WEATHERBUFF Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 48 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam is insane warm....about 1 hr of snow before everyone here changes over nam has been horrible, anyway it's now nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The NAM gets the warm tongue around 900mb all the way up to +8C imby. Not the most conducive to sleet, that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 HRRR isn’t that great... but it’s not even remotely close to nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 Same time, nam vs HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The NAM gets the warm tongue around 900mb all the way up to +8C imby. Not the most conducive to sleet, that. That’s definitely a red flag for a good period of freezing rain. The surface warmth is still overdone IMO. There’s nothing to me that would surge surface warm air in if the surface low goes east of you. It might edge up to 33 at the end-latent heat from freezing can increase temps a couple of degrees I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Same time, nam vs HRRR Now way it’s rain (freezing) all the way to Binghamton. For the coast it’s still about getting heavy precip in as quickly as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Anyone have the 00z RGEM panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 mt holly nws update. going down with the ship. SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... 930 pm update: An analysis of the latest high-resolution model output and the 18Z operational model suite suggests the forecast is generally on track, though uncertainty remains, particularly regarding the timing of precipitation type transitions and resultant influences on storm total snow and ice amounts. There seems to be an additional trend toward warmer solutions, which increases the icing threat in the northern CWA and slightly reduces it south of I-78. However, I am somewhat skeptical. Model sounding analysis (NAM/RAP/HRRR) at KPHL during the morning rush indicates the potential for a couple hours of a wintry mix (primarily freezing rain and sleet) before transition to rain by mid to late morning. There are also indications that locations along/south of the I-76/I-276/I-195 corridors may see a brief break in precipitation before steadier rain moves in during the afternoon (as boundary-layer temperatures warm above freezing). Farther to the north, the transition will be slower, and I cannot help but wonder if models are too fast with the transition in general (especially with Sunday`s event freshly in mind). Though I expect a gradual transition to rain in much of the region south of I-78 by afternoon, the 10-15 degree dew point depressions observed this evening give me some pause. After wet-bulbing cools temperatures down, I think it will be more challenging to warm the near-surface layer as quickly as many of the models are projecting. For example, the latest HRRR has Reading and Allentown at rain by early afternoon. While certainly plausible given the good model agreement with the RAP and 18Z NAM Nest, models were universally too aggressive in warming areas northwest of the Fall Line for Sunday`s event. This requires close monitoring through the event, as a slower transition would prolong the wintry threat in these areas, which is concerning given the forecast precipitation amounts and the implied potential for a decent duration of freezing rain. The warming trend in models would temper snow amounts in the warning area somewhat, but would also increase the icing potential...think of it as a meteorological Hobson`s choice. With all of the above said, think the way to go is to let the forecast ride for now, continue to monitor short-term trends, and adjust as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Been saying all day, shift from a mainly snow event to a mainly freezing rain event for the immediate interior. Still think there’s a solid 3-5 hour period of moderate snow to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 41 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That’s definitely a red flag for a good period of freezing rain. The surface warmth is still overdone IMO. There’s nothing to me that would surge surface warm air in if the surface low goes east of you. It might edge up to 33 at the end-latent heat from freezing can increase temps a couple of degrees I guess. That last part is usually what sways me to hedge against significant icing without a source of cold air replenishment. At least some guidance has the sfc low going over my head, with the NAM sending it over Scranton... and the HRRR over the Finger Lakes, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 Long range... HRRR says snow to rain mostly... 84 and points north and west are snow till 1400, then the rain pushes almost to Well north of 84 like nam... ending as a cold rain... hopefully front end dump is fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 Rap same deal... we all raining tomorrow, be good to at least take the little ones outside from 8-12 and enjoy some front end dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I am actually surprised my current temp is down to 27 here. That should rise quickly come morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I am actually surprised my current temp is down to 27 here. That should rise quickly come morning. 24/20 here. Forecast low is 20. We could have some ice accumulate on some surfaces even after the flip over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Currently 18/16 here.. Crazy to think it will be raining tomorrow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just noticed a lot of stars out tonight, is that odd just before a storm,I’m near Albany and usually cold coverage before a morning storm...thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Sorry,cloud coverage,,not cold ..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 15 here low is suppose to go down to 13,they have us pegged for 6/10 starting at 8 am,not sure models are any good this yr....good luck guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 NYC 850T are +3 2mt are 47F HV 850t are +3 2mt are 37 whatever falls is getting washed lol..get out and enjoy it in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Staying up for now cast euro,like it matters..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bigfoot said: Staying up for now cast euro,like it matters..lol euro ticked warmer, in line with other guidance, you can go to bed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Damn,it played copy cat to the gfs...lol,nite!wheres my umbrella? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 One of the worst years of model performance in my memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: One of the worst years of model performance in my memory Don't worry we will probably have a blizzard in March lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Don't worry we will probably have a blizzard in March lol. It's not really about how much snow anyone gets. Even on 1/4 the models were pretty awful from even 2-3 days out. And with this one the profiles have just been terrible -- so much drag north in the last 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Temp has really gone up over the last couple of hours from 26 now up to 30, chances for any front end thump not looking to good IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Looks like my temp has level off and is holding at 29, precipitation approaching S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Temp has really gone up over the last couple of hours from 26 now up to 30, chances for any front end thump not looking to good IMO. 26 in Wantagh. Must be a central Jersey thing. Plus dews are low. We will wet bulb. Not that any of this matters much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 26 in Wantagh. Must be a central Jersey thing. Plus dews are low. We will wet bulb. Not that any of this matters much. My DP is holding at 21 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Precipitation really breaking out now just to our SW, should begin within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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