WesternFringe Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 33/29 down here to the SW. Temp has been dropping quickly in the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhode Islander in Balto Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 31.5 / 19 in Parkville 2 miles west of I-95, with clear skies. Nice steady drop in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 29/24 The new NAM is not looking good at 850. Pure ice storm incoming according to it. And we were having so much fun too with these dropping temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: And we were having so much fun too with these dropping temps. The one positive I am seeing is that it is already too warm at the surface on this run. So maybe it is wrong at the upper levels too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 NAM doesnt have much precip around in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allisong Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 29/24 under clear skies here in Gaithersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: The one positive I am seeing is that it is already too warm at the surface on this run. So maybe it is wrong at the upper levels too? Maybe but the lack of precip is not inspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 29/24 The new NAM is not looking good at 850. Pure ice storm incoming according to it. Dry through 10:00 a.m.as all the precip slides to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Looks like Frederick County in MD, Frederick County VA, Clarke County VA, and Jefferson County WV got updated in their WWA to around two tenths of an inch of ice... could be WSW maybe later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Currently 30.8 degrees. Dropped 8 degrees in 4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: NAM doesnt have much precip around in the morning. Yeah....Would like to see this juice up for the initial WAA precip. NAM is almost dry until mid morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Through 10 am. Not much going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristymac03 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: Got to love VA. Frederick Co. will not call anything till 5am and that will most likely be a delay with a re-evaluation at 7am. That is so they can put the bob sled runners on the busses. 23/26 under calm clear skies over here. I was hoping Frederick county would give me something tonight... a girl can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: NAM doesnt have much precip around in the morning. HRRR supports this idea. A slight amount moves in around 5am-6am, then it is just very spotty and light till about about 10-11am when the main batch hits. By then, it is probably rainy except for western/high elevation areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 29/23 Adelphi/College Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Someone find a model with more precip. Stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Mdecoy said: HRRR supports this idea. A slight amount moves in around 5am-6am, then it is just very spotty and light till about about 10-11am when the main batch hits. By then, it is probably rainy except for western/high elevation areas. This has been what has been modeled all day, although the NAM has been the driest, but we hashed out that it has a typical bias to do that. The first wave of light warm advection precip arrives early to disrupt the rush hour, and we then get a break for a few hours before the main frontal band arrives. The big question is whether that "lull" is really dry or if it's a prolonged period of freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Clueless said: Someone find a model with more precip. Stat. The RGEM was pretty juicy at 18Z. Lets see if it folds in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 NAM 1.5 "fire weather nest" was placed over our region at 18z: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ shows the retreat of the cold air pretty nicely as we go through the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The Swiss model seems to have the best handle on 9pm temps. The RGEM / HRDPS are too cold, and the 3k NAM is a little too warm, particularly south of DC. Here's what the 18z Swiss model though temps would be now. Here's a map of current temps from wunderground (if anyone knows of a site with a better map, please let me know). The 18z Swiss model shifted precip from 12z and lost the big area of freezing fog. Still a significant ice storm for Westminster though. I'm not sure how good it is for precip, but so far I've been impressed with how well it handles surface temps. eta: Updated the map with a wider zoom at 9:13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 According to the NAM get your sleep tonight children. The School Bus is coming in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3km NAM has part of the main slug as ZR from 11 am-12 pm almost surgically precisely in the zones that LWX had the later 1 pm end time for the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 HRRR shifted back towards a wetter early thump so I’m putting all my eggs in that basket. Probably a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: You’re in SW DC correct? SE DC ... just across river in Randle Highlands. Runs slightly cooler than downtown DC/DCA. Down to 35 now... 35/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: HRRR shifted back towards a wetter early thump so I’m putting all my eggs in that basket. Probably a bad idea. Yup, once again showing to not use the HRRR more than a few hours out. Always jumpy past that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Joshfsu123 said: SE DC ... just across river in Randle Highlands. Runs slightly cooler than downtown DC/DCA. Down to 35 now... 35/26 Cool. Not sure it would matter if you were at 25 however. I was getting mentally amped about temps but without precip it’s just cold. Tough winter for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Too much to ask for that slug of precip in SW Virginia to maintain its current heading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: Too much to ask for that slug of precip in SW Virginia to maintain its current heading? Was just about to say it looks like it's heading right for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Winter Weather Advisory expanded to include Fredericksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Winter Weather Advisory expanded to include Fredericksburg LWX must see something we don’t. They do a great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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