NJwx85 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The main threat with this system for most areas will be freezing rain. Just look at where the 925mb low tracks. This looks like your typical ice storm for Sussex, Western Passaic, Orange and possibly upper Bergen and Western Rockland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 GGEM warmer 850 goes above 0 up to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 with decent consensus in the low tracking near or just south of the city, I think northern parts of the city and especially just inland will have a prolonged freezing rain risk due to N/NE surface winds (ageostrophic flow never modeled well). could be some quarter inch amounts up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 pretty surprised with the amount of QPF associated, most in the area see .5- 1.5", whoever lands on the northern side of the mix is getting 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Hopefully the precip comes in quicker than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: pretty surprised with the amount of QPF associated, most in the area see .5- 1.5", whoever lands on the northern side of the mix is getting 6-12" GGEM looks to still dump in and around 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hopefully the precip comes in quicker than modeled I think your upside is 3-6" This one just smells like sleet and freezing rain to me though thanks to the track of the mid-level cyclones and low level cold air which is always under modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, snywx said: GGEM looks to still dump in and around 84. North and West of KSWF looks to be mostly snow, Southeast of there looks to mix. It appears that there will be about a 25 mile swath of ZR/IP which extends from about the Warren/Morris County line Northeastward towards the Passaic/Bergen line and then up into Dutchess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 NWS,KALB going with 8”/12” Shades back open ,about time snow zone has a chance , cliff jumper finds his Shute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Super thunder blizzard god model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 What is to stop this from trending even warmer? This could very well be a mostly rain event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 ukmet isnt as far south anymore, brings much more precip north like other guidance, cant tell warm or cold tho, based off track it looks similar to GFS tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Happy national weatherpersons day to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What is to stop this from trending even warmer? This could very well be a mostly rain event for most. God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Euro def. colder so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: God Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Still brings mix pretty far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Still brings mix pretty far north In my experience around these parts, when there is a question of mix or no, it usually mixes and more than anticipated. Almost every event with the threat of mixing has that warm nose stronger and further north than progged, almost every single time.. Expecting 2-3 inches of snow here in Central Dutchess with a ton of IP and ZR on top. The 6 plus snows will stay north of and west of Kingston imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: In my experience around these parts, when there is a question of mix or no, it usually mixes and more than anticipated. Almost every event with the threat of mixing has that warm nose stronger and further north than progged, almost every single time.. Expecting 2-3 inches of snow here in Central Dutchess with a ton of IP and ZR on top. The 6 plus snows will stay north of and west of Kingston imo. I feel the opposite, I feel when models push the mix line north of 84...it usually never makes it past...I’d think your getting more than 2-3 up in Poughkeepsie....euro is the only model not giving u atleast 3-6... and 3 runs ago the euro was rain to Albany, hadn’t been the staple of consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 850 and 925 above 0 on euro up to my neck of the woods... surface cold... def warmest model as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I feel the opposite, I feel when models push the mix line north of 84...it usually never makes it past...I’d think your getting more than 2-3 up in Poughkeepsie....euro is the only model not giving u atleast 3-6... and 3 runs ago the euro was rain to Albany, hadn’t been the staple of consistency The mid level cyclones track over your head. Pretty much a guarantee that the mid level warm punch will at least reach your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 850 and 925 above 0 on euro up to my neck of the woods... surface cold... def warmest model as of now This isn’t an all snow event until you’re well NW of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The mid level cyclones track over your head. Pretty much a guarantee that the mid level warm punch will at least reach your area. Which models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Isn't the low tracking S of NYC by most of the guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This isn’t an all snow event until you’re well NW of 84. Agreed. Monticello looks to be in a good spot for 10"+.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 it's hard to get 10+ with these systems due to speed and poor ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 This is very close to a nice front end thump for the city on the 18z Nam Area just to the north and west of the city get a nice front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Watches up, 4-8” up here is what’s Albany’s going with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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