Interstate Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Forecast high of 45 at Gaithersburg...sitting at 35. The bigger question is what is the dew point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 What does the Euro look like in terms of total precip out our way before 10am? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: The bigger question is what is the dew point? 24...wish it was a bit lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 33/25 in Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 WWA's for everything. why they do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Clouds thick across the region...doubt we see any meaningful sun as we approach 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: WWA's for everything. why they do that if you were to ask mdecoy, he would say its stupid. in reality, it makes the most sense. chance of frozen anything during rush hour = advisory. need moar snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 i don't think the dews should rise much if any with that high in place. i'm actually a little more interested in this setup than i was yesterday. could end up with a better chance of a prolonged snow/sleet mix than the other day, which was a lot of nothing here aside from much needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What does the Euro look like in terms of total precip out our way before 10am? Thanks. Around .15 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 LWX hoists winter storm warning for Allegany, Washington, Berkeley, Mineral, Hampshire and Morgan counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 yes finally a WSW! Well not offically but im so close to washington and Berkeley county that ill accept this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I don't see a single model that supports the totals in that WSW. Hope LWX is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: I don't see a single model that supports the totals in that WSW. Hope LWX is on to something. I get the sense they are banking on the models missing the low-level cold. Not sure I agree, but I think they feel like they went too low on Sunday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Yikes URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 200 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 MDZ003-501-502-WVZ050>052-503-504-070300- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.180207T0800Z-180207T1900Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0002.180207T0800Z-180207T2100Z/ Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 200 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of a coating to around 2 inches. The highest amounts of snow and sleet will be near the Mason-Dixon Line. Ice accumulation around a quarter up to one-half inch. The highest ice accumulation will be along the ridge tops over 1000 feet. * WHERE...Western Maryland...portions of the eastern Panhandle and Allegheny Highlands of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and sleet will overspread the area between 1 am and 5 am early Wednesday morning. Precipitation will change to all freezing rain by 10 am before ending Wednesday afternoon. Power outages and tree damage are possible due to ice accretion. The ice will result in difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, paxpatriot said: I get the sense they are banking on the models missing the low-level cold. Not sure I agree, but I think they feel like they went too low on Sunday's storm. I like your location to approach the numbers from LWX better than mine. That 20 miles or so north makes a big difference sometimes in systems like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I don't see a single model that supports the totals in that WSW. Hope LWX is on to something. C-2 of snow/sleet .25-.5 of ice I think most models have the low end of both of those for your area, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 200 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 MDZ004-VAZ028-031-WVZ053-070300- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.180207T0800Z-180207T1900Z/ Frederick MD-Frederick VA-Clarke-Jefferson- 200 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of a coating to an inch expected and ice accumulations around two tenths of an inch expected. * WHERE...Frederick County in north-central Maryland...Clarke and Frederick Counties in Virginia...and Jefferson County in West Virginia. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 2 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow...sleet and freezing rain will overspread the area between 1 am and 5 am early Wednesday morning. Precipitation will change to all freezing rain by mid- morning before ending as a mixture of rain and freezing Rain Wednesday afternoon. The ice will result in difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, WVclimo said: I don't see a single model that supports the totals in that WSW. Hope LWX is on to something. I think the NAM's do. Of course, I only casually glanced at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Around .15 or so. Thanks. The euro always seems to be the stingiest with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 It would be awesome if we somehow got clearing just after sunset and temps dropped by like 3 or 4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 12z WRF-ARW crushes W MD into C MD on its snow/sleet map lol -- can't see the Ferrier on TT 12z WRF-ARW2 is a bit more reasonable in NW MD into C MD... but gets the 2" snow/sleet line towards I-95 -- Ferrier n/a on TT either for this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, mappy said: C-2 of snow/sleet .25-.5 of ice I think most models have the low end of both of those for your area, no? 12Z NAM is close with the amount of precip that falls and time spent <32. Cant imagine even with that solution that much ice would accrete with moderate+ precip rates and temps 30+ during the day. 3k NAM is drier in my yard, less than 0.25" while temps hold. Euro drops about 0.25" total as frozen. GFS is hard to tell with the big jump in temps between 12Z and 18Z. RGEM keeps most of the frozen above the M/D line. I am pulling for LWX though. Would love to meet WSW criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Haven’t broke 40 yet... forecast high was mid forties. 39/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 12Z NAM is close with the amount of precip that falls and time spent <32. Cant imagine even with that solution that much ice would accrete with moderate+ precip rates and temps 30+ during the day. 3k NAM is drier in my yard, less than 0.25" while temps hold. Euro drops about 0.25" total as frozen. GFS is hard to tell with the big jump in temps between 12Z and 18Z. RGEM keeps most of the frozen above the M/D line. I am pulling for LWX though. Would love to meet WSW criteria. Sounds like a tough forecast either way. Rooting for you! I know you guys have had it rough this winter, rougher than the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Sounds like a tough forecast either way. Rooting for you! I know you guys have had it rough this winter, rougher than the rest of us. My yard was a good spot on Sunday morning. I usually do pretty well in these types of storms given how effectively the cold can hold on here. But even on Sunday we didn't get much ice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 25 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z WRF-ARW crushes W MD into C MD on its snow/sleet map lol -- can't see the Ferrier on TT 12z WRF-ARW2 is a bit more reasonable in NW MD into C MD... but gets the 2" snow/sleet line towards I-95 -- Ferrier n/a on TT either for this run this definitely has a cad feel. chilly out there right now with a cold front making an entrance this afternoon. just gotta hope we stay on the good side of the boundary as the front lifts back north later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, WVclimo said: My yard was a good spot on Sunday morning. I usually do pretty well in these types of storms given how effectively the cold can hold on here. But even on Sunday we didn't get much ice accumulation. cold held on for quite a while IMBY Sunday. I think it was late afternoon or so when I finally got above 32. But it was raining pretty hard after the initial layer of snow/sleet, that the freezing rain only stuck so much. most ran off. still, schools closed yesterday so that may bode well for my future tomorrow morning, and whether i get to sleep in or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 33/23 at home. forecast high was 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 28 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z WRF-ARW crushes W MD into C MD on its snow/sleet map lol -- can't see the Ferrier on TT 12z WRF-ARW2 is a bit more reasonable in NW MD into C MD... but gets the 2" snow/sleet line towards I-95 -- Ferrier n/a on TT either for this run minor point, but the Ferrier method is based on the Ferrier-Aligo microphysics which are only in NMMB models. The ARW models use the Thompson microphysics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 55 in richmond right now. dividing line isn't too far south. probably more so a boundary than cad. tough forecast tomorrow morning for those who get paid to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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