate change however I disagree with that argument.

You shouldn't because the rise in precip is pretty much across the board throughout the entire year.  Storm tracks that were offshore have also moved closer to the coast.

This is an ENSO driven blip similar to what 07-08 was.  Eventually the storm tracks will shift so far N/W that we'll all be screwed, but most of the climate models don't see that happening until around 2050 or so.

It's science not politics lol, despite what some industry bribed politicians would have you believe.

 

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2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

You shouldn't because the rise in precip is pretty much across the board throughout the entire year.  Storm tracks that were offshore have also moved closer to the coast.

This is an ENSO driven blip similar to what 07-08 was.  Eventually the storm tracks will shift so far N/W that we'll all be screwed, but most of the climate models don't see that happening until around 2050 or so.

It's science not politics lol, despite what some industry bribed politicians would have you believe.

 

Take the global warming conversation to the political site. Plenty of people there to sop it up.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Take the global warming conversation to the political site. Plenty of people there to sop it up.

It belongs in climate and meteorology too, because it's science.  It's why America is the laughingstock of the rest of the world and backwards in science because it's the only country that bends over to corrupt corporate interests :))

 

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