RevWarReenactor Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Serious question, does not reaching the high temp really mean anything in the long run? I feel like I've seen situations where we don't reach our high, but it makes no difference. However, I've also seen it where we go over our high temp, and it works against us. I think we had this last year where it was like 67 degrees and suppose to snow the next day, and the atmosphere just couldn't make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 My house is at 34. High was 41. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Serious question, does not reaching the high temp really mean anything in the long run? I feel like I've seen situations where we don't reach our high, but it makes no difference. However, I've also seen it where we go over our high temp, and it works against us. I think we had this last year where it was like 67 degrees and suppose to snow the next day, and the atmosphere just couldn't make it happen. Not that I know anything but I'd say that not having the sun heat the roads is going to have meaningful impacts potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Serious question, does not reaching the high temp really mean anything in the long run? I feel like I've seen situations where we don't reach our high, but it makes no difference. However, I've also seen it where we go over our high temp, and it works against us. I think we had this last year where it was like 67 degrees and suppose to snow the next day, and the atmosphere just couldn't make it happen. Dude, what are you looking for? Seriously, every post from you is a downer. Lower temps now mean nothing, or something. But in the short term, it means less to do to get back to freezing. And while no one on the I-95 line is expecting a ton, every little bit helps toward making something interesting in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Dude, what are you looking for? Seriously, every post from you is a downer. Lower temps now mean nothing, or something. But in the short term, it means less to do to get back to freezing. And while no one on the I-95 line is expecting a ton, every little bit helps toward making something interesting in the morning. It was not a downer. It was an honest question about the storm. Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 In Thurmont it's 33 dew point 21. Sunday we did alright, 3" of snow and a lot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 With no sun today there is still a significant amount of ice on the trees around here...not so much in lower elevations but not too far up the mountain. I didnt stop to measure but I would say there is close to .2" still on the trees. Another .2-.4 could start causing some issues on the ridges and higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Mdecoy said: It was not a downer. It was an honest question about the storm. Stop. I agree that it was a fair question, and I like Jandurin's response. It likely doesn't mean much for where the thermometer will be in the morning, but it may mean a lot with regards to impact. Had we had full sun and mid 40's today, roads, sidewalks, and trees would have gotten warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I am at 33/22 right now. My high today was 34 after a forecast high of 41. It is going to be a mess out here in the morning. We lucked out on the temps due to the heavy cloud cover all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Serious question, does not reaching the high temp really mean anything in the long run? I feel like I've seen situations where we don't reach our high, but it makes no difference. However, I've also seen it where we go over our high temp, and it works against us. I think we had this last year where it was like 67 degrees and suppose to snow the next day, and the atmosphere just couldn't make it happen. it does if you want to stay frozen longer. much easier to get to 32 and snow from a high of 34 vs a high of mid-40s. and impacts are greater when its been colder longer than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Serious question, does not reaching the high temp really mean anything in the long run? I feel like I've seen situations where we don't reach our high, but it makes no difference. However, I've also seen it where we go over our high temp, and it works against us. I think we had this last year where it was like 67 degrees and suppose to snow the next day, and the atmosphere just couldn't make it happen. Solar heat flux on the ground is something to keep an eye on prior to any icing event. Keeps the ground and surrounding surfaces colder in general. I think the main roads will be fine (For the most part), but sidewalks and untreated surfaces can go prior to sunrise if not treated. The real question is how far do temps dip tonight and response of the dew point. Still have the high to the north in place to keep the cold air in for a time in the morning. We'll see the warm front approach by late-morning time frame, and it comes down to how far north can it go. A strong surface inversion is tough to whittle away unless you have a front roll through, or solid winds out of southerly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: With no sun today there is still a significant amount of ice on the trees around here...not so much in lower elevations but not too far up the mountain. I didnt stop to measure but I would say there is close to .2" still on the trees. Another .2-.4 could start causing some issues on the ridges and higher elevations. Yeah. When I was coming over the Blue Ridge earlier this afternoon I noticed all of the trees are still encased in ice. It could be a real problem up there tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: I am at 33/22 right now. My high today was 34 after a forecast high of 41. It is going to be a mess out here in the morning. We lucked out on the temps due to the heavy cloud cover all day. Assuming we get significant precip. I'd like to have some snow. If not, I'd just soon the precip be light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Assuming we get significant precip. I'd like to have some snow. If not, I'd just soon the precip be light. light freezing rain is the worst. would rather have sub-32 and a downpour where most runs off, then sub-32 and a freezing drizzle where every drop freezes on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Dp in Gaithersburg down to 21...was 25 at lunchtime. Winds picking up a bit out of the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 18z NAM gets freezing rain into N VA by 08z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 quite the bump in ice totals from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: I was in several cockeysville residential developments today and still saw ice on trees there at noon. I also saw many big branches down and some above ground telephone and cable wires down . They must have gotten close to warning criteria accretion there. Pretty impressive when temps were 30 - 32 F and moderate zrain for that Sunday event there. Agree..it won't take much for impacts for areas that already got hit hard with ice Sun. The ice hasn't melted off the trees near Patapsco Valley SP near West Friendship. Surface are still cold so power outages are a possibility tomorrow morning. RWIS shows road temps generally 36 - 45 degrees so roads should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I was in several cockeysville residential developments today and still saw ice on trees there at noon. I also saw many big branches down and some above ground telephone and cable wires down . They must have gotten close to warning criteria accretion there. Pretty impressive when temps were 30 - 32 F and moderate zrain for that Sunday event there. Agree..it won't take much for impacts for areas that already got hit hard with ice Sun. That is impressive...I was at a customer's home who lives at the top off Braddock Mtn today. Had some sig damage to his white pines...Although, they seem to be the first to go in an ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 quite the bump in ice totals from LWX Not sure why they cut totals along DC, guess they don’t trust the temps to drop low enough for it to matter. 12k NAM jackpotted DC though. Tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not sure why they cut totals along DC so hard... guess they don’t trust the temps to drop low enough for it to matter. 12k NAM jackpotted DC though. Tough forecast. probably because DC won't see all that much ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, mappy said: probably because DC won't see all that much ice? 18z NAM suggests 0.10-0.15 ice for DCA... so I guess it will be a close call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not sure why they cut totals along DC, guess they don’t trust the temps to drop low enough for it to matter. 12k NAM jackpotted DC though. Tough forecast. That is mentioned in the AFD: " Will have to monitor the Virginia Piedmont near I-95 and Charles County in southern Maryland. A light glaze of ice from freezing rain is possible across these areas as well...but confidence is not high enough for an advisory. There is some uncertainty as to how far south and east the wintry precipitation will make it and also temperatures will be marginal as well. Will re-assess this evening with the latest guidance. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Colder trend on the NAM. Pushes meaningful freezing rain further south and east through the Metro. Not surprised given the locstion of the High. Just need precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: That is mentioned in the AFD: " Will have to monitor the Virginia Piedmont near I-95 and Charles County in southern Maryland. A light glaze of ice from freezing rain is possible across these areas as well...but confidence is not high enough for an advisory. There is some uncertainty as to how far south and east the wintry precipitation will make it and also temperatures will be marginal as well. Will re-assess this evening with the latest guidance. " that is for the areas directly SE of the current WWA where there isn't a WWA in effect... not for the DC region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 18z NAM suggests 0.10-0.15 ice for DCA... so I guess it will be a close call nice bump on the NAM then. I also don't pay much attention to what DC gets or doesn't get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 As far as the warmer temperatures question. With the higher temps you also normally get a responding bump with the Dew Point. So when you are counting on evaporational cooling the higher dew points can really hurt in a marginal situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, losetoa6 said: Currently 33/23 with a north wind. If we can get that dew down to the 18 - 22 range and a bit of clearing this evening we're looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 All of the hi-res models have a break in the precip ranging from 1-3 hours during the morning - a break between the initial warm advection shot and the frontal band. Unclear if drizzle/freezing drizzle would persist during that break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.