UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 As of this morning most guidance drops appreciable snow 4-8/6-10+ across the interior, with 1-3" close the coast, recent runs have suggested a colder solution, while the Nam/euro remain on the warmer end of guidance...can the Cold injection outrun the southern vort? And will our SLP form over nyc? Or south like the ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 1:52 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: As of this morning most guidance drops appreciable snow 4-8/6-10+ across the interior, with 1-3" close the coast, recent runs have suggested a colder solution, while the Nam/euro remain on the warmer end of guidance...can the Cold injection outrun the southern vort? And will our SLP form over nyc? Or south like the ukie? Expand For the coast it’s all about getting this to speed up. 1-3” can be fairly impactful if it happens right before and during rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 2:04 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: For the coast it’s all about getting this to speed up. 1-3” can be fairly impactful if it happens right before and during rush hour Expand Would need a bid speed up as of now, models bring this in around 18z (1pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 2:09 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Would need a bid speed up as of now, models bring this in around 18z (1pm) Expand If that’s the case I would wouldn’t expect any snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 2:10 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: If that’s the case I would wouldn’t expect any snow for the coast. Expand Best chance imo is front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Swfe events almost always favor interior, especially with no real injection of cold to. Play with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Albany is tossing warmer/Nam solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Nams a nice front dump for interior before changing to mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I wonder if the precip will come in faster than modeled. That will help the whole area, especially the coast. I do think that this will be a mostly rain event for the coast but a mix inland and mostly snow for the far interior areas near Albany. It all depends on where the low ends up tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 2:55 PM, Snow88 said: I wonder if the precip will come in faster than modeled. That will help the whole area, especially the coast. I do think that this will be a mostly rain event for the coast but a mix inland and mostly snow for the far interior areas near Albany. It all depends on where the low ends up tracking. Expand Agreed, but i dont think you need to go all the way to albany to see all snow from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 GFS fairly unchanged, north of 84 is all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 GFS looks great for a thump before it switches to rain for areas just to the north and west of NYC. Far interior areas stay all snow on the GFS If only we had a high up north. This would have been a good storm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Spits out 6-7 inches over CT, even down to the coast. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 3:47 PM, Snow88 said: GFS looks great for a thump before it switches to rain for areas just to the north and west of NYC. Far interior areas stay all snow on the GFS If only we had a high up north. This would have been a good storm for everyone. Expand you city guys lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 3:47 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS fairly unchanged, north of 84 is all snow Expand The marker for this event will be I-84.. North of there looking good, south of there a mix is inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 3:58 PM, snywx said: The marker for this event will be I-84.. North of there looking good, south of there a mix is inevitable. Expand as is tradition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 4:00 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Expand I spoke too soon Great run for areas in the interior =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 4:02 PM, Snow88 said: I spoke too soon Great run for areas in the interior =) Expand im just busting balls...lol idc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Since I've moved here the traditional line for a mix runs from the Western Orange County/Sussex County border. North of there primarily stays all snow, south of there mixes. Hopefully we get one more cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 4:06 PM, nesussxwx said: Since I've moved here the traditional line for a mix runs from the Western Orange County/Sussex County border. North of there primarily stays all snow, south of there mixes. Hopefully we get one more cool down. Expand Expecting 6-8" here with some ip/zr. Areas of Sullivan/W Ulster should be in the 8-12" jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 4:06 PM, nesussxwx said: Since I've moved here the traditional line for a mix runs from the Western Orange County/Sussex County border. North of there primarily stays all snow, south of there mixes. Hopefully we get one more cool down. Expand The ole' 287 cut-off used to be the mix line. I remember driving anywhere from 5-10 minutes down the road (big change in elevation) and there would be very little accumulation/wet snow. By me, it was all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Should continue trending warmer, there's nothing to stop it from doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 4:14 PM, snywx said: Expecting 6-8" here with some ip/zr. Areas of Sullivan/W Ulster should be in the 8-12" jackpot. Expand I really think, (if the gfs were right) this line pushes a little further south, its not an impressive warm nose, were talking 1 Degree C just above the surface giving us the freezing rain signal, as was the last storm our cold is usually undersold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 4:19 PM, SnoSki14 said: Should continue trending warmer, there's nothing to stop it from doing so. Expand continue?...wrong way bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 4:20 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I really think, (if the gfs were right) this line pushes a little further south, its not an impressive warm nose, were talking 1 Degree C just above the surface giving us the freezing rain signal, as was the last storm our cold is usually undersold Expand Agreed. Cold def over performed with yesterdays event. Never got above 32°. Upton going with 8-12" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 the warm nose is def more impressive on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 4:25 PM, snywx said: Agreed. Cold def over performed with yesterdays event. Never got above 32°. Upton going with 8-12" IMBY Expand wow, theyre going bold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/5/2018 at 4:27 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: wow, theyre going bold Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 psst. the mid levels can trend warmer while the sfc trends colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.