February 7th Snow To Rain Event

[gymengineer]

We've always had WWA's for wintry mix and freezing rain. This isn't something new...

[H2O]

Stick to stocks, james

[RevWarReenactor]

Why is everything I say so WRONG?

This is the official forecast. Its way over done for what is expected in eastern areas, which is basically nothing.

[North Balti Zen]

42 minutes ago, mappy said:

either this whole event is nada, or its a northern tier special that no one wants to talk about. 

I guess a combo of both. And apparently bobc and psu and a few others are stepping back for now because the looks are so not great, but I still think this will be a decent icy event for your area.

[smokeybandit]

"

* what... mixed precipitation expected. Total wet snow
  accumulations of up to half inch and ice accumulations of a 
  trace to less than one tenth of an inch are expected.

"

An advisory for that?  So basically schools are going to be delayed or canceled tomorrow for literally nothing

[mappy]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

I guess a combo of both. And apparently bobc and psu and a few others are stepping back for now because the looks are so not great, but I still think this will be a decent icy event for your area.

yup, looks like a fun morning on tap for me tomorrow. sorry to hear others are not so thrilled with how things are going. eh. 

[Jandurin]

It's the timing of the event, not the event itself, that warrants the advisory.

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

"

* what... mixed precipitation expected. Total wet snow
  accumulations of up to half inch and ice accumulations of a 
  trace to less than one tenth of an inch are expected.

"

An advisory for that?  So basically schools are going to be delayed or canceled tomorrow for literally nothing

It's rush hour, so that's a standard issue advisory. It wouldn't take much for the roads to be an issue with lots of cars out and about.

[gymengineer]

Just now, Jandurin said:

It's the timing of the event, not the event itself, that warrants the advisory.

That option is just for snow-- 1" at rush hour vs. the normal 2" threshold. Any freezing rain in the forecast has consistently yielded WWA's in the past, regardless of time of day. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Freezing rain has always been an advisory level event regardless of whether it's rush hour.

[RevWarReenactor]

Okay, maybe it is SOP for the NWS, I apologize. Still think that the official forecast in eastern areas of 0.0 inches of snow and .000000004 (exaggerating) inches of ice (which is essentially wet roads 99.9% of the time) is very Atlantaish.

I hope and pray I am totally wrong and this does end of warranting a WWA.

 

[Jandurin]

I hope it's just rain.

[mattie g]

20 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

"

* what... mixed precipitation expected. Total wet snow
  accumulations of up to half inch and ice accumulations of a 
  trace to less than one tenth of an inch are expected.

"

An advisory for that?  So basically schools are going to be delayed or canceled tomorrow for literally nothing

So you think our children are nothing? Get out of here, YOU HEARTLESS B@STARD!!!

[smokeybandit]

My son actually gets mad when he has a school delay and there's nothing outside to show for it.

[nw baltimore wx]

51 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Why is everything I say so WRONG?

This is the official forecast. Its way over done for what is expected in eastern areas, which is basically nothing.

 

41 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

"* what... mixed precipitation expected. Total wet snow

  accumulations of up to half inch and ice accumulations of a 
  trace to less than one tenth of an inch are expected."

An advisory for that?  So basically schools are going to be delayed or canceled tomorrow for literally nothing

Did you guys look at the advisories?  LWX has issued four different advisories based on location.  Eastern areas expire at 10AM, another out west along the ridges at 11AM, then 1PM and 2PM for the normal areas east of the BR that don't usually warm in these events.

[RevWarReenactor]

17 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

 

Did you guys look at the advisories?  LWX has issued four different advisories based on location.  Eastern areas expire at 10AM, another out west along the ridges at 11AM, then 1PM and 2PM for the normal areas east of the BR that don't usually warm in these events.

Yeah, western areas are a different story. But I think its crazy that kids literally pull school closures out of wet roads and we get advisories off this.

 

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

"

* what... mixed precipitation expected. Total wet snow
  accumulations of up to half inch and ice accumulations of a 
  trace to less than one tenth of an inch are expected.

"

An advisory for that?  So basically schools are going to be delayed or canceled tomorrow for literally nothing

You need to go and read up on the advisory criteria.  Since it is happening at rush hour.... there is a whole different set of criteria.

 

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/warningsdefined#Winter Weather Advisory

 

[smokeybandit]

Yes, I know "it's happening" at rush hour.   But when what happens ends up just being plain wet roads, yet schools are delayed/canceled yet again, it gets old.

[LP08]

Both NAMs look to be swings and misses with the early "thump" near the cities (mostly confined to Western MD).  

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Both NAMs look to be swings and misses with the early "thump" near the cities (mostly confined to Western MD).  

Not too much thumping tomorrow morning per this run. 

[nw baltimore wx]

9 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Yeah, western areas are a different story. But I think its crazy that kids literally pull school closures out of wet roads and we get advisories off this.

This is such a beaten horse topic.  In this area, and in general. school systems are going to err on the side of caution.  Why do you let it bother you?  The volume in this area makes even a rainy rush hour a nightmare, so look at it as a win for those that have to go to work. 

[high risk]

7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Both NAMs look to be swings and misses with the early "thump" near the cities (mostly confined to Western MD).  

      This really complicates the forecast a lot.    If that early round sets up further north, the kids in most of the area can get to school without problems.    And they'll be in school when the possible initial glazing occurs, and it will be above freezing by dismissal time.      But the NAMs can be dry with the onset of precip into a modestly dry air mass, so I'm not going to buy in fully unless the hi-res windows do the same.   

[MillvilleWx]

11 hours ago, high risk said:

      The schools will be in no-man's land for sure, but what's different here is that we'll probably hit 40 Tuesday and then only drop to a couple of degrees below freezing early Wednesday.  Saturday into Saturday night was considerably colder (and drier).   Thinking that the treated roads will be fine Wednesday, and glazing will be limited to trees and such (with temps as currently modeled).

I agree with everything. New NAM nest is holding off on precip again, so that certainly will help limit the icing potential if that comes to fruition. I think areas west of Rt 15 will be the ones back in the cross-hairs of any icing concerns. Our western folks out in Winchester to WV will see a more prolonged icing setup compared to east of Frederick. Ice just sucks to deal with during heavy commute times, and this one will be cutting it awfully close. 

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I agree with everything. New NAM nest is holding off on precip again, so that certainly will help limit the icing potential if that comes to fruition. I think areas west of Rt 15 will be the ones back in the cross-hairs of any icing concerns. Our western folks out in Winchester to WV will see a more prolonged icing setup compared to east of Frederick. Ice just sucks to deal with during heavy commute times, and this one will be cutting it awfully close. 

       I will say that I was banking on sun today and some heating, and I'm not as confident about that now.     While we still won't be starting from the cold state we did Sunday, the temperatures of untreated surfaces got cold last night and will be at risk of light icing tomorrow morning if we don't get some solar heating this afternoon.      But as you noted, questions about where the initial warm advection precip will set up complicates the forecast a LOT.

[NorthArlington101]

This is such a beaten horse topic.  In this area, and in general. school systems are going to err on the side of caution.  Why do you let it bother you?  The volume in this area makes even a rainy rush hour a nightmare, so look at it as a win for those that have to go to work. 

People are just mad that they don’t reap the benefits. Personally I really like the wimpy school districts.

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

      This really complicates the forecast a lot.    If that early round sets up further north, the kids in most of the area can get to school without problems.    And they'll be in school when the possible initial glazing occurs, and it will be above freezing by dismissal time.      But the NAMs can be dry with the onset of precip into a modestly dry air mass, so I'm not going to buy in fully unless the hi-res windows do the same.   

My Wife works in a Fairfax school so some ask her what I think (which isn't much!).  Would the below be a potential freezing drizzle sounding?  I know it says 33 but I included a larger area where micro climates could dictate above freezing and below freezing temps.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

Why is everything I say so WRONG?

This is the official forecast. Its way over done for what is expected in eastern areas, which is basically nothing.

Expected by whom?

You realize that the people at NWS aren't just looking at their favorite models on TT, right?  They have expertise in these matters that most of us here don't have.

Your interpretation of what is "expected" and what their interpretation is can be quite a bit different ........ because of the knowledge and skill level differences.

[smokeybandit]

12 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

This is such a beaten horse topic.  In this area, and in general. school systems are going to err on the side of caution.  Why do you let it bother you?  The volume in this area makes even a rainy rush hour a nightmare, so look at it as a win for those that have to go to work. 

Those who have to go to work...that don't have school-aged kids, yes.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

       I will say that I was banking on sun today and some heating, and I'm not as confident about that now.     While we still won't be starting from the cold state we did Sunday, the temperatures of untreated surfaces got cold last night and will be at risk of light icing tomorrow morning if we don't get some solar heating this afternoon.      But as you noted, questions about where the initial warm advection precip will set up complicates the forecast a LOT.

We've seen this song and dance before, and everytime, the usual suspects still manage to cash out on some ice. For me, if the surface winds do not generate what the model output is giving us for tomorrow, then it's going to be another "playing catch-up" with advisories as ice lingers longer than forecast. I'm not super keen on a carbon copy of Sunday, but this one could sneak up on a ton of people. Like you said, if we finish today colder than forecast due to lack of solar heating, it could be more interesting than one would hope as a forecaster. 

[Jandurin]

3 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Those who have to go to work...that don't have school-aged kids, yes.

School aged kids can fend for themselves!