BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Just dropped into the 30s here in Stafford....now 39/26, hoping for a bit of ice. High was 42 (forecast was for 49)....we will see what transpires. I want to believe we have a bit of ice, but just don’t feel good about it. Northern Stafford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: A few patches of blue sky now...As Eskimo said, that could make a big dif. If temps make it below 30 tonight it could be an interesting morning. I wonder if the 850's can hold out long enough for a little snow before the flip to mix and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormpc said: 39/26 West of Woobridge, clouds breaking up. Cold funneling in. It would be crazy luck on our part if we kept this cold all day and then the clouds broke up enough to let the temperature cool before they fill back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It would be crazy luck on our part if we kept this cold all day and then the clouds broke up enough to let the temperature cool before they fill back in. If the highs busted low then just maybe lows can bust high. A couple degrees in this setup makes all difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: If the highs busted low then just maybe lows can bust high. A couple degrees in this setup makes all difference. Well we don’t have as far to fall. I thought I would be at 45 or so right now. Still mostly cloudy but there are some blue cracks. Really splitting hairs on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Northern Stafford? Southern Stafford, about 5 miles NW of Falmouth our route 17. Lots of cracks in clouds/clear skies showing up around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Well we don’t have as far to fall. I thought I would be at 45 or so right now. Still mostly cloudy but there are some blue cracks. Really splitting hairs on this one Honestly, I expected to be sitting in the mid to upper forties around now waiting for a rain storm. A pleasant surprise so far even if it doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: MM's of ice I guess? Sleet pellets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Southern Stafford, about 5 miles NW of Falmouth our route 17. Lots of cracks in clouds/clear skies showing up around here. We need you as cold as possible for us further north...I have no idea if that matters but it can hurt. I will boil a chicken foot and some witches chin hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Good or bad? I am thinking good because amped and west would be bad..talk to me sir He says not a big deal now but we'll see where we at at midnight lol. Won't help us get snow but could give us a better angle ha There's almost no chance for a surprise dude. Not saying models are perfect, but when have you seen a drastic change in like 6 - 10 hour leads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We need you as cold as possible for us further north...I have no idea if that matters but it can hurt. I will boil a chicken foot and some witches chin hair Brined the heck out of the roads around here, even with no WWA issued. Guess after it all got washed away Sunday, needed to rebrine to meet a quota or something. Just ticked a degree down to 38/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Overcast. 34/20. Winds N at 7. Baro still rising at 30.39” Not counting on much clearing by the looks of satellite. But air pressure and wind direction are a plus heading into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: There's almost no chance for a surprise dude. Not saying models are perfect, but when have you seen a drastic change in like 6 - 10 hour leads? Never. Bigger concern is if we get precip early enough. You did say almost...that leaves the door cracked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Overcast. 34/20. Winds N at 7. Baro still rising at 30.39” Not counting on much clearing by the looks of satellite. But air pressure and wind direction are a plus heading into the evening.Good point about the baro. 18z nam showed a better press of the HP. Hoping we don't lull tho... Usually that is the end or very close to the end of wintry precip. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: There's almost no chance for a surprise dude. Not saying models are perfect, but when have you seen a drastic change in like 6 - 10 hour leads? I've woken up 6 hours after I went to bed expecting at least an inch or 2 on the ground only to see depressing brown grass and fresh deer pellets on my lawn more than once. So yea, I've been burned at 6-10 hour leads plenty of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I've woken up 6 hours after I went to bed expecting at least an inch or 2 on the ground only to see depressing brown grass and fresh deer pellets on my lawn more than once. So yea, I've been burned at 6-10 hour leads plenty of times. I mean a huge wholesale change. Like instead of mostly rain, we all get like 4 to 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I've woken up 6 hours after I went to bed expecting at least an inch or 2 on the ground only to see depressing brown grass and fresh deer pellets on my lawn more than once. So yea, I've been burned at 6-10 hour leads plenty of times. I think he meant positive change. Negative change we have done at much shorter leads. Snow 3-7 inches...Snow likely 2-4 inches..Chance snow 1-2 inches...slight chance snow less than half inch possible...all in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: I mean a huge wholesale change. Like instead of mostly rain, we all get like 4 to 8 inches. Oh, you mean positive bust...yea I saw that once about 18 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Not that I am really tracking this or interested in the least lol, but the high here was 40 with a lot of mid/high clouds but also a decent amount of sun. Pretty clear right now. Temp has dropped to 32 with a dp of 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 -6c 850s over us extending due westward to Indiana Baro still rising, winds north component and precip mass down south moving ene and not ne-nne would call every one of these good sign for frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: -6c 850s over us extending due westward to Indiana Baro still rising, winds north component and precip mass down south moving ene and not ne-nne would call every one of these good sign for frozen I agree with what you pointed out. But like tracker said positive change at short leads is not something we do well. And so far these positive facts seem to be absent on the models. I guess we will know soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Down to 31 / 24 with a north wind at 3 You have some great climo up there. Best location in the forum. I think you will do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 34/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 If Fairfax County decides puss out tomorrow, my wife is going to lose her sh*t. Thats pretty much it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 30/22 also with a NW wind. Sky was clear when I got home around 5. Saw a nice sunset . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristymac03 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 33/21 here in Urbana. Wind ENE @2mph. Hoping for something here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Skies are clearing some here. 34/23. That’s all I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Precip seems to moving more NE. Not sure that initial ENE movement really meant too much. Looked back at the meso models and that initial ENE move was evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/961024935559942146 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Sky is clearing up here in Alexandria with a light NE breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.