high risk Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Wednesday morning looks like another round of really difficult decisions for the local school systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The easterly component does help there, and areas to the west out near Frederick to WV are probably in a better spot for prolonged icing in that kind of setup, but if you really want to lock in cold, we want really light winds to calm. That shows a pretty stout surface inversion layer present to trap the cold near the ground. There's nothing we can do above the ground for later in the morning or afternoon with the high to the north on the move and southwesterlies working in on the eastern flank of the low. We can do what we do best with CAD, and that's my biggest concern. The biggest question beforehand is how fast can qpf shield reach into the area while the thermal profiles are still ripe for snow. I think areas north of I-70 are in play for a thump before any flip. I missed a pretty sig ice event yesterday by 1-2 degrees. After a good glaze, the temp hovered at 33 for hours as the rain came down. It's funny how you learn the little microclimates around your immediate area. I live in a valley that faces SSE and opens up wide to Loudon Co. We seem to warm quickly on a light S wind as it funnels right up the valley...on the other hand, add a little easterly component and the cold air remains trapped. Not an ideal setup but as far as interesting weather goes...its all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 40s40 seconds ago More NAM appears to be pulling typical over amplification at range allowing an unlikely early phase. Not buying it one bit. Rarely see high pressure rapidly xfer it's heights east through a cell. Rarely see a low transfer energy from Tennessee to Ohio. Faulty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 the 850 temps really suck for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ji said: the 850 temps really suck for this event Yea, not getting a trend towards a strong push in the mids and time is getting short. Not our year man. Early misses in all directions and now we get the precip and miss the column by a hair or 2. Brings back the NAD acronym. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12z GFS not nearly as nice as 06z for northern tier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Looks to me like a repeat of what we just had though maybe less snow. 3 km holds in the cold air pretty long at thee surface. Most of the year it's been a tad cold but for yesterday it was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12z GFS not nearly as nice as 06z for northern tier Fell apart after you got roped in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, mappy said: 12z GFS not nearly as nice as 06z for northern tier Fell apart after you got roped in okie dokie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The GEM has backed off on it's thump as well. Not great trends at 12Z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 What's the definition of insanity again? Just not our winter folks. The good news is that another bad winter makes it more likely a good one is coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: What's the definition of insanity again? Just not our winter folks. The good news is that another bad winter makes it more likely a good one is coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 euro has snow in my backyard at 7am lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, Ji said: euro has snow in my backyard at 7am lol As long as you ignore the QPF totals it's a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: As long as you ignore the QPF totals it's a good run. i actually do. the euro seems too dry in most cases especially a few days out. Ill just take the euro precip type and Nam totals and multiply by 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: i actually do. the euro seems too dry in most cases especially a few days out. Ill just take the euro precip type and Nam totals and multiply by 2 Sounds good to me. I'll do the same except multiply by 2.5 so I have room to back it down and still get a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The WRF models on TTT (ARW, ARW2, NMM) all look interesting and they performed pretty well yesterday with temps. They have the angle that the precip gets to us looking much nicer, supporting a decent period of snow/mix for pretty much everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 this has to show up in some shape form or fashion on every event. We suck at cold angles and precip angles. I love when a storm is coming from the south...and PA is getting crushed while we are still dry lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Check out the high to north! At this stage, it's too far north, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Euro looks like a carbon copy of yesterday's storm for my yard. Close to 0.20" before we lose 850, another 0.10" or so before the surface goes above freezing, and then a bunch of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12k NAM looks solidly sloppy for NW of the cities. If precip could make it into the closer burbs (as it does in the WRF suites) it should be mixed precip for a few hours there as well. vs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 NAM trended a bit colder...thump idea and a little more ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: NAM trended a bit colder...thump idea and a little more ice The placement of the high is almost ideal. We just need it to camp longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: NAM trended a bit colder...thump idea and a little more ice lol at the TT maps... 6"+ MRB to HGR and to the NW of there on 18z 12km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: lol at the TT maps... 6"+ MRB to HGR and to the NW of there on 18z 12km NAM Yes please! I guess we haven't had a good NAM'ming yet this year have we? Although it seems the 3K has been doing better in that dept this year -- as Wes mentioned earlier, it handled temps pretty well for yesterday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 hours ago, osfan24 said: What's the definition of insanity again? Just not our winter folks. The good news is that another bad winter makes it more likely a good one is coming soon. What I would like would be models that had some sort of accuracy more than three days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: lol at the TT maps... 6"+ MRB to HGR and to the NW of there on 18z 12km NAM That's because it's tallying sleet into the snow accumulation. Looking at the TT positive snow depth change is a lot more useful here. That's not to say there is no chance of a front end thump, as you noted that some of the Hi-Res Window runs are snowier; it's just that the NAM 10:1 snow accum maps here are telling a misleading story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 the dew point monitoring/reporting will be strong tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 In response to @NorthArlington101 post above: If 12z WRF-ARW were to be accepted -- it gets snow into DCA at hour 45 (09z WED) or so... and looks like it would be a decent 2-4 hr snow "event" before switch to freezing rain. Hr 48 (12z THUR) sounding is 29/29 at the surface in Fairfax County, but its quickly becoming isothermal as you go upstairs. Its a TT map... but it suggests around 2" of snow has fallen as the run ends with possibly a little bit more to come. 12z WRF-ARW2 looks quite similar... interesting both suggest 2" of snow by 12z WED... early and quick burst of snow leads to this. 12z WRF-ARW2 starts as snow at 08z WED... switches to freezing rain by 12z WED. 12z WRF-ARW2 says its 29/29 as well in Fairfax County, with the 800-850 layer just above zero - so more freezing rain to come -- for reference, EZF is 31/31 at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Even though the high would help initially, it really races off the coast since there's no blocking. That couldn't be seen as well from the tt euro frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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