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Feb 7th snow threat


UlsterCountySnowZ

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  On 2/6/2018 at 4:40 PM, jm1220 said:

That's what I'll get if I'm lucky, not what you'll get. You'll probably switch to a ton of sleet and some ZR, maybe you get to 33-34 at the end. Surface temps modeled are almost always too warm in these events inland. Here I think it's a solid chance I hit 50F. 

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Once wind shift to the south it’s off to the races. You actually may stay colder then you think though with near shore water temps in the upper 30s

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  On 2/6/2018 at 3:53 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Lol nope

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I wouldn't rule it out. The changeover usually comes a bit earlier than expected with these systems, so we really need to rip for a few hours and I'm not sure I see the kind of banding signature that would lend itself to rapid accumulations. 6-8" is usually the soft ceiling for SWFEs even if you're all snow. Waste 1/3 to 1/2 of your precip on unsavory p-types and it's a nuisance event.

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  On 2/6/2018 at 4:58 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Once wind shift to the south it’s off to the races. You actually may stay colder then you think though with near shore water temps in the upper 30s

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Depends on where the low tracks. It's a deep easterly flow though so there's plenty of warmth that comes my way. If it really goes over NYC, I think I make it to 50.

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  On 2/6/2018 at 4:59 PM, Juliancolton said:

I wouldn't rule it out. The changeover usually comes a bit earlier than expected with these systems, so we really need to rip for a few hours and I'm not sure I see the kind of banding signature that would lend itself to rapid accumulations. 6-8" is usually the soft ceiling for SWFEs even if you're all snow. Waste 1/3 to 1/2 of your precip on unsavory p-types and it's a nuisance event.

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This thing has a connection deep into the Gulf. That’s why areas that stay all snow should see a foot plus. I’ll be in the southern greens Friday and I’m expecting a ton of snow up there. I think you’ll rip pretty hard before the changeover. I think there will be less ice and more of a snow to rain scenario 

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  On 2/6/2018 at 5:24 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This thing has a connection deep into the Gulf. That’s why areas that stay all snow should see a foot plus. I’ll be in the southern greens Friday and I’m expecting a ton of snow up there. I think you’ll rip pretty hard before the changeover. I think there will be less ice and more of a snow to rain scenario 

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Agreed on ice being a minimal concern. We do get a plume of respectable PWATs but it swings through so quickly. It's about a 9-hour deal in most places on the GFS. It would be awesome for upstate NY and NNE to cash in with a foot... I just wouldn't be brave enough to put that in my forecast.

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  On 2/6/2018 at 5:43 PM, Juliancolton said:

Agreed on ice being a minimal concern. We do get a plume of respectable PWATs but it swings through so quickly. It's about a 9-hour deal in most places on the GFS. It would be awesome for upstate NY and NNE to cash in with a foot... I just wouldn't be brave enough to put that in my forecast.

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Pardon my stupidity, but what does the acronym PWAT stand for? 

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  On 2/6/2018 at 6:02 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Euro still colder than others

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If we take a blend of all guidance I would say 2-4 inches across most of the Mid Hudson Valley with 3-6 north of Kingston and Rhinebeck before freezing rain  and sleet mix more sleet the further north,  ending as plain drizzle.  

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  On 2/6/2018 at 6:06 PM, NJwx85 said:

Per the latest Euro, would need to revise my forecast to this

Southeast of pink line < 1"

Blue line is 2-4"

Dark Blue Line is 4-6"

Yellow area is 6-8"+

sketched_5a79ee7a51c39.png

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This puts Poughkeepsie and surrounding in 6-8.  Given latest guidance blend, I think that is too high, although I wish that would verify. 

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  On 2/6/2018 at 4:08 PM, snywx said:

Looking icy up here. Those warm mid levels are gonna kill the snow potential here

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  On 2/6/2018 at 4:25 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Yea I’d be shocked if 2” is our ceiling tho

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I'm thinking 1-2 by me going to PL. For you guys 3-5 to sleet. The mid levels will do me in and the southerly flow up the river valley. You guys will hold on a bit longer.  

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  On 2/6/2018 at 6:19 PM, hudsonvalley21 said:

The overnight forecasted lows around 15-20 will make some ice conditions where rain will freeze on contact mid-morning on whoever flips over to rain up this way.

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Yes I do think that cold air will be stubborn to scour out at the surface given the fresh injection.  I think ZR issues will be problematic for many. 

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  On 2/6/2018 at 6:15 PM, White Gorilla said:

I wish but not buying it given other guidance.  Will need to look at the mesos later today.. I don't live too far from the river, so my valley location will further decrease snow amounts. 

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Same for me here my elevation is 125'. We might get some ice accumulate on frozen surfaces if the cold surface air doesn't get pushed out. 

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