MountainGeek Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, high risk said: That's because it's tallying sleet into the snow accumulation. Looking at the TT positive snow depth change is a lot more useful here. That's not to say there is no chance of a front end thump, as you noted that some of the Hi-Res Window runs are snowier; it's just that the NAM 10:1 snow accum maps here are telling a misleading story. Does the 3K NAM suffer from the same issue? It's juiced up quite a bit from 12Z, 10:1 looking good out here and in Mappyland (snow maps showing 6"). Total positive snowfall and Ferrier much less impressive at around 1"....so I'm guessing the reality is mostly sleet/mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Does the 3K NAM suffer from the same issue? It's juiced up quite a bit from 12Z, 10:1 looking good out here and in Mappyland (snow maps showing 6"). Total positive snowfall and Ferrier much less impressive at around 1"....so I'm guessing the reality is mostly sleet/mix. Pure 10:1 snow maps will soon be a thing of the past imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Wish I could change the scale of the Swiss model but here ya go. Very solid event up on the MD/PA border, decent if you get just outside of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Man I could really go for a nice morning thump on Wednesday to keep me at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Here's the 12z RGEM ensemble. I'm hugging the Swiss model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Wish I could change the scale of the Swiss model but here ya go. Very solid event up on the MD/PA border, decent if you get just outside of DC. Wow I'm not very familiar with the Swiss HD model --- is it actually trying to show a narrow precip shadow east of the BR/AT? First time I think I've ever seen that level of fine detail before for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Wow I'm not very familiar with the Swiss HD model --- is it actually trying to show a narrow precip shadow east of the BR/AT? First time I think I've ever seen that level of fine detail before for this area.It’s usually very detailed. It is “Super HD”. I usually glance at it without sharing, but since someone commented it did well last time figured I might as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 38 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Does the 3K NAM suffer from the same issue? It's juiced up quite a bit from 12Z, 10:1 looking good out here and in Mappyland (snow maps showing 6"). Total positive snowfall and Ferrier much less impressive at around 1"....so I'm guessing the reality is mostly sleet/mix. Yes, and the GFS too. The combination of tallying sleet and the blanket 10:1 inflate the snow totals a lot in these scenarios. The Ferrier and positive snowfall maps do a much better job accounting for what can really accumulate as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 RGEM northernmost model. Its such a crappy model when it doesnt benefit me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 RGEM northernmost model. Its such a crappy model when it doesnt benefit me Decent batch of frozen before the rain though. Slippery morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Whitetail bullseye. We had several of those in December 2014. That was an awesome month up there. Can't believe I have to work!!!!!!!! Killing me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Man. The RGEM is a mess out here. .6 of frozen slop. Not as good of a snow solution. But a ton of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Nam is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Nam is awful 12km... 3km not out yet that far... But 12km is almost nothing here lol... showers in the afternoon and not much else around DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Nam is awful Yes it’s so beyond bad that the light from bad won’t reach it for a 1000years. But I don’t care. I never liked this event even out west. High in the mid 40s and then a big thump followed by ice. Not this winter. This weekend had a departing airmass that was frigid. Not a great set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Yes it’s so beyond bad that the light from bad won’t reach it for a 1000years. But I don’t care. I never liked this event even out west. High in the mid 40s and then a big thump followed by ice. Not this winter. This weekend had a departing airmass that was frigid. Not a great set up. Lol you were all over how terrible super bowl Sunday was and look what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 The angle that the precip comes in is really killing us. Looks pretty dry for DCA before changeover to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 What a disaster. We invent ways to trend bad. Worst angle ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol you were all over how terrible super bowl Sunday was and look what happened You’re right. What do I know. Maybe it will be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The angle that the precip comes in is really killing us. Looks pretty dry for DCA before changeover to rain Some of the mesos had a better look and it had to do with how they placed the developing low. I’m on mobile or else I’d pull up a bunch of images but the NAMs have the low developing in central Kentucky then moving up the spine of the Apps, while the runs that work have it closer to a TN-then who knows where pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3K is still pretty messy throughout the area. A mess for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 NAM3 has a little more with the initial precip around dawn (although mostly for DC and north), and it then looks like a Sunday repeat through noon - temperatures right around 32 along I-95 and just bellow to the northwest. The roads would be fine, but the trees would glaze up good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The latest runs certainly are putting a damper on any front end snow potential outside the northern areas of MD, but I wouldn’t completely sleep on the icing aspect of the system. One or two degrees colder at the ground, and we have a more prolonged icing risk. Certainly a school decision nightmare incoming. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: The latest runs certainly are putting a damper on any front end snow potential outside the northern areas of MD, but I wouldn’t completely sleep on the icing aspect of the system. One or two degrees colder at the ground, and we have a more prolonged icing risk. Certainly a school decision nightmare incoming. . The schools will be in no-man's land for sure, but what's different here is that we'll probably hit 40 Tuesday and then only drop to a couple of degrees below freezing early Wednesday. Saturday into Saturday night was considerably colder (and drier). Thinking that the treated roads will be fine Wednesday, and glazing will be limited to trees and such (with temps as currently modeled). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 NAM3 has a little more with the initial precip around dawn (although mostly for DC and north), and it then looks like a Sunday repeat through noon - temperatures right around 32 along I-95 and just bellow to the northwest. The roads would be fine, but the trees would glaze up good.I’m definitely getting deja vu with this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 NWS kinda bullish on ice as you go N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 either this whole event is nada, or its a northern tier special that no one wants to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like WWA s up for just south of DC on north and west . Edit...actually all the way down past Charlottesville, Va Seems way over done especially for eastern sections based on their official forecast; which is basically less than an inch of snow. I guess our snow drought has really lowered the bar. We are now Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 oh ffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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