EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 8:32 PM, Snow88 said: This is very close to a nice front end thump for the city on the 18z Nam Area just to the north and west of the city get a nice front end thump Expand City gets some snow according to NAM. 1 to 2. Just to north in Westchester and coastal CT 2 to 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Hi res Nam is significantly cooler than 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Hi res Nam has a few hours of moderate precip with the freezing line right over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 8:44 PM, Snow88 said: Hi res Nam has a few hours of moderate precip with the freezing line right over the area. Expand NAM suite gives City and LI couple inches hopefully it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 310 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 NYZ062-PAZ043-044-047-048-072-062015- /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0002.180207T1100Z-180208T0500Z/ Sullivan-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Monticello, Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, Wilkes-Barre, Milford, and Honesdale 310 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the afternoon commute on Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are possible. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Wyoming, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike and Southern Wayne Counties. In New York, Sullivan County. * WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are possible. The highest snow totals are expected across the higher elevations in the area. The heaviest snowfall is expected from 10 AM until 2 PM Wednesday, before precipitation mixes with sleet, rain and freezing rain. The wintry mix should change back to light snow or snow showers, before ending Wednesday evening. Snow may fall at rates up to 1 inch per hour at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 8:46 PM, EastonSN+ said: NAM suite gives City and LI couple inches hopefully it continues Expand On the cusp of something decent...per NAM 3K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Gfs with a surprise back end dump for Long Island ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 9:48 PM, Metasequoia said: On the cusp of something decent...per NAM 3K. Expand A lot of this counts mix as snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Rain never gets above 84 on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 RGEM with a really nice front end dump before change over to mix for Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 9:55 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gfs with a surprise back end dump for Long Island ) Expand That has been showing up occasionally but it doesn’t really make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 9:59 PM, SnowGoose69 said: That has been showing up occasionally but it doesn’t really make sense Expand Pretty strong trailing vort still rounding the trough...would lead to a back end wave of precip like a ‘tail"...only thing I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 It’s likely too dry but some models are now sneaking snow close to here tomorrow with that dying disturbance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 6:30 PM, White Gorilla said: Isn't the low tracking S of NYC by most of the guidance? Expand I’m not talking about the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I can't see this being more then an inch or so on the front end right now for the immediate NYC metro, further north and west a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 11:49 PM, Rtd208 said: I can't see this being more then an inch or so on the front end right now for the immediate NYC metro, further north and west a different story. Expand I like about 4” IMBY before a flip to sleet and feeezing rain, ending as some drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 11:49 PM, Rtd208 said: I can't see this being more then an inch or so on the front end right now for the immediate NYC metro, further north and west a different story. Expand Like every storm I remember in the early 90's ( even the late March 92 twin storms changed to rain, but had a decent thump first ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Feeling pretty good about 6” here before changing/ending as some ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Feeling good about an eighth of an inch coating on my car before it melts 15 minutes later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I could see a quick inch or two around the city if precip comes in soon enough, before warm air overwhelms. I-84 IMO is the line north of where could see 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 surprisingly Cranky is going overperformer.. as is bernie Rayno, thinks the cold i undermodeled , cranky says high end snow totals, or better "More impressive by the hour. Between this trigger vort & the strong PWAT fetch developing out of the gulf - if guidance were to trend it'd probably be up with QPF. Aside from thermal related issues, think most snow ranged hit the high notes or exceed with this one." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Tomorrow’s trough that swings through injects our cold air...brings some snow showers and fresh cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 1:13 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: surprisingly Cranky is going overperformer.. as is bernie Rayno, thinks the cold i undermodeled , cranky says high end snow totals, or better "More impressive by the hour. Between this trigger vort & the strong PWAT fetch developing out of the gulf - if guidance were to trend it'd probably be up with QPF. Aside from thermal related issues, think most snow ranged hit the high notes or exceed with this one." Expand who is Cranky ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 1:45 AM, NEG NAO said: who is Cranky ? Expand Twitter wx guy...pretty respectable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 1:53 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Twitter wx guy...pretty respectable Expand Does Cranky have any biases you are aware? Gotta love the name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 2:00 AM, White Gorilla said: Does Cranky have any biases you are aware? Gotta love the name. Expand Dudes usually hyper conservative and is by far not a weenie....also Bernie rayno agreed..gonwatch his vid...it’s interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I have to agree with this cranky guy I think this is a 4 inch snow event for Central Park followed by some sleet and freezing rain turning to rain. I think the CAD signature is always undermodeled and it ends up dropping the rain snow line way south of modeled. Obviously it will warm up but is this colder trend done trending? Besides the flurries we may get tomorrow around noon is a fresh batch of cold air from that vort that’s currently located between Illinois and Indiana. I think this overperforms. Billy you’re looking at a solid 7 inches. There won’t be any virga with this it’ll be like a wall of heavy snow for several hours dropping temps below freezing everywhere from eveporative cooling and dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 2:05 AM, WeatherFeen2000 said: I have to agree with this cranky guy I think this is a 4 inch snow event for Central Park followed by some sleet and freezing rain turning to rain. I think the CAD signature is always undermodeled and it ends up dropping the rain snow line way south of modeled. Obviously it will warm up but is this colder done trending? Besides the flurries we may get tomorrow around noon is a fresh batch of cold air from that fort that’s currently located between Illinois and Indiana. I think this overperforms. Billy you’re looking at a solid 7 inches. There won’t be any virga with this it’ll be like a wall of heavy snow for several hours dropping temps below freezing everywhere from eveporative cooling and dynamic cooling. Expand Man that sounds awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Man Nam looks really amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Nam is too warm we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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