UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 4:53 PM, NJwx85 said: The warm push at 925mb is very pronounced. This is more a ZR than IP threat. Expand Agreed, doubt we see sleet except maybe heavier rates when ZR is overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Mid level warmth always seems to over perform in these setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 4:40 PM, jm1220 said: That's what I'll get if I'm lucky, not what you'll get. You'll probably switch to a ton of sleet and some ZR, maybe you get to 33-34 at the end. Surface temps modeled are almost always too warm in these events inland. Here I think it's a solid chance I hit 50F. Expand Once wind shift to the south it’s off to the races. You actually may stay colder then you think though with near shore water temps in the upper 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 3:53 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lol nope Expand I wouldn't rule it out. The changeover usually comes a bit earlier than expected with these systems, so we really need to rip for a few hours and I'm not sure I see the kind of banding signature that would lend itself to rapid accumulations. 6-8" is usually the soft ceiling for SWFEs even if you're all snow. Waste 1/3 to 1/2 of your precip on unsavory p-types and it's a nuisance event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 4:58 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Once wind shift to the south it’s off to the races. You actually may stay colder then you think though with near shore water temps in the upper 30s Expand Depends on where the low tracks. It's a deep easterly flow though so there's plenty of warmth that comes my way. If it really goes over NYC, I think I make it to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 4:59 PM, Juliancolton said: I wouldn't rule it out. The changeover usually comes a bit earlier than expected with these systems, so we really need to rip for a few hours and I'm not sure I see the kind of banding signature that would lend itself to rapid accumulations. 6-8" is usually the soft ceiling for SWFEs even if you're all snow. Waste 1/3 to 1/2 of your precip on unsavory p-types and it's a nuisance event. Expand This thing has a connection deep into the Gulf. That’s why areas that stay all snow should see a foot plus. I’ll be in the southern greens Friday and I’m expecting a ton of snow up there. I think you’ll rip pretty hard before the changeover. I think there will be less ice and more of a snow to rain scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Rest in pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 5:24 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This thing has a connection deep into the Gulf. That’s why areas that stay all snow should see a foot plus. I’ll be in the southern greens Friday and I’m expecting a ton of snow up there. I think you’ll rip pretty hard before the changeover. I think there will be less ice and more of a snow to rain scenario Expand Agreed on ice being a minimal concern. We do get a plume of respectable PWATs but it swings through so quickly. It's about a 9-hour deal in most places on the GFS. It would be awesome for upstate NY and NNE to cash in with a foot... I just wouldn't be brave enough to put that in my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Euro still colder than others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 5:43 PM, Juliancolton said: Agreed on ice being a minimal concern. We do get a plume of respectable PWATs but it swings through so quickly. It's about a 9-hour deal in most places on the GFS. It would be awesome for upstate NY and NNE to cash in with a foot... I just wouldn't be brave enough to put that in my forecast. Expand Pardon my stupidity, but what does the acronym PWAT stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:02 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro still colder than others Expand Warmer than 00z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:03 PM, White Gorilla said: Pardon my stupidity, but what does the acronym PWAT stand for? Expand Precipitable Water. Essentially the amount of moisture available at any given time that can be wrung out as precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:04 PM, NJwx85 said: Warmer than 00z though. Expand Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:02 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro still colder than others Expand If we take a blend of all guidance I would say 2-4 inches across most of the Mid Hudson Valley with 3-6 north of Kingston and Rhinebeck before freezing rain and sleet mix more sleet the further north, ending as plain drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Per the latest Euro, would need to revise my forecast to this Southeast of pink line < 1" Blue line is 2-4" Dark Blue Line is 4-6" Yellow area is 6-8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:05 PM, jm1220 said: Precipitable Water. Essentially the amount of moisture available at any given time that can be wrung out as precip. Expand Thanks. Dammit this low just couldn't track off of NJ to Montauk given the gulf fetch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Red area gets a decent amount of icing on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:08 PM, White Gorilla said: Thanks. Dammit this low just couldn't track off of NJ to Montauk given the gulf fetch Expand It's not the surface low track that's killing us, it's the track of the mid-level cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:06 PM, NJwx85 said: Per the latest Euro, would need to revise my forecast to this Southeast of pink line < 1" Blue line is 2-4" Dark Blue Line is 4-6" Yellow area is 6-8"+ Expand This puts Poughkeepsie and surrounding in 6-8. Given latest guidance blend, I think that is too high, although I wish that would verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:10 PM, White Gorilla said: This puts Poughkeepsie and surrounding in 6-8. Given latest guidance blend, I think that is too high, although I wish that would verify. Expand The Euro actually has 8"+ amounts just North of the 84/87 interchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 NWS still has us 4-8. They will likely D/C the WSW and change to WWA later today with 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 4:08 PM, snywx said: Looking icy up here. Those warm mid levels are gonna kill the snow potential here Expand On 2/6/2018 at 4:25 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea I’d be shocked if 2” is our ceiling tho Expand I'm thinking 1-2 by me going to PL. For you guys 3-5 to sleet. The mid levels will do me in and the southerly flow up the river valley. You guys will hold on a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:11 PM, NJwx85 said: The Euro actually has 8"+ amounts just North of the 84/87 interchange. Expand I wish but not buying it given other guidance. Will need to look at the mesos later today.. I don't live too far from the river, so my valley location will further decrease snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:13 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Expand The overnight forecasted lows around 15-20 will make some ice conditions where rain will freeze on contact mid-morning on whoever flips over to rain up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:19 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: The overnight forecasted lows around 15-20 will make some ice conditions where rain will freeze on contact mid-morning on whoever flips over to rain up this way. Expand Yes I do think that cold air will be stubborn to scour out at the surface given the fresh injection. I think ZR issues will be problematic for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 A lot of talk about the low level jet...saying when it does in fact snow..1-2" per hour rates certainly possible for front dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:15 PM, White Gorilla said: I wish but not buying it given other guidance. Will need to look at the mesos later today.. I don't live too far from the river, so my valley location will further decrease snow amounts. Expand Same for me here my elevation is 125'. We might get some ice accumulate on frozen surfaces if the cold surface air doesn't get pushed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 6:22 PM, White Gorilla said: Yes I do think that cold air will be stubborn to scour out at the surface given the fresh injection. I think ZR issues will be problematic for many. Expand The CAD has had a history of hanging on for awhile in our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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