SlamSlam Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 This is such a beaten horse topic. In this area, and in general. school systems are going to err on the side of caution. Why do you let it bother you? The volume in this area makes even a rainy rush hour a nightmare, so look at it as a win for those that have to go to work. Not a win for those of us with kids who have to work and need to try and find a last minute solution for babysitting. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The 12K and 3K are pretty serious ice storms out this way. It is basically a sleet bomb followed by some freezing rain. And high temps are going to bust today with the cloud cover already in place. My forecast high is 41 and I am at 30 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The WWA is pretty bullish on the snow forecast IMO. I would love to see 2 inches up front. But I dont see that happening: MDZ003-004-501-502-VAZ028-031-WVZ050>053-503-504-062330- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.180207T0800Z-180207T1900Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Extreme Western Allegany- Central and Eastern Allegany-Frederick VA-Clarke-Hampshire-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 1018 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches expected and ice accumulations around two tenths of an inch expected. Ice accumulations around one-quarter of an inch cannot be ruled out across portions of the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia and western Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Mdecoy said: Yeah, western areas are a different story. But I think its crazy that kids literally pull school closures out of wet roads and we get advisories off this. you've been told why there are advisories, if you have an issue with it, please contact LWX personally with your complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 For those of you complaining about the WWA. The 12Z RGEM says there is justification for it. And dont forget it did very well with the precip types in Sundays storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Timing of onset on the GFS better matches the RGEM instead of the 3km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: This is such a beaten horse topic. In this area, and in general. school systems are going to err on the side of caution. Why do you let it bother you? The volume in this area makes even a rainy rush hour a nightmare, so look at it as a win for those that have to go to work. I agree with you. Since moving to this area I have realized that it is just not equipped as well as the states who get events more during winter. I just yesterday had to alert my HOA of the horrible conditions of the bus stop my girls have to walk to. I drove them up and with a 2 hr. delay the condition of the untreated stop at 9:25am just gets me in a huff. This is one of the reasons the school systems pull the trigger so fast. There is just not enough equipment to keep up on it. I remember living in OH and seeing the salt trucks with plows just sitting at various areas waiting for the first bit of winter weather to drop. I have learned to just accept the delays, my kids don't seem to be making a stink over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Timing of onset on the GFS better matches the RGEM instead of the 3km NAM. Yep, and hence it verifies the WAA around DC with ~.05in of accretion. When it comes to verifying this “event” I think it’s pretty clear that start time is gonna be the main factor. We should have the cold needed to accrete, especially given what looks like to be a temp bust today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Timing of onset on the GFS better matches the RGEM instead of the 3km NAM. Yes! The TT site for the NAM3 only has precip rate and 1km reflectivity. If you look at NAM3 *composite* reflectivity on a different site, it does have echoes over us. That means that the NAM3 is trying to precipitate here, but it's not reaching the ground which is a common bias of that model. I would probably reject its idea of a dry rush hour for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: For those of you complaining about the WWA. The 12Z RGEM says there is justification for it. And dont forget it did very well with the precip types in Sundays storm: Yeah and those complaining were posting snowfall maps. I don't think the WWA for the eastern areas is driven by snow as much as the ice potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Updated morning LWX AFD: .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The wintry mess will continue Wednesday morning. Locations receiving a mixed bag of snow and sleet or a mix of sleet and freezing rain will transition quickly over to a mix of freezing rain and rain Wednesday morning. Most, if not all, locations should transition over to all rain Wednesday afternoon as temperatures climb out of the 30s into 40s and a warm front proceeds to the northeast. The most ice accretion is expected across north- central and western Maryland and the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia. A quarter inch of ice is possible and the advisory may need to be upgraded to a warning across these areas. Will re- assess 12z guidance this afternoon. Rain amounts could average one half to three quarters of an inch. A low pressure system is expected to pass through the region during the midday and afternoon hours, thus pulling milder air into and ahead of it. Seasonable temperatures expected Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 the angle of precipitation doesn’t look too good. The high res models are showing the onset of precip really limited to eastern areas. Most of the area prob won’t see anything until well after school has started. And if that even happens, it will likely be a brief period of freezing rain changing into rain. If the radar looks like the image above at 4am tomorrow, then schools will start on time. As someone who lives in fairfax, they didnt delay or close on Monday, while every other county in the area did. So I’m hoping for something tomorrow wink wink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Mordecai said: the angle of precipitation doesn’t look too good. The high res models are showing the onset of precip really limited to eastern areas. Most of the area prob won’t see anything until well after school has started. And if that even happens, it will likely be a brief period of freezing rain changing into rain. If the radar looks like the image above at 4am tomorrow, then schools will start on time. As someone who lives in fairfax, they didnt delay or close on Monday, while every other county in the area did. So I’m hoping for something tomorrow wink wink High Risk mentioned above that NAM on TT doesn't show initial precip very well, so its possible there is precip overhead during those time frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: We've seen this song and dance before, and everytime, the usual suspects still manage to cash out on some ice. For me, if the surface winds do not generate what the model output is giving us for tomorrow, then it's going to be another "playing catch-up" with advisories as ice lingers longer than forecast. I'm not super keen on a carbon copy of Sunday, but this one could sneak up on a ton of people. Like you said, if we finish today colder than forecast due to lack of solar heating, it could be more interesting than one would hope as a forecaster. You can I are on the same page with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, mappy said: High Risk mentioned above that NAM on TT doesn't show initial precip very well, so its possible there is precip overhead during those time frames. I didn't do a great job of explaining it, but that's on the right track. The NAM3 is doing a poor job of getting the initial precip to reach the ground before evaporating, as it often does. I always look at composite reflectivity in these scenarios, as if I see precip in the NAM3 there, I know that it's probably showing its usual bias with it incorrectly failing to reach the ground. (And I can't look at composite reflectivity on TT; I can only look at 1 km reflectivity and precip rate which won't show me what I need to see.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, high risk said: I didn't do a great job of explaining it, but that's on the right track. The NAM3 is doing a poor job of getting the initial precip to reach the ground before evaporating, as it often does. I always look at composite reflectivity in these scenarios, as if I see precip in the NAM3 there, I know that it's probably showing its usual bias with it incorrectly failing to reach the ground. (And I can't look at composite reflectivity on TT; I can only look at 1 km reflectivity and precip rate which won't show me what I need to see.) thank you! i probably explained your initial post incorrectly, so appreciate the follow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 26 minutes ago, Mordecai said: the angle of precipitation doesn’t look too good. The high res models are showing the onset of precip really limited to eastern areas. Most of the area prob won’t see anything until well after school has started. And if that even happens, it will likely be a brief period of freezing rain changing into rain. If the radar looks like the image above at 4am tomorrow, then schools will start on time. As someone who lives in fairfax, they didnt delay or close on Monday, while every other county in the area did. So I’m hoping for something tomorrow wink wink This isn't true. Yes, the NAM3 is dry, but that's the only hi-res model failing to get that initial wave of precip to the surface. The RGEM, HRRR extension, and the Hi-Res Windows do have precip reaching the ground for much of the metro area by rush hour. The NAM3 is an outlier and it's showing its common bias, so banking on that is not where I'd put my money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, high risk said: This isn't true. Yes, the NAM3 is dry, but that's the only hi-res model failing to get that initial wave of precip to the surface. The RGEM, HRRR extension, and the Hi-Res Windows do have precip reaching the ground for much of the metro area by rush hour. The NAM3 is an outlier and it's showing its common bias, so banking on that is not where I'd put my money. What model is that based off of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: What model is that based off of? Those are on TT as WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, and WRF-NMM (actually mislabeled; it's NMMB). These are ~3km regional runs initialized by the RAP. The WRF-ARW and WRF-ARW2 (the NCEP equivalent of the NSSL-WRF) in particular do pretty well. TT only has the 00z cycles so far today, but the NCEP MAG site shows that the 12z cycles have precip over much of the area by rush hour tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, high risk said: Those are on TT as WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, and WRF-NMM (actually mislabeled; it's NMMB). These are ~3km regional runs initialized by the RAP. The WRF-ARW and WRF-ARW2 (the NCEP equivalent of the NSSL-WRF) in particular do pretty well. TT only has the 00z cycles so far today, but the NCEP MAG site shows that the 12z cycles have precip over much of the area by rush hour tomorrow. The WRF-NMM or NMMB in particular has some ice for almost everyone west of 95..the other two have precip as you mentioned by 10z...I never look at those as I have this mental bias they are not reliable. not sure why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: The WRF-NMM or NMMB in particular has some serious ice for almost everyone west of 95..the other two have precip as you mentioned by 10z...I never look at those as I have this mental bias they are not reliable. not sure why Define 'serious'...more than 0.3"? Where are you seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Define 'serious'...more than 0.3"? Where are you seeing this? I removed serious earlier. I can self edit. just ice on the NMMB and around the 11-14z timeframe... On TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Euro has a band of light snow through DC prior to 7am. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Euro has some light snow across DC around 10-11z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro has a band of light snow through DC prior to 7am. Nice. Woo! Will I be able to tack on another 0.2” and break 8” on the season!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 22 minutes ago, yoda said: Euro has some light snow across DC around 10-11z Dare I ask... but what the heck...what happens after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 34/24 at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: 34/24 at home Forecast high of 45 at Gaithersburg...sitting at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Unless the sun makes an appearance today I’m not sure temps will budge much with a N breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Woo! Will I be able to tack on another 0.2” and break 8” on the season!?! If not tomorrow then maybe on Monday. Euro has an anafront dusting now so .2 is possible but it might take 2 events if tomorrow AM doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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